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Modeling Ringed and Bearded Seal Future Habitats Indicates Stability, Shifts, and Refugia.

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Title: Modeling Ringed and Bearded Seal Future Habitats Indicates Stability, Shifts, and Refugia.
Authors: Farnole, Patrick1 (AUTHOR) pfarnole@uvic.ca, Ferguson, Steven H.2 (AUTHOR), Haddon, Antoine1 (AUTHOR), Lea, Ellen V.2 (AUTHOR), Monahan, Adam H.1 (AUTHOR), Steiner, Nadja1,3 (AUTHOR)
Source: Global Change Biology. Feb2026, Vol. 32 Issue 2, p1-15. 15p.
Subjects: Habitat suitability index models, Marine resources conservation, Ice mechanics, Protected areas, Marine habitats, Climate change, Ringed seal, Seals (Animals)
Geographic Terms: Arctic regions, Arctic Archipelago (Nunavut & N.W.T.), East Siberian Sea (Russia)
Abstract: Understanding how marine habitats are changing with a warming Arctic is essential for conservation, management, and adaptation strategies bearing tangible consequences for Arctic communities and ecosystems. Ringed seals and bearded seals rely on specific ice and snow conditions to support critical life history events affecting survival and reproduction. Here, we develop a panarctic habitat suitability model linking life events and environmental conditions. With Earth System Models, we simulate habitat over 1850–2100, revealing a relatively stable past habitat contrasting with rapid regional shifts in contemporary simulations and future projections. Core historical habitats are projected to decline, but two regions arise as potential refugia—the East Siberian Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago—that could support ice seal populations towards 2100. These findings underscore the importance of refined monitoring and regional conservation strategies for ringed and bearded seals, and their unique ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Global Change Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
FullText Text:
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DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 192087056
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
PreciseRelevancyScore: 0
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  Label: Title
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  Data: Modeling Ringed and Bearded Seal Future Habitats Indicates Stability, Shifts, and Refugia.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Farnole%2C+Patrick%22">Farnole, Patrick</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> pfarnole@uvic.ca</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ferguson%2C+Steven+H%2E%22">Ferguson, Steven H.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Haddon%2C+Antoine%22">Haddon, Antoine</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Lea%2C+Ellen+V%2E%22">Lea, Ellen V.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Monahan%2C+Adam+H%2E%22">Monahan, Adam H.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Steiner%2C+Nadja%22">Steiner, Nadja</searchLink><relatesTo>1,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Global+Change+Biology%22">Global Change Biology</searchLink>. Feb2026, Vol. 32 Issue 2, p1-15. 15p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Habitat+suitability+index+models%22">Habitat suitability index models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Marine+resources+conservation%22">Marine resources conservation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ice+mechanics%22">Ice mechanics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Protected+areas%22">Protected areas</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Marine+habitats%22">Marine habitats</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ringed+seal%22">Ringed seal</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Seals+%28Animals%29%22">Seals (Animals)</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Arctic+regions%22">Arctic regions</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Arctic+Archipelago+%28Nunavut+%26+N%2EW%2ET%2E%29%22">Arctic Archipelago (Nunavut & N.W.T.)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22East+Siberian+Sea+%28Russia%29%22">East Siberian Sea (Russia)</searchLink>
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  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Understanding how marine habitats are changing with a warming Arctic is essential for conservation, management, and adaptation strategies bearing tangible consequences for Arctic communities and ecosystems. Ringed seals and bearded seals rely on specific ice and snow conditions to support critical life history events affecting survival and reproduction. Here, we develop a panarctic habitat suitability model linking life events and environmental conditions. With Earth System Models, we simulate habitat over 1850–2100, revealing a relatively stable past habitat contrasting with rapid regional shifts in contemporary simulations and future projections. Core historical habitats are projected to decline, but two regions arise as potential refugia—the East Siberian Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago—that could support ice seal populations towards 2100. These findings underscore the importance of refined monitoring and regional conservation strategies for ringed and bearded seals, and their unique ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Global Change Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=egs&AN=192087056
RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1111/gcb.70735
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 15
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Habitat suitability index models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Marine resources conservation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ice mechanics
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Protected areas
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Marine habitats
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ringed seal
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Seals (Animals)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Arctic regions
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Arctic Archipelago (Nunavut & N.W.T.)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: East Siberian Sea (Russia)
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Modeling Ringed and Bearded Seal Future Habitats Indicates Stability, Shifts, and Refugia.
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            NameFull: Ferguson, Steven H.
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            – D: 01
              M: 02
              Text: Feb2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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              Value: 13541013
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              Value: 32
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