Dealing with hurricane surge flooding in a changing environment: part II: risk-based coastal adaptation design considering hazard-adaptation interactions.
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| Title: | Dealing with hurricane surge flooding in a changing environment: part II: risk-based coastal adaptation design considering hazard-adaptation interactions. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Jin, Weiliang1 (AUTHOR) wj5678@princeton.edu, Lin, Ning1,2 (AUTHOR) nlin@princeton.edu |
| Source: | Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment. Apr2026, Vol. 40 Issue 4, p1-15. 15p. |
| Subjects: | Climate change adaptation, Sea-walls, Climate change, Risk assessment, Absolute sea level change, Storm surges |
| Geographic Terms: | Manhattan (New York, N.Y.), New York (N.Y.) |
| Abstract: | Climate change exacerbates tropical cyclones (TCs) induced flood risk that demands competent adaptations. Current studies often overlook hazard-adaptation interaction when designing adaptation measures and apply "bathtub" flood modeling method which may overestimate flood risk. Here, we propose the Inundation Modeling-based Overtopping Risk Analysis (IMORA), where we model coastal inundations considering interactions between storm tide hazard and adaptation measures (in this study, a floodwall system) with a physics-based but computationally feasible method. We apply IMORA to assess adaptation strategies for lower Manhattan, NYC. We used large numbers of synthetic TCs to drive a storm tide model (ADCIRC) and an inundation model (SFINCS) to obtain inundations and damages with different floodwall levels. We calculated expected annual damages (EADs) and expected total damages (ETDs) with different floodwall levels. Considering the effect of sea level rise and storm intensification, we estimated ETDs (2% discount factor) from 2025 to 2100 with no adaptation to be $1.11 billion and $1.75 billion under the moderate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) and the high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), respectively. We determined optimal floodwall elevations to be 18.25 feet and 20.25 feet with minimum net expected costs (ETD plus investment) of $36.7 million and $47.17 million under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The optimal level considering SSP2-4.5 is comparable to the design level proposed in USACE's NYNJ-HATS coastal storm risk management for this region, although USACE's analysis method is challenged. We find that assuming "bathtub" overestimates ETDs by up to 143% under SSP2-4.5 and 214% under SSP5-8.5 compared to applying the IMORA framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
| FullText | Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 192347207 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Dealing with hurricane surge flooding in a changing environment: part II: risk-based coastal adaptation design considering hazard-adaptation interactions. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jin%2C+Weiliang%22">Jin, Weiliang</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> wj5678@princeton.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Lin%2C+Ning%22">Lin, Ning</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> nlin@princeton.edu</i> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Stochastic+Environmental+Research+%26+Risk+Assessment%22">Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment</searchLink>. Apr2026, Vol. 40 Issue 4, p1-15. 15p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change+adaptation%22">Climate change adaptation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Sea-walls%22">Sea-walls</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Risk+assessment%22">Risk assessment</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Absolute+sea+level+change%22">Absolute sea level change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Storm+surges%22">Storm surges</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Manhattan+%28New+York%2C+N%2EY%2E%29%22">Manhattan (New York, N.Y.)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22New+York+%28N%2EY%2E%29%22">New York (N.Y.)</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Climate change exacerbates tropical cyclones (TCs) induced flood risk that demands competent adaptations. Current studies often overlook hazard-adaptation interaction when designing adaptation measures and apply "bathtub" flood modeling method which may overestimate flood risk. Here, we propose the Inundation Modeling-based Overtopping Risk Analysis (IMORA), where we model coastal inundations considering interactions between storm tide hazard and adaptation measures (in this study, a floodwall system) with a physics-based but computationally feasible method. We apply IMORA to assess adaptation strategies for lower Manhattan, NYC. We used large numbers of synthetic TCs to drive a storm tide model (ADCIRC) and an inundation model (SFINCS) to obtain inundations and damages with different floodwall levels. We calculated expected annual damages (EADs) and expected total damages (ETDs) with different floodwall levels. Considering the effect of sea level rise and storm intensification, we estimated ETDs (2% discount factor) from 2025 to 2100 with no adaptation to be $1.11 billion and $1.75 billion under the moderate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) and the high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), respectively. We determined optimal floodwall elevations to be 18.25 feet and 20.25 feet with minimum net expected costs (ETD plus investment) of $36.7 million and $47.17 million under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The optimal level considering SSP2-4.5 is comparable to the design level proposed in USACE's NYNJ-HATS coastal storm risk management for this region, although USACE's analysis method is challenged. We find that assuming "bathtub" overestimates ETDs by up to 143% under SSP2-4.5 and 214% under SSP5-8.5 compared to applying the IMORA framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1007/s00477-026-03191-5 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 15 StartPage: 1 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Climate change adaptation Type: general – SubjectFull: Sea-walls Type: general – SubjectFull: Climate change Type: general – SubjectFull: Risk assessment Type: general – SubjectFull: Absolute sea level change Type: general – SubjectFull: Storm surges Type: general – SubjectFull: Manhattan (New York, N.Y.) Type: general – SubjectFull: New York (N.Y.) Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Dealing with hurricane surge flooding in a changing environment: part II: risk-based coastal adaptation design considering hazard-adaptation interactions. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Jin, Weiliang – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Lin, Ning IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 04 Text: Apr2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 14363240 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 40 – Type: issue Value: 4 Titles: – TitleFull: Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
