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Nowcasting 3D Cloud Fields Using Forward Warping Optical Flow.

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Title: Nowcasting 3D Cloud Fields Using Forward Warping Optical Flow.
Authors: King, Matthew P.1,2 (AUTHOR) matt.king@colostate.edu, Apke, Jason M.3 (AUTHOR), Miller, Steven D.1,3 (AUTHOR), Haynes, Katherine3 (AUTHOR), Noh, Yoo-Jeong3 (AUTHOR), Haynes, John M.3 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Atmospheric & Oceanic Technology. Feb2026, Vol. 43 Issue 2, p213-237. 25p.
Subjects: Optical flow, Nowcasting (Meteorology), Artificial neural networks, Infrared photography, Remote-sensing images, Numerical weather forecasting
Abstract: Large- to global-domain short-term prediction of clouds (0–3 h), or cloud nowcasting, remains relevant to civilian and military applications ranging from solar energy production to intelligence gathering. Despite the capabilities of contemporary numerical weather prediction models, nowcasting methods based on near-real-time observations (i.e., satellite imagery) hold operational value due to their relative computational efficiency and accuracy for short-term applications. A commonly used nowcasting approach involves using two or more images to retrieve the apparent motions of features, or optical flow, which can be used to extrapolate the future location of those features. However, such approaches generally assume that the optical flow field remains unchanged with respect to time, which is challenging to apply to piecewise cloud fields from satellite imagery. Here, we propose a method to nowcast clouds that adapts a computer vision technique for image interpolation, commonly referred to as warping, to account for temporal changes to optical flow fields derived from infrared satellite imagery. We evaluate the proposed method for 991 randomly selected regional cases from 2024 and perform a detailed analysis on three specific cases from 2023. Applying a dense (every image pixel) optical flow retrieval technique to full-disk GOES infrared imagery, we demonstrate that forward warping, when coupled with simple occlusion reasoning, improves nowcasting skill. In addition, we leverage the same optical flow method to predict satellite brightness temperatures and compare the resulting nowcast to the predictions produced from a U-Net architecture implemented autoregressively. Ultimately, the optical flow method outperforms the U-Net at the 3-h prediction time frame when evaluated using root-mean-square error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Atmospheric & Oceanic Technology is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Nowcasting 3D Cloud Fields Using Forward Warping Optical Flow.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Atmospheric+%26+Oceanic+Technology%22">Journal of Atmospheric & Oceanic Technology</searchLink>. Feb2026, Vol. 43 Issue 2, p213-237. 25p.
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  Data: Large- to global-domain short-term prediction of clouds (0–3 h), or cloud nowcasting, remains relevant to civilian and military applications ranging from solar energy production to intelligence gathering. Despite the capabilities of contemporary numerical weather prediction models, nowcasting methods based on near-real-time observations (i.e., satellite imagery) hold operational value due to their relative computational efficiency and accuracy for short-term applications. A commonly used nowcasting approach involves using two or more images to retrieve the apparent motions of features, or optical flow, which can be used to extrapolate the future location of those features. However, such approaches generally assume that the optical flow field remains unchanged with respect to time, which is challenging to apply to piecewise cloud fields from satellite imagery. Here, we propose a method to nowcast clouds that adapts a computer vision technique for image interpolation, commonly referred to as warping, to account for temporal changes to optical flow fields derived from infrared satellite imagery. We evaluate the proposed method for 991 randomly selected regional cases from 2024 and perform a detailed analysis on three specific cases from 2023. Applying a dense (every image pixel) optical flow retrieval technique to full-disk GOES infrared imagery, we demonstrate that forward warping, when coupled with simple occlusion reasoning, improves nowcasting skill. In addition, we leverage the same optical flow method to predict satellite brightness temperatures and compare the resulting nowcast to the predictions produced from a U-Net architecture implemented autoregressively. Ultimately, the optical flow method outperforms the U-Net at the 3-h prediction time frame when evaluated using root-mean-square error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Atmospheric & Oceanic Technology is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Text: English
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      – SubjectFull: Optical flow
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Nowcasting (Meteorology)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Artificial neural networks
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      – SubjectFull: Infrared photography
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      – SubjectFull: Remote-sensing images
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      – SubjectFull: Numerical weather forecasting
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      – TitleFull: Nowcasting 3D Cloud Fields Using Forward Warping Optical Flow.
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              Text: Feb2026
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              Y: 2026
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