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End-of-Century Changes in Orographic Precipitation with the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model over the Western United States.

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Title: End-of-Century Changes in Orographic Precipitation with the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model over the Western United States.
Authors: Currier, William Ryan1 (AUTHOR) william.r.currier@noaa.gov, McCrary, Rachel2 (AUTHOR), Abel, Mimi Rose1 (AUTHOR), Eidhammer, Trude2 (AUTHOR), Kruyt, Bert2 (AUTHOR), Smith, Abigail2 (AUTHOR), Enzminger, Thomas2 (AUTHOR), Mahoney, Kelly1 (AUTHOR), Cifelli, Rob1 (AUTHOR), Gutmann, Ethan D.2 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Hydrometeorology. May2025, Vol. 26 Issue 5, p577-595. 19p.
Subjects: Atmospheric models, Microphysics, Atmospheric circulation, Climate change, Meteorological precipitation, Precipitation forecasting
Geographic Terms: United States, West (U.S.), Pacific Northwest, Cascade Range
Abstract: Downscaled precipitation projections were created using the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR) model over the western United States to increase the physical realism in orographic precipitation changes. End-of-century simulations from eight models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were downscaled with ICAR and compared to the widely utilized statistically downscaled dataset, localized constructed analogs (LOCAs), to understand where and why projections of cool-season (September–May) precipitation differed. ICAR and LOCA precipitation projections were similar, but their sign differed in hydrologically relevant regions likely due to ICAR's simulation of microphysics and mesoscale dynamics with high-resolution topography (6 km). In the Pacific Northwest, cool-season precipitation projections from ICAR showed an increase on the windward side of the Cascades and no significant change within the lee. This difference between the windward and leeward side was attributed to reduced zonal wind speeds, allowing more time for microphysical processes within ICAR. This contrast is enhanced by rain's faster fall speed compared to snow, limiting transport into the lee. Meanwhile, LOCA projected an increase in precipitation across the Cascades. In the Upper Colorado River basin, LOCA projected an increase in precipitation in high elevation regions (>3000 m), but ICAR projected no significant change or a decrease in precipitation. High elevation differences were most evident in the spring and fall and were also attributed to a snow-to-rain transition and dynamical processes that impacted orographic enhancement within ICAR. Idealized, controlled studies are needed to better isolate individual processes, but these results underscore the importance of including microphysics and mesoscale dynamics within regional-scale precipitation projections. Significance Statement: A set of global climate model simulations was downscaled using an atmospheric model that contains key physical equations, referred to as Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR). ICAR was used to examine projected changes in end-of-century cool-season precipitation over mountains in the western United States. Precipitation projections from ICAR were similar to projections that used statistical relationships to downscale climate projections. However, projections differed between ICAR and statistically downscaled datasets in whether they increased, decreased, or stayed the same in specific, hydrologically relevant regions such as the eastern Cascades and high elevation areas of the Upper Colorado River basin. These differences were attributed to the simulation of physical processes in ICAR. The results highlight the importance of kilometer-scale atmospheric processes in regional climate projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Hydrometeorology is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: End-of-Century Changes in Orographic Precipitation with the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model over the Western United States.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Currier%2C+William+Ryan%22">Currier, William Ryan</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> william.r.currier@noaa.gov</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22McCrary%2C+Rachel%22">McCrary, Rachel</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Abel%2C+Mimi+Rose%22">Abel, Mimi Rose</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Eidhammer%2C+Trude%22">Eidhammer, Trude</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kruyt%2C+Bert%22">Kruyt, Bert</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Smith%2C+Abigail%22">Smith, Abigail</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Enzminger%2C+Thomas%22">Enzminger, Thomas</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mahoney%2C+Kelly%22">Mahoney, Kelly</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Cifelli%2C+Rob%22">Cifelli, Rob</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Gutmann%2C+Ethan+D%2E%22">Gutmann, Ethan D.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Hydrometeorology%22">Journal of Hydrometeorology</searchLink>. May2025, Vol. 26 Issue 5, p577-595. 19p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+models%22">Atmospheric models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Microphysics%22">Microphysics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+circulation%22">Atmospheric circulation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Meteorological+precipitation%22">Meteorological precipitation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Precipitation+forecasting%22">Precipitation forecasting</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22United+States%22">United States</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22West+%28U%2ES%2E%29%22">West (U.S.)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Pacific+Northwest%22">Pacific Northwest</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cascade+Range%22">Cascade Range</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Downscaled precipitation projections were created using the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR) model over the western United States to increase the physical realism in orographic precipitation changes. End-of-century simulations from eight models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were downscaled with ICAR and compared to the widely utilized statistically downscaled dataset, localized constructed analogs (LOCAs), to understand where and why projections of cool-season (September–May) precipitation differed. ICAR and LOCA precipitation projections were similar, but their sign differed in hydrologically relevant regions likely due to ICAR's simulation of microphysics and mesoscale dynamics with high-resolution topography (6 km). In the Pacific Northwest, cool-season precipitation projections from ICAR showed an increase on the windward side of the Cascades and no significant change within the lee. This difference between the windward and leeward side was attributed to reduced zonal wind speeds, allowing more time for microphysical processes within ICAR. This contrast is enhanced by rain's faster fall speed compared to snow, limiting transport into the lee. Meanwhile, LOCA projected an increase in precipitation across the Cascades. In the Upper Colorado River basin, LOCA projected an increase in precipitation in high elevation regions (>3000 m), but ICAR projected no significant change or a decrease in precipitation. High elevation differences were most evident in the spring and fall and were also attributed to a snow-to-rain transition and dynamical processes that impacted orographic enhancement within ICAR. Idealized, controlled studies are needed to better isolate individual processes, but these results underscore the importance of including microphysics and mesoscale dynamics within regional-scale precipitation projections. Significance Statement: A set of global climate model simulations was downscaled using an atmospheric model that contains key physical equations, referred to as Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR). ICAR was used to examine projected changes in end-of-century cool-season precipitation over mountains in the western United States. Precipitation projections from ICAR were similar to projections that used statistical relationships to downscale climate projections. However, projections differed between ICAR and statistically downscaled datasets in whether they increased, decreased, or stayed the same in specific, hydrologically relevant regions such as the eastern Cascades and high elevation areas of the Upper Colorado River basin. These differences were attributed to the simulation of physical processes in ICAR. The results highlight the importance of kilometer-scale atmospheric processes in regional climate projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Hydrometeorology is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1175/JHM-D-24-0071.1
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 19
        StartPage: 577
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Microphysics
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric circulation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Meteorological precipitation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Precipitation forecasting
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: United States
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: West (U.S.)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Pacific Northwest
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Cascade Range
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: End-of-Century Changes in Orographic Precipitation with the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model over the Western United States.
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            – D: 01
              M: 05
              Text: May2025
              Type: published
              Y: 2025
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