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Developing Superpave Bitumen Performance Grading in Ethiopia: Adapting to Historical and Future Climate Condition.

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Title: Developing Superpave Bitumen Performance Grading in Ethiopia: Adapting to Historical and Future Climate Condition.
Authors: Hailemariam, Birhanu Demissie1 (AUTHOR) birhanudemareg@gmail.com, Melaku, Robeam Solomon1 (AUTHOR), Esheti, Shambel Assefa1 (AUTHOR), Biswas, Arnab1 (AUTHOR) arnbiswas@wiley.com
Source: Advances in Civil Engineering. 12/20/2025, Vol. 2025, p1-23. 23p.
Subjects: Climate change, Bitumen analysis, Statistics, Bitumen, Climate change forecasts, Asphalt
Geographic Terms: Ethiopia
Abstract: This study is about the Superpave bitumen specification of the performance grading system for Ethiopia, considering historical and future climate conditions. By conducting statistical analysis and examining the performance characteristics of different bitumen grades across varying temperatures. Historical observed data (Tmax and Tmin) from 1990 to 2020 establish the baseline performance grade (PG). Future climate projections from 2020 to 2100, based on two global climate models of (CMIP6) and climate change scenarios, are used to assess future conditions and prediction pavement temperature using Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP) and LTPP models. The findings indicate that, for 50% and 98%, reliability levels, PG58−10 and PG64−10 are predominantly required in historical contexts, yet future projections indicate a notable transition toward PG64−10 and PG70−10, encompassing a larger expanse of the country. Furthermore, the Afar region and western Ethiopia are projected to necessitate PG76−10 in the future. A considerable number of locations in Ethiopia mandate one grade increment due to climate change, exhibiting average percentage increases of 20%, 23%, and 27% for the moderate climate change scenario SSP2 (4.5), and 44%, 27%, and 35% for the hottest climate change scenario SSP5 (8.5) of the study area during 2020–2040, 2040−2070, and 2070–2100, respectively, and in two location are the increment in two grades under the hottest climate change scenario. Additionally, pavement performance grade (PG) and evaluate performance of currently used asphalt grade using the dynamic shear rheometer (DSR)‐test with the SHRP PG determination criteria of penetration‐grade bitumen critical temperature for pet‐grade 40/50, pen‐grade 60/70, pen‐grade 80/100, and pen‐grade 85/100, then the recommended PG grades are PG64−10, PG64−10, PG58−10 and PG58−10, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Advances in Civil Engineering is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 190385258
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PubTypeId: academicJournal
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Items – Name: Title
  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: Developing Superpave Bitumen Performance Grading in Ethiopia: Adapting to Historical and Future Climate Condition.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hailemariam%2C+Birhanu+Demissie%22">Hailemariam, Birhanu Demissie</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> birhanudemareg@gmail.com</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Melaku%2C+Robeam+Solomon%22">Melaku, Robeam Solomon</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Esheti%2C+Shambel+Assefa%22">Esheti, Shambel Assefa</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Biswas%2C+Arnab%22">Biswas, Arnab</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> arnbiswas@wiley.com</i>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Advances+in+Civil+Engineering%22">Advances in Civil Engineering</searchLink>. 12/20/2025, Vol. 2025, p1-23. 23p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Bitumen+analysis%22">Bitumen analysis</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Statistics%22">Statistics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Bitumen%22">Bitumen</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change+forecasts%22">Climate change forecasts</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Asphalt%22">Asphalt</searchLink>
– Name: SubjectGeographic
  Label: Geographic Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ethiopia%22">Ethiopia</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: This study is about the Superpave bitumen specification of the performance grading system for Ethiopia, considering historical and future climate conditions. By conducting statistical analysis and examining the performance characteristics of different bitumen grades across varying temperatures. Historical observed data (Tmax and Tmin) from 1990 to 2020 establish the baseline performance grade (PG). Future climate projections from 2020 to 2100, based on two global climate models of (CMIP6) and climate change scenarios, are used to assess future conditions and prediction pavement temperature using Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP) and LTPP models. The findings indicate that, for 50% and 98%, reliability levels, PG58−10 and PG64−10 are predominantly required in historical contexts, yet future projections indicate a notable transition toward PG64−10 and PG70−10, encompassing a larger expanse of the country. Furthermore, the Afar region and western Ethiopia are projected to necessitate PG76−10 in the future. A considerable number of locations in Ethiopia mandate one grade increment due to climate change, exhibiting average percentage increases of 20%, 23%, and 27% for the moderate climate change scenario SSP2 (4.5), and 44%, 27%, and 35% for the hottest climate change scenario SSP5 (8.5) of the study area during 2020–2040, 2040−2070, and 2070–2100, respectively, and in two location are the increment in two grades under the hottest climate change scenario. Additionally, pavement performance grade (PG) and evaluate performance of currently used asphalt grade using the dynamic shear rheometer (DSR)‐test with the SHRP PG determination criteria of penetration‐grade bitumen critical temperature for pet‐grade 40/50, pen‐grade 60/70, pen‐grade 80/100, and pen‐grade 85/100, then the recommended PG grades are PG64−10, PG64−10, PG58−10 and PG58−10, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Advances in Civil Engineering is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1155/adce/9914238
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 23
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Bitumen analysis
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Statistics
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Bitumen
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change forecasts
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Asphalt
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ethiopia
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Developing Superpave Bitumen Performance Grading in Ethiopia: Adapting to Historical and Future Climate Condition.
        Type: main
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          Name:
            NameFull: Hailemariam, Birhanu Demissie
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            NameFull: Melaku, Robeam Solomon
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            NameFull: Esheti, Shambel Assefa
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            NameFull: Biswas, Arnab
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            – D: 20
              M: 12
              Text: 12/20/2025
              Type: published
              Y: 2025
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              Value: 2025
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            – TitleFull: Advances in Civil Engineering
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