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Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of carbon balance effects in China's population-shrinking cities amid urban transition.

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Title: Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of carbon balance effects in China's population-shrinking cities amid urban transition.
Authors: Zhang, Jianwen1 (AUTHOR), Fu, Meichen1 (AUTHOR) fumeichen@cugb.edu.cn, Liang, Yanqing2 (AUTHOR), Zhao, Chaoran3 (AUTHOR), Li, Sijia1 (AUTHOR), Tang, Feng4 (AUTHOR)
Source: Applied Geography. May2026, Vol. 190, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p.
Subjects: Demographic change, Carbon sequestration, Carbon dioxide mitigation, Countries, Heterogeneity, Brain drain, Recessions
Geographic Terms: China, Southwest China, Manchuria (China)
Abstract: Urban population shrinkage exerts complex and heterogeneous impacts on regional carbon balance, yet existing studies often overlook its spatiotemporal dynamics within evolving policy contexts. Our study integrates triennial census data (2000, 2010, and 2020) with high-resolution carbon flux inventories to analyze the spatial heterogeneity and underlying mechanisms of carbon balance across 287 Chinese prefectures from 2000 to 2020. Using geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) and mediation analysis, we identified two distinct phases: Phase I (2000-2010), marked by industrial relocation, and Phase II (2010-2020), characterized by accelerated decarbonization policies. Key findings included: (1) Population shrinkage increased the carbon balance index in southwestern China but exacerbated carbon deficits in the northeast, where industrial lock-in sustained higher carbon balance indices. (2) The GTWR coefficient for population shrinkage declined from β = 0.19 (p < 0.01) in Phase I to β = 0.09 (p < 0.01) in Phase II, indicating weakened carbon balance benefits under policy interventions. (3) Mediation analysis identified economic recession as a central pathway (effect: 0.0385), with the chained mechanism "population shrinkage → recession → innovation drain → carbon balance decline" accounting for 65.9% of total effects. Collapsing innovation systems were found to intensify carbon lock-in. These results underscore that the carbon balance effects of population shrinkage are geographically contingent and policy-sensitive, suggesting that sustainability dividends from demographic decline are not universally guaranteed. This study advocates for region-specific decarbonization strategies to support China's dual-carbon goals and offers a transferable analytical framework for aging societies worldwide. • Population shrinkage increased carbon deficits in Northeast China but enhanced carbon sinks in Southwest China. • Policy interventions weakened shrinkage's positive carbon balance effect (β declined from 0.19 to 0.09 post-2010). • Economic recession mediated 65.9% of total effects via innovation drain and industrial lock-in. • A chain pathway "Shrinkage.→ Recession→ Innovation loss→ Carbon deficit" explained 54.5% of indirect effects. • Differentiated decarbonization strategies are proposed for shrinking regions under China's dual-carbon goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Applied Geography is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of carbon balance effects in China&#39;s population-shrinking cities amid urban transition.
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– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Urban population shrinkage exerts complex and heterogeneous impacts on regional carbon balance, yet existing studies often overlook its spatiotemporal dynamics within evolving policy contexts. Our study integrates triennial census data (2000, 2010, and 2020) with high-resolution carbon flux inventories to analyze the spatial heterogeneity and underlying mechanisms of carbon balance across 287 Chinese prefectures from 2000 to 2020. Using geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) and mediation analysis, we identified two distinct phases: Phase I (2000-2010), marked by industrial relocation, and Phase II (2010-2020), characterized by accelerated decarbonization policies. Key findings included: (1) Population shrinkage increased the carbon balance index in southwestern China but exacerbated carbon deficits in the northeast, where industrial lock-in sustained higher carbon balance indices. (2) The GTWR coefficient for population shrinkage declined from β = 0.19 (p &lt; 0.01) in Phase I to β = 0.09 (p &lt; 0.01) in Phase II, indicating weakened carbon balance benefits under policy interventions. (3) Mediation analysis identified economic recession as a central pathway (effect: 0.0385), with the chained mechanism &quot;population shrinkage → recession → innovation drain → carbon balance decline&quot; accounting for 65.9% of total effects. Collapsing innovation systems were found to intensify carbon lock-in. These results underscore that the carbon balance effects of population shrinkage are geographically contingent and policy-sensitive, suggesting that sustainability dividends from demographic decline are not universally guaranteed. This study advocates for region-specific decarbonization strategies to support China&#39;s dual-carbon goals and offers a transferable analytical framework for aging societies worldwide. • Population shrinkage increased carbon deficits in Northeast China but enhanced carbon sinks in Southwest China. • Policy interventions weakened shrinkage&#39;s positive carbon balance effect (β declined from 0.19 to 0.09 post-2010). • Economic recession mediated 65.9% of total effects via innovation drain and industrial lock-in. • A chain pathway &quot;Shrinkage.→ Recession→ Innovation loss→ Carbon deficit&quot; explained 54.5% of indirect effects. • Differentiated decarbonization strategies are proposed for shrinking regions under China&#39;s dual-carbon goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Data: &lt;i&gt;Copyright of Applied Geography is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder&#39;s express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.&lt;/i&gt; (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2026.103991
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 1
        StartPage: N.PAG
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Demographic change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Carbon sequestration
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Carbon dioxide mitigation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Countries
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Heterogeneity
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Brain drain
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Recessions
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: China
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Southwest China
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Manchuria (China)
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of carbon balance effects in China's population-shrinking cities amid urban transition.
        Type: main
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          Name:
            NameFull: Zhang, Jianwen
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            NameFull: Fu, Meichen
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            NameFull: Liang, Yanqing
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            NameFull: Zhao, Chaoran
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            NameFull: Li, Sijia
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            – D: 01
              M: 05
              Text: May2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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              Value: 01436228
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              Value: 190
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            – TitleFull: Applied Geography
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