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Seismic Performance and Generalized Damage Risk of Modular Cross Laminated Timber Houses Across Ten United States Cities.

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Title: Seismic Performance and Generalized Damage Risk of Modular Cross Laminated Timber Houses Across Ten United States Cities.
Authors: Chininin, Javier A.1 (AUTHOR), Phillips, Adam R.1 (AUTHOR) arp12@vt.edu, Vilguts, Aivars2 (AUTHOR)
Source: Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics. Mar2026, Vol. 55 Issue 3, p687-703. 17p.
Subjects: Modular construction, Seismic response, Earthquake hazard analysis, Laminated wood construction, Earthquake engineering, Structural analysis (Engineering), Sustainable construction
Geographic Terms: United States
Abstract: Housing shortages in the United States and the pursuit of sustainable and resilient communities have positioned cross‐laminated timber (CLT) housing as a promising alternative due to the ability to design for modularity, ease of construction, and low embodied carbon performance. However, the seismic performance of CLT houses had not been thoroughly evaluated. This study assessed the seismic risk and performance of five modular CLT house designs for a range of seismic hazards. The study investigated three research questions: (i) the conditional probability of collapse under the maximum considered earthquake (MCE) intensity, (ii) the variability of collapse fragility curves across the U.S., and (iii) the unconditional probabilities of experiencing generic non‐structural damage and collapse within 50 years for ten representative sites across the U.S. The houses were designed using platform‐constructed CLT shear walls as the lateral‐force‐resisting system, which is a code‐compliant construction method. The houses were symmetric rectilinear buildings with similar shear wall distribution in the two orthogonal directions. The analyses were conducted using a performance‐based earthquake engineering framework. Ground motion datasets were established for three seismic regions: (i) Western U.S. without pulses, (ii) Western U.S. with pulses, and (iii) Central and Eastern U.S. without pulses. The numerical models were developed in OpenSeesPy with idealized nonlinear spring models representing the wall behavior. Multiple stripe analysis was employed to calculate the collapse fragility curves and inter‐story drift distributions. Generic damage fragility curves and the seismic hazard curves for 10 sites across the United States were used to estimate the 50‐year non‐structural damage and collapse probabilities. Results indicate that ground motion characteristics across the U.S. do not significantly impact the collapse fragility curves. Additionally, the houses meet the code‐level targets for both conditional and unconditional probability of collapse at MCE intensity. Intentional over‐design had no substantial impact on reducing generic non‐structural damage probability, so it should be avoided. Instead, the shape of the site‐specific hazard curves had the largest effect on non‐structural damage probability. In summary, the consistent behavior, low collapse risk, and acceptable non‐structural damage probability of modular CLT houses make them a reliable, resilient, and high‐performing seismic housing alternative for any region of the U.S. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
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DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 191376534
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PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
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  Data: Seismic Performance and Generalized Damage Risk of Modular Cross Laminated Timber Houses Across Ten United States Cities.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Chininin%2C+Javier+A%2E%22">Chininin, Javier A.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Phillips%2C+Adam+R%2E%22">Phillips, Adam R.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> arp12@vt.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Vilguts%2C+Aivars%22">Vilguts, Aivars</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Earthquake+Engineering+%26+Structural+Dynamics%22">Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics</searchLink>. Mar2026, Vol. 55 Issue 3, p687-703. 17p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22United+States%22">United States</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Housing shortages in the United States and the pursuit of sustainable and resilient communities have positioned cross‐laminated timber (CLT) housing as a promising alternative due to the ability to design for modularity, ease of construction, and low embodied carbon performance. However, the seismic performance of CLT houses had not been thoroughly evaluated. This study assessed the seismic risk and performance of five modular CLT house designs for a range of seismic hazards. The study investigated three research questions: (i) the conditional probability of collapse under the maximum considered earthquake (MCE) intensity, (ii) the variability of collapse fragility curves across the U.S., and (iii) the unconditional probabilities of experiencing generic non‐structural damage and collapse within 50 years for ten representative sites across the U.S. The houses were designed using platform‐constructed CLT shear walls as the lateral‐force‐resisting system, which is a code‐compliant construction method. The houses were symmetric rectilinear buildings with similar shear wall distribution in the two orthogonal directions. The analyses were conducted using a performance‐based earthquake engineering framework. Ground motion datasets were established for three seismic regions: (i) Western U.S. without pulses, (ii) Western U.S. with pulses, and (iii) Central and Eastern U.S. without pulses. The numerical models were developed in OpenSeesPy with idealized nonlinear spring models representing the wall behavior. Multiple stripe analysis was employed to calculate the collapse fragility curves and inter‐story drift distributions. Generic damage fragility curves and the seismic hazard curves for 10 sites across the United States were used to estimate the 50‐year non‐structural damage and collapse probabilities. Results indicate that ground motion characteristics across the U.S. do not significantly impact the collapse fragility curves. Additionally, the houses meet the code‐level targets for both conditional and unconditional probability of collapse at MCE intensity. Intentional over‐design had no substantial impact on reducing generic non‐structural damage probability, so it should be avoided. Instead, the shape of the site‐specific hazard curves had the largest effect on non‐structural damage probability. In summary, the consistent behavior, low collapse risk, and acceptable non‐structural damage probability of modular CLT houses make them a reliable, resilient, and high‐performing seismic housing alternative for any region of the U.S. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1002/eqe.70110
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 17
        StartPage: 687
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Modular construction
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Seismic response
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Earthquake hazard analysis
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Laminated wood construction
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Earthquake engineering
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Structural analysis (Engineering)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Sustainable construction
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: United States
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Seismic Performance and Generalized Damage Risk of Modular Cross Laminated Timber Houses Across Ten United States Cities.
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            NameFull: Chininin, Javier A.
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            NameFull: Phillips, Adam R.
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              M: 03
              Text: Mar2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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