Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous U.S. Tornado Events from 2003 to 2023.
Saved in:
| Title: | Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous U.S. Tornado Events from 2003 to 2023. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Lyons, Andrew D.1 (AUTHOR) andrew.lyons@noaa.gov, Thompson, Richard L.1 (AUTHOR), Smith, Bryan T.1 (AUTHOR), Weinman, Harry G.1 (AUTHOR), Dean, Andrew R.1 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Weather & Forecasting. Mar2026, Vol. 41 Issue 3, p617-635. 19p. |
| Subjects: | Tornadoes, Radar signal processing, Mesoscale convective complexes, Severe storms, Thunderstorms |
| Geographic Terms: | United States |
| Abstract: | Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms represent a significant threat to life and property in the United States annually. Approximately 1000 tornadoes, 200 being significant [Fujita/enhanced Fujita (F/EF) 2+], are documented on average every year. Using archived radar and Storm Data storm report information, 21 912 tornado grid hours were manually analyzed for convective mode from the years 2003 to 23. This dataset builds upon prior work by Smith et al. (hereafter S12) by more than doubling the sample size to produce a robust, multidecadal climatology of tornadoes by convective mode. Comparisons were made between tornado samples spanning 2003–11 and 2012–23 to assess changes in the frequency and spatial occurrence of tornadoes. Convective mode characterization consisted of a subjective analysis of WSR-88D imagery into three categories: 1) supercell, 2) quasi-linear convective system (QLCS), and 3) disorganized. Spatial climatologies of the different modes were performed, and kernel density estimate plots of events per decade were generated as in S12. The highest climatological frequency for tornadic supercells is reaffirmed to extend from Kansas and Oklahoma east-southeastward to Mississippi and Alabama, while QLCS tornadoes are more frequent from the northern Gulf Coast states into the lower Ohio River Valley. Comparing the new sample to the original, QLCS tornado relative frequency increased by over 100%. Substantial variation in QLCS tornado occurrence may be due to nonmeteorological factors such as dual-polarization radar and different observing/reporting practices. Significance Statement: Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes represent a significant threat to life and property in the United States with over 1000 occurring annually. To quantify the impacts of these tornadoes, a proper understanding of the types of storms that produce tornadoes, as well as when and where they occur, is crucial. This work expands on prior studies by more than doubling the sample of tornadoes for study. By incorporating storm type information, important bulk statistics, and radar attributes, we examined the differences between the two samples. Important differences were found with strong tornadoes in the more recent years, and linear storm types produced more frequent (usually weak) tornadoes than in the past. This project offers important context for how tornado-producing storm types have changed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Weather & Forecasting is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
|
Full text is not displayed to guests.
Login for full access.
|
|
Be the first to leave a comment!
