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Modulation of ENSO–Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency Relationship by Sea Surface Warming of Different Spatial Patterns.

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Title: Modulation of ENSO–Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency Relationship by Sea Surface Warming of Different Spatial Patterns.
Authors: Xu, Mingrui1,2 (AUTHOR), Zhan, Ruifen1,2,3 (AUTHOR) zhanrf@fudan.edu.cn, Zhao, Jiuwei4 (AUTHOR), Wang, Yuqing5 (AUTHOR), Wang, Hui6 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Climate. Feb2026, Vol. 39 Issue 3, p847-860. 14p.
Subjects: El Niño, Cyclogenesis, Climate change, Ocean temperature, Walker circulation, Vertical wind shear, La Niña
Geographic Terms: Pacific Ocean
Abstract: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly modulates tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) at interannual time scales, yet how future sea surface temperature (SST) warming patterns may modify this relationship remains unclear. Here, we use high-resolution climate model simulations to quantify how three distinct SST warming patterns—uniform warming, El Niño–like warming (characterized by enhanced central/eastern Pacific warming), and La Niña–like warming (characterized by suppressed central/eastern Pacific warming)—alter the ENSO–TCGF linkage. We define a strengthening of the ENSO–TCGF relationship as an increase in the magnitude of the TCGF difference between El Niño and La Niña years and a weakening as a decrease in this magnitude. All three warming patterns generally project weakening across most tropical basins. Over the North Atlantic, ENSO's influence is uniformly suppressed, with the suppression intensifying from uniform to El Niño–like to La Niña–like warming. However, in the southeastern western North Pacific, both uniform and El Niño–like warming strengthen the ENSO–TCGF linkage, while La Niña–like warming continues to weaken it. These divergent responses arise from pattern-dependent changes in atmospheric heating, which drive Walker circulation anomalies and in turn regulate local large-scale environmental conditions including vertical wind shear, low-level vorticity, and midtropospheric humidity, thereby modulating the ENSO–TCGF relationship. Our results highlight that the spatial patterns of SST warming, not its magnitude, play a pivotal role in modulating future ENSO–TCGF relationships, with implications for regional cyclone risk and seasonal forecasts. Significance Statement: Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is strongly modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which serves as a key predictor for seasonal TC forecasts. However, future patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) warming remain uncertain, and it is unclear how diverse possible SST warming scenarios may influence the ENSO–TC genesis frequency (TCGF) relationship. This study demonstrates that spatial patterns of SST warming—not the magnitude of warming—play a dominant role in shaping future ENSO–TCGF linkages. While ENSO–TCGF relationships generally weaken under all warming scenarios, a notable strengthening (defined here as an increase in the magnitude of the TCGF difference between El Niño and La Niña years) occurs in the southeastern western North Pacific under uniform and El Niño–like warming. These results underscore the importance of considering SST pattern diversity in future projections and in improving seasonal TC prediction under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Label: Title
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  Data: Modulation of ENSO–Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency Relationship by Sea Surface Warming of Different Spatial Patterns.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Xu%2C+Mingrui%22">Xu, Mingrui</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zhan%2C+Ruifen%22">Zhan, Ruifen</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> zhanrf@fudan.edu.cn</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zhao%2C+Jiuwei%22">Zhao, Jiuwei</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wang%2C+Yuqing%22">Wang, Yuqing</searchLink><relatesTo>5</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wang%2C+Hui%22">Wang, Hui</searchLink><relatesTo>6</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Climate%22">Journal of Climate</searchLink>. Feb2026, Vol. 39 Issue 3, p847-860. 14p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22El+Niño%22">El Niño</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cyclogenesis%22">Cyclogenesis</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ocean+temperature%22">Ocean temperature</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Walker+circulation%22">Walker circulation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Vertical+wind+shear%22">Vertical wind shear</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22La+Niña%22">La Niña</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Pacific+Ocean%22">Pacific Ocean</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly modulates tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) at interannual time scales, yet how future sea surface temperature (SST) warming patterns may modify this relationship remains unclear. Here, we use high-resolution climate model simulations to quantify how three distinct SST warming patterns—uniform warming, El Niño–like warming (characterized by enhanced central/eastern Pacific warming), and La Niña–like warming (characterized by suppressed central/eastern Pacific warming)—alter the ENSO–TCGF linkage. We define a strengthening of the ENSO–TCGF relationship as an increase in the magnitude of the TCGF difference between El Niño and La Niña years and a weakening as a decrease in this magnitude. All three warming patterns generally project weakening across most tropical basins. Over the North Atlantic, ENSO's influence is uniformly suppressed, with the suppression intensifying from uniform to El Niño–like to La Niña–like warming. However, in the southeastern western North Pacific, both uniform and El Niño–like warming strengthen the ENSO–TCGF linkage, while La Niña–like warming continues to weaken it. These divergent responses arise from pattern-dependent changes in atmospheric heating, which drive Walker circulation anomalies and in turn regulate local large-scale environmental conditions including vertical wind shear, low-level vorticity, and midtropospheric humidity, thereby modulating the ENSO–TCGF relationship. Our results highlight that the spatial patterns of SST warming, not its magnitude, play a pivotal role in modulating future ENSO–TCGF relationships, with implications for regional cyclone risk and seasonal forecasts. Significance Statement: Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is strongly modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which serves as a key predictor for seasonal TC forecasts. However, future patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) warming remain uncertain, and it is unclear how diverse possible SST warming scenarios may influence the ENSO–TC genesis frequency (TCGF) relationship. This study demonstrates that spatial patterns of SST warming—not the magnitude of warming—play a dominant role in shaping future ENSO–TCGF linkages. While ENSO–TCGF relationships generally weaken under all warming scenarios, a notable strengthening (defined here as an increase in the magnitude of the TCGF difference between El Niño and La Niña years) occurs in the southeastern western North Pacific under uniform and El Niño–like warming. These results underscore the importance of considering SST pattern diversity in future projections and in improving seasonal TC prediction under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=egs&AN=191573018
RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0327.1
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 14
        StartPage: 847
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: El Niño
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Cyclogenesis
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ocean temperature
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Walker circulation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Vertical wind shear
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: La Niña
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Pacific Ocean
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Modulation of ENSO–Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency Relationship by Sea Surface Warming of Different Spatial Patterns.
        Type: main
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          Name:
            NameFull: Xu, Mingrui
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            NameFull: Zhan, Ruifen
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            NameFull: Zhao, Jiuwei
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            NameFull: Wang, Yuqing
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            – D: 01
              M: 02
              Text: Feb2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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              Value: 39
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