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Structures of Low-Level Wind and Convection in the Pregenesis Environment of Western Caribbean Tropical Cyclones.

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Title: Structures of Low-Level Wind and Convection in the Pregenesis Environment of Western Caribbean Tropical Cyclones.
Authors: Wilson, Alexis V.1 (AUTHOR), Majumdar, Sharanya J.1 (AUTHOR), Zawislak, Jonathan A.2,3,4 (AUTHOR), Dunion, Jason P.3,4 (AUTHOR)
Source: Monthly Weather Review. Nov2025, Vol. 153 Issue 11, p2513-2534. 22p.
Subjects: Tropical cyclones, Cyclogenesis, Water vapor transport, Atmospheric boundary layer, Atmospheric waves, Heat convection
Geographic Terms: Panama, Caribbean
Abstract: Prior to tropical cyclogenesis events in the western Caribbean region, low-level jets in the Caribbean and eastern North Pacific (EPAC) exhibit differences from climatology. Combined with local topography, the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) and Choco low-level jet modulate low-level convergence and precipitation. Using reanalysis and satellite data, low-level wind and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) are analyzed in the pregenesis environment of 85 western Caribbean genesis cases. A significant westerly zonal wind anomaly extends from the southwestern Caribbean into the EPAC, corresponding to a weaker CLLJ and a stronger westerly component of the Choco jet. Concurrently, a significant southerly meridional wind anomaly centered around Panama indicates a northward extension of the Choco jet with a stronger southerly component, resulting in moisture transport into the southwestern Caribbean. Combined with a weaker western branch of the CLLJ, this leads to enhanced convection in the western Caribbean prior to genesis. These significant low-level wind and OLR anomalies are still evident after excluding genesis cases preceded by the westerly phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), albeit developing closer to genesis than westerly MJO cases. A westward-propagating negative OLR anomaly indicates these cases are also frequently associated with African easterly waves (AEWs). A case study of pre-Hurricane Ida (2021) supports these findings, in which a rapidly weakening western branch of the CLLJ and enhanced cross-Panama flow from a strong Choco jet helped initiate and sustain a mesoscale convective system in the southwestern Caribbean, later undergoing genesis after becoming embedded within a passing AEW. Significance Statement: The formation of tropical cyclones in the western Caribbean results in storms that are more likely to make landfall than other Atlantic storms, yet they receive far less attention. This study aims to identify patterns in the low-level winds unique to the Caribbean that may lead to the formation of tropical cyclones in this region. We found that a decrease in the strength of the Caribbean low-level jet and a stronger Choco low-level jet frequently occurred prior to tropical cyclone formation, leading to increased low-level convergence and convection in the western Caribbean. Our results highlight a need to better understand how these jets evolve on shorter time scales to more accurately predict tropical cyclone formation in the western Caribbean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Monthly Weather Review is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Structures of Low-Level Wind and Convection in the Pregenesis Environment of Western Caribbean Tropical Cyclones.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Monthly+Weather+Review%22">Monthly Weather Review</searchLink>. Nov2025, Vol. 153 Issue 11, p2513-2534. 22p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tropical+cyclones%22">Tropical cyclones</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cyclogenesis%22">Cyclogenesis</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Water+vapor+transport%22">Water vapor transport</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+boundary+layer%22">Atmospheric boundary layer</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+waves%22">Atmospheric waves</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Heat+convection%22">Heat convection</searchLink>
– Name: SubjectGeographic
  Label: Geographic Terms
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Panama%22">Panama</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Caribbean%22">Caribbean</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Prior to tropical cyclogenesis events in the western Caribbean region, low-level jets in the Caribbean and eastern North Pacific (EPAC) exhibit differences from climatology. Combined with local topography, the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) and Choco low-level jet modulate low-level convergence and precipitation. Using reanalysis and satellite data, low-level wind and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) are analyzed in the pregenesis environment of 85 western Caribbean genesis cases. A significant westerly zonal wind anomaly extends from the southwestern Caribbean into the EPAC, corresponding to a weaker CLLJ and a stronger westerly component of the Choco jet. Concurrently, a significant southerly meridional wind anomaly centered around Panama indicates a northward extension of the Choco jet with a stronger southerly component, resulting in moisture transport into the southwestern Caribbean. Combined with a weaker western branch of the CLLJ, this leads to enhanced convection in the western Caribbean prior to genesis. These significant low-level wind and OLR anomalies are still evident after excluding genesis cases preceded by the westerly phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), albeit developing closer to genesis than westerly MJO cases. A westward-propagating negative OLR anomaly indicates these cases are also frequently associated with African easterly waves (AEWs). A case study of pre-Hurricane Ida (2021) supports these findings, in which a rapidly weakening western branch of the CLLJ and enhanced cross-Panama flow from a strong Choco jet helped initiate and sustain a mesoscale convective system in the southwestern Caribbean, later undergoing genesis after becoming embedded within a passing AEW. Significance Statement: The formation of tropical cyclones in the western Caribbean results in storms that are more likely to make landfall than other Atlantic storms, yet they receive far less attention. This study aims to identify patterns in the low-level winds unique to the Caribbean that may lead to the formation of tropical cyclones in this region. We found that a decrease in the strength of the Caribbean low-level jet and a stronger Choco low-level jet frequently occurred prior to tropical cyclone formation, leading to increased low-level convergence and convection in the western Caribbean. Our results highlight a need to better understand how these jets evolve on shorter time scales to more accurately predict tropical cyclone formation in the western Caribbean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Monthly Weather Review is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1175/MWR-D-24-0266.1
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 22
        StartPage: 2513
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Tropical cyclones
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Cyclogenesis
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Water vapor transport
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric boundary layer
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric waves
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Heat convection
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Panama
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Caribbean
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Structures of Low-Level Wind and Convection in the Pregenesis Environment of Western Caribbean Tropical Cyclones.
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            NameFull: Wilson, Alexis V.
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            NameFull: Zawislak, Jonathan A.
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            – D: 01
              M: 11
              Text: Nov2025
              Type: published
              Y: 2025
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