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Crossing the Threshold: Land Cover Change Triggers Hydrological Regime Shift in Brazil's Itaipu Hydropower Region.

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Title: Crossing the Threshold: Land Cover Change Triggers Hydrological Regime Shift in Brazil's Itaipu Hydropower Region.
Authors: Besnier, Jessica1 (AUTHOR) jb8qv@virginia.edu, Getirana, Augusto2,3 (AUTHOR), Lakshmi, Venkataraman1,3 (AUTHOR)
Source: Remote Sensing. Mar2026, Vol. 18 Issue 6, p848. 32p.
Subjects: Landscape changes, Water storage, Wetland conservation, Hydroelectric power plants, Water power, Agricultural intensification, Hydrologic cycle
Geographic Terms: Brazil
Abstract: Highlights: What are the main findings? Land cover thresholds (32% croplands, 27% savannas, 4% wetlands) correlated with a hydrological regime shift in August 2009, with terrestrial water storage increasing by 151.6 cm at the Itaipu Reservoir Land cover change explains 73–88% of post-2009 water storage variability, far exceeding ENSO's influence (r = 0.42), demonstrating that cumulative agricultural expansion now dominates over climate as the primary driver What are the implications of the main findings? Strategic land use decisions—preserving wetlands, maintaining savannas, regulating croplands expansion—now directly control water storage resilience more than climatic factors in reservoir-dominated agricultural frontiers The empirically derived thresholds provide quantitative targets for adaptive management and are transferable to other tropical hydropower-agricultural systems through integration of GRACE, MODIS, and other climate data Rapid agricultural expansion threatens water security in one of the world's largest hydroelectric systems, the Itaipu dam, located on the Brazil–Paraguay border. Yet regional hydrological responses to land cover change and climate variability remain insufficiently characterized at management-relevant scales. The Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB), which sustains agriculture, hydropower, and municipal water supply across both countries, exemplifies this challenge as accelerating cropland conversion raises concerns about long-term water availability. This study investigates hydrological transitions and their statistical associations with land cover changes in the Itaipu study region from 2002 to 2023. We integrate GRACE/GRACE-FO (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On), Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies (TWSAs), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) land cover, CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data) precipitation, and LandScan population density using Pettitt's breakpoint test and Mann–Kendall trend analysis to detect temporal breakpoints and quantify co-variability between hydrology and land surface dynamics. Together, these methods identify a significant basin-wide shift in TWSAs in mid-2009, with storage increases of 151.6 cm at Itaipu and 103.1 cm at Yguazú Reservoir. Over the study period, cropland expanded from 13.5% to 37.9% of total land cover, while savanna declined from 28.1% to 24.2%. After 2009, correlations between land cover and TWSAs strengthened substantially, particularly for wetlands (r = 0.88), croplands (r = 0.73), and savannas (r = −0.81; all p < 0.001), indicating strong coupling between landscape transformation and basin-scale storage variability. Principal Component Analysis shows land use change explains 39–41% of TWSA variance, exceeding hydroclimatic contributions. Granger causality analysis reveals bidirectional coupling between wetlands and water storage at Itaipu, while cropland and savanna dynamics exert predictive influence on downstream hydrology in the Yguazú basin. Water balance decomposition further indicates a post-2009 regime shift, with residual storage transitioning from −10.6 to +4.7 and 78% greater runoff generation per unit precipitation, consistent with reduced infiltration capacity. Together, these findings underscore intensifying land–water feedback and the need for adaptive watershed management under expanding agriculture and climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Remote Sensing is the property of MDPI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Crossing the Threshold: Land Cover Change Triggers Hydrological Regime Shift in Brazil&#39;s Itaipu Hydropower Region.
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  Data: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;JN&quot; term=&quot;%22Remote+Sensing%22&quot;&gt;Remote Sensing&lt;/searchLink&gt;. Mar2026, Vol. 18 Issue 6, p848. 32p.
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  Data: Highlights: What are the main findings? Land cover thresholds (32% croplands, 27% savannas, 4% wetlands) correlated with a hydrological regime shift in August 2009, with terrestrial water storage increasing by 151.6 cm at the Itaipu Reservoir Land cover change explains 73–88% of post-2009 water storage variability, far exceeding ENSO&#39;s influence (r = 0.42), demonstrating that cumulative agricultural expansion now dominates over climate as the primary driver What are the implications of the main findings? Strategic land use decisions—preserving wetlands, maintaining savannas, regulating croplands expansion—now directly control water storage resilience more than climatic factors in reservoir-dominated agricultural frontiers The empirically derived thresholds provide quantitative targets for adaptive management and are transferable to other tropical hydropower-agricultural systems through integration of GRACE, MODIS, and other climate data Rapid agricultural expansion threatens water security in one of the world&#39;s largest hydroelectric systems, the Itaipu dam, located on the Brazil–Paraguay border. Yet regional hydrological responses to land cover change and climate variability remain insufficiently characterized at management-relevant scales. The Upper Paran&#225; River Basin (UPRB), which sustains agriculture, hydropower, and municipal water supply across both countries, exemplifies this challenge as accelerating cropland conversion raises concerns about long-term water availability. This study investigates hydrological transitions and their statistical associations with land cover changes in the Itaipu study region from 2002 to 2023. We integrate GRACE/GRACE-FO (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On), Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies (TWSAs), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) land cover, CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data) precipitation, and LandScan population density using Pettitt&#39;s breakpoint test and Mann–Kendall trend analysis to detect temporal breakpoints and quantify co-variability between hydrology and land surface dynamics. Together, these methods identify a significant basin-wide shift in TWSAs in mid-2009, with storage increases of 151.6 cm at Itaipu and 103.1 cm at Yguaz&#250; Reservoir. Over the study period, cropland expanded from 13.5% to 37.9% of total land cover, while savanna declined from 28.1% to 24.2%. After 2009, correlations between land cover and TWSAs strengthened substantially, particularly for wetlands (r = 0.88), croplands (r = 0.73), and savannas (r = −0.81; all p &lt; 0.001), indicating strong coupling between landscape transformation and basin-scale storage variability. Principal Component Analysis shows land use change explains 39–41% of TWSA variance, exceeding hydroclimatic contributions. Granger causality analysis reveals bidirectional coupling between wetlands and water storage at Itaipu, while cropland and savanna dynamics exert predictive influence on downstream hydrology in the Yguaz&#250; basin. Water balance decomposition further indicates a post-2009 regime shift, with residual storage transitioning from −10.6 to +4.7 and 78% greater runoff generation per unit precipitation, consistent with reduced infiltration capacity. Together, these findings underscore intensifying land–water feedback and the need for adaptive watershed management under expanding agriculture and climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Data: &lt;i&gt;Copyright of Remote Sensing is the property of MDPI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder&#39;s express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.&lt;/i&gt; (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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    Identifiers:
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        Value: 10.3390/rs18060848
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 32
        StartPage: 848
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Landscape changes
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Water storage
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Wetland conservation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Hydroelectric power plants
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Water power
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Agricultural intensification
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Hydrologic cycle
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Brazil
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Crossing the Threshold: Land Cover Change Triggers Hydrological Regime Shift in Brazil's Itaipu Hydropower Region.
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            NameFull: Getirana, Augusto
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              Text: Mar2026
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