Prediction of Rapid Intensification, Eyewall Replacement Cycle, and Inner-Core Structure of ESCS Phailin.
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| Title: | Prediction of Rapid Intensification, Eyewall Replacement Cycle, and Inner-Core Structure of ESCS Phailin. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Reshma, M. S.1 (AUTHOR), Singh, Kuvar Satya2,3 (AUTHOR) kuvarsatya.singh@vit.ac.in, Behera, Swadhin K.3 (AUTHOR) behera@jamstec.go.jp, Bhaskaran, Prasad K.4 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Weather & Forecasting. Jan2026, Vol. 41 Issue 1, p245-264. 20p. |
| Subjects: | Cyclone forecasting, Tropical cyclones, Weather forecasting, Spatial resolution |
| Geographic Terms: | Odisha (India), Indian Ocean, India |
| Abstract: | The present study evaluated the model forecasted intensity, rapid intensification (RI), secondary eyewall formation (SEF), eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), and associated structural features of an extremely severe tropical cyclone that made landfall along the east coast of India. The study utilized the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Model to forecast an extremely severe tropical cyclone Phailin that made landfall on the Odisha coast of eastern India on 12 October 2013, using three different model resolutions (5, 3, and 1.667 km) and forced with different initial conditions. Model-simulated results were compared with available observations obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-fit track, Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA), Doppler weather radar (DWR), and satellite-based datasets. Key findings from this study reveal that the cyclone intensity, in terms of maximum surface wind and minimum sea level pressure, rapid intensification, secondary eyewall formation, eyewall replacement cycle, and associated structural features are well simulated by the model with 1.667-km horizontal resolution. Results indicate that simulated tropical cyclone intensity and structure were poorly forecasted by the 5-km grid but were better simulated by the 1.667-km grid. Furthermore, the simulated cyclone structure, in terms of relative humidity, microphysics latent heating, latent heat flux, and reflectivity, was much better forecasted using the 1.667-km grid. Findings from the study also indicate that the model should essentially be initialized at least 76 h before landfall for improved prediction of ERC, and a model resolution of less than 2 km could essentially resolve the SEF and ERC for intense cyclonic systems in the north Indian Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Weather & Forecasting is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 191287156 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Prediction of Rapid Intensification, Eyewall Replacement Cycle, and Inner-Core Structure of ESCS Phailin. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Reshma%2C+M%2E+S%2E%22">Reshma, M. S.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Singh%2C+Kuvar+Satya%22">Singh, Kuvar Satya</searchLink><relatesTo>2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> kuvarsatya.singh@vit.ac.in</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Behera%2C+Swadhin+K%2E%22">Behera, Swadhin K.</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> behera@jamstec.go.jp</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bhaskaran%2C+Prasad+K%2E%22">Bhaskaran, Prasad K.</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Weather+%26+Forecasting%22">Weather & Forecasting</searchLink>. Jan2026, Vol. 41 Issue 1, p245-264. 20p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cyclone+forecasting%22">Cyclone forecasting</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tropical+cyclones%22">Tropical cyclones</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Weather+forecasting%22">Weather forecasting</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Spatial+resolution%22">Spatial resolution</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Odisha+%28India%29%22">Odisha (India)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Indian+Ocean%22">Indian Ocean</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22India%22">India</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: The present study evaluated the model forecasted intensity, rapid intensification (RI), secondary eyewall formation (SEF), eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), and associated structural features of an extremely severe tropical cyclone that made landfall along the east coast of India. The study utilized the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Model to forecast an extremely severe tropical cyclone Phailin that made landfall on the Odisha coast of eastern India on 12 October 2013, using three different model resolutions (5, 3, and 1.667 km) and forced with different initial conditions. Model-simulated results were compared with available observations obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-fit track, Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA), Doppler weather radar (DWR), and satellite-based datasets. Key findings from this study reveal that the cyclone intensity, in terms of maximum surface wind and minimum sea level pressure, rapid intensification, secondary eyewall formation, eyewall replacement cycle, and associated structural features are well simulated by the model with 1.667-km horizontal resolution. Results indicate that simulated tropical cyclone intensity and structure were poorly forecasted by the 5-km grid but were better simulated by the 1.667-km grid. Furthermore, the simulated cyclone structure, in terms of relative humidity, microphysics latent heating, latent heat flux, and reflectivity, was much better forecasted using the 1.667-km grid. Findings from the study also indicate that the model should essentially be initialized at least 76 h before landfall for improved prediction of ERC, and a model resolution of less than 2 km could essentially resolve the SEF and ERC for intense cyclonic systems in the north Indian Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Weather & Forecasting is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1175/WAF-D-25-0023.1 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 20 StartPage: 245 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Cyclone forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Tropical cyclones Type: general – SubjectFull: Weather forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Spatial resolution Type: general – SubjectFull: Odisha (India) Type: general – SubjectFull: Indian Ocean Type: general – SubjectFull: India Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Prediction of Rapid Intensification, Eyewall Replacement Cycle, and Inner-Core Structure of ESCS Phailin. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Reshma, M. S. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Singh, Kuvar Satya – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Behera, Swadhin K. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Bhaskaran, Prasad K. IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 01 Text: Jan2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 08828156 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 41 – Type: issue Value: 1 Titles: – TitleFull: Weather & Forecasting Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
