Climate and species traits give rise to complex phenological dynamics.
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| Title: | Climate and species traits give rise to complex phenological dynamics. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Reis, Gbolahan A.1 (AUTHOR) anthony.reis@usu.edu, Forister, Matthew L.2 (AUTHOR), Halsch, Christopher A.3 (AUTHOR), Dittemore, Clare M.2 (AUTHOR), Shapiro, Arthur M.4 (AUTHOR), Gompert, Zachariah1 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Ecology. Jan2026, Vol. 107 Issue 1, p1-18. 18p. |
| Subjects: | Phenology, Butterflies, Meteorological precipitation, Habitats, Temperature effect, Life history theory, Climate change |
| Abstract: | Climate change has substantially shifted the phenology of many organisms. These shifts vary across species and habitats and are shaped by species' natural history traits and local environmental conditions, yet the relative importance of these drivers remains unclear. Moreover, climate can have diverse effects on different aspects of phenology, such as the timing and duration of activity, but this complexity is rarely captured by commonly used phenological metrics. We used multidecadal butterfly surveys and climate data from five montane sites spanning an elevational gradient to investigate how climate affects different aspects of the annual flight period of 135 butterfly species. Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we modeled annual probability of occurrence distributions for species using polynomial models that capture changes in abundance, timing, and length of flight. Spring maximum and minimum temperatures and winter precipitation were the best predictors of interannual variation in phenology. High winter precipitation, which usually comes in the form of snow, delayed phenology, while warmer spring maximum temperatures advanced phenology across elevations. Even modest increases in spring minimum (nighttime) temperatures caused strong phenological shifts. Climate effects varied among sites, among species within sites, and even among populations of the same species across sites, with particularly pronounced variation among species at a single location. Variation in climate effects was slightly better explained by local climate than by natural history traits. Among natural history traits, voltinism and overwintering stage were particularly influential. Importantly, climate influenced different aspects of the flight period (e.g., timing versus duration) in distinct ways, with both natural history traits and local climate modulating these responses. Our findings highlight the often‐overlooked importance of winter precipitation and nighttime temperatures in shaping phenology and demonstrate the value of considering the entire flight period, rather than distinct aspects alone, to improve our understanding and predictions of species response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Ecology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
| FullText | Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 191211401 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Climate and species traits give rise to complex phenological dynamics. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Reis%2C+Gbolahan+A%2E%22">Reis, Gbolahan A.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> anthony.reis@usu.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Forister%2C+Matthew+L%2E%22">Forister, Matthew L.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Halsch%2C+Christopher+A%2E%22">Halsch, Christopher A.</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dittemore%2C+Clare+M%2E%22">Dittemore, Clare M.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Shapiro%2C+Arthur+M%2E%22">Shapiro, Arthur M.</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Gompert%2C+Zachariah%22">Gompert, Zachariah</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Ecology%22">Ecology</searchLink>. Jan2026, Vol. 107 Issue 1, p1-18. 18p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Phenology%22">Phenology</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Butterflies%22">Butterflies</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Meteorological+precipitation%22">Meteorological precipitation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Habitats%22">Habitats</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Temperature+effect%22">Temperature effect</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Life+history+theory%22">Life history theory</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Climate change has substantially shifted the phenology of many organisms. These shifts vary across species and habitats and are shaped by species' natural history traits and local environmental conditions, yet the relative importance of these drivers remains unclear. Moreover, climate can have diverse effects on different aspects of phenology, such as the timing and duration of activity, but this complexity is rarely captured by commonly used phenological metrics. We used multidecadal butterfly surveys and climate data from five montane sites spanning an elevational gradient to investigate how climate affects different aspects of the annual flight period of 135 butterfly species. Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we modeled annual probability of occurrence distributions for species using polynomial models that capture changes in abundance, timing, and length of flight. Spring maximum and minimum temperatures and winter precipitation were the best predictors of interannual variation in phenology. High winter precipitation, which usually comes in the form of snow, delayed phenology, while warmer spring maximum temperatures advanced phenology across elevations. Even modest increases in spring minimum (nighttime) temperatures caused strong phenological shifts. Climate effects varied among sites, among species within sites, and even among populations of the same species across sites, with particularly pronounced variation among species at a single location. Variation in climate effects was slightly better explained by local climate than by natural history traits. Among natural history traits, voltinism and overwintering stage were particularly influential. Importantly, climate influenced different aspects of the flight period (e.g., timing versus duration) in distinct ways, with both natural history traits and local climate modulating these responses. Our findings highlight the often‐overlooked importance of winter precipitation and nighttime temperatures in shaping phenology and demonstrate the value of considering the entire flight period, rather than distinct aspects alone, to improve our understanding and predictions of species response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Ecology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1002/ecy.70297 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 18 StartPage: 1 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Phenology Type: general – SubjectFull: Butterflies Type: general – SubjectFull: Meteorological precipitation Type: general – SubjectFull: Habitats Type: general – SubjectFull: Temperature effect Type: general – SubjectFull: Life history theory Type: general – SubjectFull: Climate change Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Climate and species traits give rise to complex phenological dynamics. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Reis, Gbolahan A. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Forister, Matthew L. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Halsch, Christopher A. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Dittemore, Clare M. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Shapiro, Arthur M. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Gompert, Zachariah IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 01 Text: Jan2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 00129658 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 107 – Type: issue Value: 1 Titles: – TitleFull: Ecology Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
