The Role of Ocean Processes in Future Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Winter Precipitation Changes.
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| Title: | The Role of Ocean Processes in Future Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Winter Precipitation Changes. |
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| Authors: | Liberty-Levi, Noga1 (AUTHOR) noga.liberty@weizmann.ac.il, Chemke, Rei1 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Journal of Climate. Nov2025, Vol. 38 Issue 22, p6413-6426. 14p. |
| Subjects: | Climate change, Ocean dynamics, Fluid dynamics, Temperate climate, Meteorological precipitation, Heat transfer, Greenhouse gases, Climatic zones |
| Geographic Terms: | Northern Hemisphere, Atlantic Ocean, Pacific Ocean |
| Abstract: | In response to anthropogenic emissions, winter net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation) in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes is projected to considerably intensify by the end of this century. Previous studies argued for the importance of surface quantities in setting precipitation changes. Thus, to elucidate the future changes in precipitation, it is crucial to examine the changes in ocean processes, as they play a fundamental part in the surface response to anthropogenic emissions. In this study, we use a hierarchy of ocean coupling simulations to quantify the relative roles of the ocean, and its dynamic and thermodynamic components, in the projected intensification of Northern Hemisphere midlatitude winter net precipitation. We find that the increase in midlatitude net precipitation over land and the Pacific Ocean stems from the impact of thermodynamic ocean processes, which mostly act to warm the surface, increase the meridional moisture gradient, and thus the moisture flux convergence by midlatitude eddies. In contrast, over the Atlantic Ocean, dynamic ocean processes modify the zonal moisture gradient, therefore increasing the convergence of moisture over that region. Our results highlight the importance of better investigating and monitoring ocean–atmosphere coupling processes to improve our preparedness for future large-scale climate change. Significance Statement: Winter net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation) over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes is projected to intensify by the end of this century due to anthropogenic emissions. It is essential to better understand the mechanism underlying this intensification, since it will have a significant impact on society and ecosystems. We find that over land and the Pacific Ocean, thermodynamic ocean processes are responsible for the net precipitation increase, while over the Atlantic Ocean the intensification of net precipitation is due to dynamic ocean processes. Our results emphasize that better investigating and monitoring the changes in ocean processes is necessary to better prepare for future climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: | Engineering Source |
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| Abstract: | In response to anthropogenic emissions, winter net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation) in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes is projected to considerably intensify by the end of this century. Previous studies argued for the importance of surface quantities in setting precipitation changes. Thus, to elucidate the future changes in precipitation, it is crucial to examine the changes in ocean processes, as they play a fundamental part in the surface response to anthropogenic emissions. In this study, we use a hierarchy of ocean coupling simulations to quantify the relative roles of the ocean, and its dynamic and thermodynamic components, in the projected intensification of Northern Hemisphere midlatitude winter net precipitation. We find that the increase in midlatitude net precipitation over land and the Pacific Ocean stems from the impact of thermodynamic ocean processes, which mostly act to warm the surface, increase the meridional moisture gradient, and thus the moisture flux convergence by midlatitude eddies. In contrast, over the Atlantic Ocean, dynamic ocean processes modify the zonal moisture gradient, therefore increasing the convergence of moisture over that region. Our results highlight the importance of better investigating and monitoring ocean–atmosphere coupling processes to improve our preparedness for future large-scale climate change. Significance Statement: Winter net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation) over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes is projected to intensify by the end of this century due to anthropogenic emissions. It is essential to better understand the mechanism underlying this intensification, since it will have a significant impact on society and ecosystems. We find that over land and the Pacific Ocean, thermodynamic ocean processes are responsible for the net precipitation increase, while over the Atlantic Ocean the intensification of net precipitation is due to dynamic ocean processes. Our results emphasize that better investigating and monitoring the changes in ocean processes is necessary to better prepare for future climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 08948755 |
| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0399.1 |
