Developing Superpave Bitumen Performance Grading in Ethiopia: Adapting to Historical and Future Climate Condition.
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| Title: | Developing Superpave Bitumen Performance Grading in Ethiopia: Adapting to Historical and Future Climate Condition. |
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| Authors: | Hailemariam, Birhanu Demissie1 (AUTHOR) birhanudemareg@gmail.com, Melaku, Robeam Solomon1 (AUTHOR), Esheti, Shambel Assefa1 (AUTHOR), Biswas, Arnab1 (AUTHOR) arnbiswas@wiley.com |
| Source: | Advances in Civil Engineering. 12/20/2025, Vol. 2025, p1-23. 23p. |
| Subjects: | Climate change, Bitumen analysis, Statistics, Bitumen, Climate change forecasts, Asphalt |
| Geographic Terms: | Ethiopia |
| Abstract: | This study is about the Superpave bitumen specification of the performance grading system for Ethiopia, considering historical and future climate conditions. By conducting statistical analysis and examining the performance characteristics of different bitumen grades across varying temperatures. Historical observed data (Tmax and Tmin) from 1990 to 2020 establish the baseline performance grade (PG). Future climate projections from 2020 to 2100, based on two global climate models of (CMIP6) and climate change scenarios, are used to assess future conditions and prediction pavement temperature using Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP) and LTPP models. The findings indicate that, for 50% and 98%, reliability levels, PG58−10 and PG64−10 are predominantly required in historical contexts, yet future projections indicate a notable transition toward PG64−10 and PG70−10, encompassing a larger expanse of the country. Furthermore, the Afar region and western Ethiopia are projected to necessitate PG76−10 in the future. A considerable number of locations in Ethiopia mandate one grade increment due to climate change, exhibiting average percentage increases of 20%, 23%, and 27% for the moderate climate change scenario SSP2 (4.5), and 44%, 27%, and 35% for the hottest climate change scenario SSP5 (8.5) of the study area during 2020–2040, 2040−2070, and 2070–2100, respectively, and in two location are the increment in two grades under the hottest climate change scenario. Additionally, pavement performance grade (PG) and evaluate performance of currently used asphalt grade using the dynamic shear rheometer (DSR)‐test with the SHRP PG determination criteria of penetration‐grade bitumen critical temperature for pet‐grade 40/50, pen‐grade 60/70, pen‐grade 80/100, and pen‐grade 85/100, then the recommended PG grades are PG64−10, PG64−10, PG58−10 and PG58−10, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: | Engineering Source |
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| Abstract: | This study is about the Superpave bitumen specification of the performance grading system for Ethiopia, considering historical and future climate conditions. By conducting statistical analysis and examining the performance characteristics of different bitumen grades across varying temperatures. Historical observed data (Tmax and Tmin) from 1990 to 2020 establish the baseline performance grade (PG). Future climate projections from 2020 to 2100, based on two global climate models of (CMIP6) and climate change scenarios, are used to assess future conditions and prediction pavement temperature using Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP) and LTPP models. The findings indicate that, for 50% and 98%, reliability levels, PG58−10 and PG64−10 are predominantly required in historical contexts, yet future projections indicate a notable transition toward PG64−10 and PG70−10, encompassing a larger expanse of the country. Furthermore, the Afar region and western Ethiopia are projected to necessitate PG76−10 in the future. A considerable number of locations in Ethiopia mandate one grade increment due to climate change, exhibiting average percentage increases of 20%, 23%, and 27% for the moderate climate change scenario SSP2 (4.5), and 44%, 27%, and 35% for the hottest climate change scenario SSP5 (8.5) of the study area during 2020–2040, 2040−2070, and 2070–2100, respectively, and in two location are the increment in two grades under the hottest climate change scenario. Additionally, pavement performance grade (PG) and evaluate performance of currently used asphalt grade using the dynamic shear rheometer (DSR)‐test with the SHRP PG determination criteria of penetration‐grade bitumen critical temperature for pet‐grade 40/50, pen‐grade 60/70, pen‐grade 80/100, and pen‐grade 85/100, then the recommended PG grades are PG64−10, PG64−10, PG58−10 and PG58−10, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 16878086 |
| DOI: | 10.1155/adce/9914238 |
