View in EDS HTML Full Text PDF Full Text

A Climatology of Lee Cyclones across the Central United States, 1980–2021.

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Title: A Climatology of Lee Cyclones across the Central United States, 1980–2021.
Authors: Larson, McKenzie L.1 (AUTHOR) mckenzie.larson@colorado.edu, Winters, Andrew C.1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Monthly Weather Review. Dec2025, Vol. 153 Issue 12, p2613-2633. 21p.
Subjects: Cyclogenesis, Cyclones, Machine learning, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Organization), Climatology, Meteorological precipitation, Weather
Geographic Terms: United States
Abstract: The central United States is a favorable region for cyclogenesis east of the Rocky Mountains. This region's distinctive location in the center of the continental United States and juxtaposition with complex topography contribute to unique forecast challenges, including uncertainties in the prediction of extratropical cyclone (ETC) intensity and location, as well as concomitant areas of heavy precipitation and strong winds. Consequently, this study utilizes machine learning techniques to investigate the variability of cold-season (October–May) ETC characteristics across the central United States. ETCs are identified within the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) during 1980–2021 using a method for ETC detection adopted from previously published work. This ETC dataset subsequently facilitates an analysis of the monthly and seasonal frequency of central U.S. ETCs, for which an increase in cold-season ETC frequency is found for both winter and springtime ETCs. A self-organizing map (SOM) is trained on mean sea level pressure anomalies from ERA5 during ETC events and used to examine the variability in large-scale weather regimes conducive to central U.S. ETCs. These regimes are categorized into five clusters: 1) the Mississippi River anticyclone, 2) the Canadian anticyclone, 3) the Northern Plains cyclone, 4) the Central Plains cyclone, and 5) the Southern Plains cyclone clusters. One main finding is a significant increase of ETCs that are categorized into the Canadian anticyclone cluster, indicating that a subset of weaker central U.S. ETCs are becoming more common. The extent to which the characteristics of near-ETC environments (e.g., moisture sources, upper-level jet stream structure, quasigeostrophic ascent, and precipitation) vary as a function of each SOM cluster is also investigated. Significance Statement: Extratropical cyclones frequently produce strong precipitation and winds across the central United States, resulting in profound societal impacts. This study investigates the various atmospheric environments (e.g., moisture sources, upper-level jet stream structure, and precipitation) that accompany cyclone development in this region. Machine learning methods are used to identify distinct categories of cyclone events, and the different upper- and lower-level environments associated with these cyclone categories are explored. We find that while central U.S. ETCs have been increasing during 1980–2021, weaker ETCs associated with higher pressures and less moisture are particularly becoming more common. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Monthly Weather Review is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
Full text is not displayed to guests.
FullText Links:
  – Type: pdflink
Text:
  Availability: 1
Header DbId: egs
DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 190575904
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
PreciseRelevancyScore: 0
IllustrationInfo
Items – Name: Title
  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: A Climatology of Lee Cyclones across the Central United States, 1980–2021.
– Name: Author
  Label: Authors
  Group: Au
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Larson%2C+McKenzie+L%2E%22">Larson, McKenzie L.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> mckenzie.larson@colorado.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Winters%2C+Andrew+C%2E%22">Winters, Andrew C.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
– Name: TitleSource
  Label: Source
  Group: Src
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Monthly+Weather+Review%22">Monthly Weather Review</searchLink>. Dec2025, Vol. 153 Issue 12, p2613-2633. 21p.
– Name: Subject
  Label: Subjects
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cyclogenesis%22">Cyclogenesis</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cyclones%22">Cyclones</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Machine+learning%22">Machine learning</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22European+Centre+for+Medium-Range+Weather+Forecasts+%28Organization%29%22">European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Organization)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climatology%22">Climatology</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Meteorological+precipitation%22">Meteorological precipitation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Weather%22">Weather</searchLink>
– Name: SubjectGeographic
  Label: Geographic Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22United+States%22">United States</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: The central United States is a favorable region for cyclogenesis east of the Rocky Mountains. This region's distinctive location in the center of the continental United States and juxtaposition with complex topography contribute to unique forecast challenges, including uncertainties in the prediction of extratropical cyclone (ETC) intensity and location, as well as concomitant areas of heavy precipitation and strong winds. Consequently, this study utilizes machine learning techniques to investigate the variability of cold-season (October–May) ETC characteristics across the central United States. ETCs are identified within the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) during 1980–2021 using a method for ETC detection adopted from previously published work. This ETC dataset subsequently facilitates an analysis of the monthly and seasonal frequency of central U.S. ETCs, for which an increase in cold-season ETC frequency is found for both winter and springtime ETCs. A self-organizing map (SOM) is trained on mean sea level pressure anomalies from ERA5 during ETC events and used to examine the variability in large-scale weather regimes conducive to central U.S. ETCs. These regimes are categorized into five clusters: 1) the Mississippi River anticyclone, 2) the Canadian anticyclone, 3) the Northern Plains cyclone, 4) the Central Plains cyclone, and 5) the Southern Plains cyclone clusters. One main finding is a significant increase of ETCs that are categorized into the Canadian anticyclone cluster, indicating that a subset of weaker central U.S. ETCs are becoming more common. The extent to which the characteristics of near-ETC environments (e.g., moisture sources, upper-level jet stream structure, quasigeostrophic ascent, and precipitation) vary as a function of each SOM cluster is also investigated. Significance Statement: Extratropical cyclones frequently produce strong precipitation and winds across the central United States, resulting in profound societal impacts. This study investigates the various atmospheric environments (e.g., moisture sources, upper-level jet stream structure, and precipitation) that accompany cyclone development in this region. Machine learning methods are used to identify distinct categories of cyclone events, and the different upper- and lower-level environments associated with these cyclone categories are explored. We find that while central U.S. ETCs have been increasing during 1980–2021, weaker ETCs associated with higher pressures and less moisture are particularly becoming more common. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Monthly Weather Review is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=egs&AN=190575904
RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1175/MWR-D-25-0013.1
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 21
        StartPage: 2613
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Cyclogenesis
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Cyclones
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Machine learning
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Organization)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climatology
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Meteorological precipitation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Weather
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: United States
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: A Climatology of Lee Cyclones across the Central United States, 1980–2021.
        Type: main
  BibRelationships:
    HasContributorRelationships:
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Larson, McKenzie L.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Winters, Andrew C.
    IsPartOfRelationships:
      – BibEntity:
          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 12
              Text: Dec2025
              Type: published
              Y: 2025
          Identifiers:
            – Type: issn-print
              Value: 00270644
          Numbering:
            – Type: volume
              Value: 153
            – Type: issue
              Value: 12
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Monthly Weather Review
              Type: main
ResultId 1