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Unveiling the Global Oceanic Influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Using Pacemaker Experiments.

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Title: Unveiling the Global Oceanic Influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Using Pacemaker Experiments.
Authors: Jiang, Weimin1 (AUTHOR), Frankignoul, Claude2 (AUTHOR), Gastineau, Guillaume2 (AUTHOR), Mignot, Juliette2 (AUTHOR), Li, Feili1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Climate. Dec2025, Vol. 38 Issue 23, p7089-7104. 16p.
Subjects: Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, La Niña, Ocean temperature, Ecological impact, Atmospheric models
Geographic Terms: Pacific Ocean, Atlantic Ocean
Abstract: Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) significantly impacts regional and global climate, as evidenced by observations and climate model simulations. Previous sensitivity experiments investigating the AMV were mostly based on climate model simulations in which the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (NASSTs) were nudged to a fixed AMV pattern. Here, the global influence of AMV is explored using an ensemble of pacemaker experiments where NASSTs are nudged to the time-varying observational records. Ten ensemble members proved sufficient to distinguish forced signals from internal climate variability. Using high-pass-filtered data to inform how the response to the AMV is established, we confirm that the AMV primarily affects the global ocean through its tropical component. The oceanic response to a warm AMV anomaly unfolds in four phases: 1) warming of the western Pacific warm pool and development of anomalous easterlies in the western Indo-Pacific driven by diabatic heating over the tropical Atlantic within the first 6 months, 2) eastward propagation of equatorial thermocline anomalies and establishment of La Niña–like conditions in the eastern Pacific after 7–10 months, 3) persistence of La Niña conditions during 11–20 months via Bjerknes feedback and weakening of the Aleutian low through tropical teleconnections, and 4) emergence of a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific after 21–25 months. Our findings highlight the importance of using time-varying SST observations in pacemaker experiments to capture the full complexity of interbasin connections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Unveiling the Global Oceanic Influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Using Pacemaker Experiments.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atlantic+multidecadal+oscillation%22">Atlantic multidecadal oscillation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22La+Niña%22">La Niña</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ocean+temperature%22">Ocean temperature</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ecological+impact%22">Ecological impact</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+models%22">Atmospheric models</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Pacific+Ocean%22">Pacific Ocean</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atlantic+Ocean%22">Atlantic Ocean</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) significantly impacts regional and global climate, as evidenced by observations and climate model simulations. Previous sensitivity experiments investigating the AMV were mostly based on climate model simulations in which the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (NASSTs) were nudged to a fixed AMV pattern. Here, the global influence of AMV is explored using an ensemble of pacemaker experiments where NASSTs are nudged to the time-varying observational records. Ten ensemble members proved sufficient to distinguish forced signals from internal climate variability. Using high-pass-filtered data to inform how the response to the AMV is established, we confirm that the AMV primarily affects the global ocean through its tropical component. The oceanic response to a warm AMV anomaly unfolds in four phases: 1) warming of the western Pacific warm pool and development of anomalous easterlies in the western Indo-Pacific driven by diabatic heating over the tropical Atlantic within the first 6 months, 2) eastward propagation of equatorial thermocline anomalies and establishment of La Niña–like conditions in the eastern Pacific after 7–10 months, 3) persistence of La Niña conditions during 11–20 months via Bjerknes feedback and weakening of the Aleutian low through tropical teleconnections, and 4) emergence of a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific after 21–25 months. Our findings highlight the importance of using time-varying SST observations in pacemaker experiments to capture the full complexity of interbasin connections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0088.1
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 16
        StartPage: 7089
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: La Niña
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ocean temperature
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ecological impact
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric models
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      – SubjectFull: Pacific Ocean
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atlantic Ocean
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Unveiling the Global Oceanic Influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Using Pacemaker Experiments.
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            NameFull: Jiang, Weimin
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            NameFull: Frankignoul, Claude
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            NameFull: Mignot, Juliette
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            – D: 01
              M: 12
              Text: Dec2025
              Type: published
              Y: 2025
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              Value: 38
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