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Rip-Current Likelihoods and Predictions on Two Different Bathymetries Observed within 1 Week on the Same Beach in Duck, North Carolina.

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Title: Rip-Current Likelihoods and Predictions on Two Different Bathymetries Observed within 1 Week on the Same Beach in Duck, North Carolina.
Authors: Choi, Junwoo1 (AUTHOR), Elgar, Steve2 (AUTHOR)
Source: Weather & Forecasting. Mar2026, Vol. 41 Issue 3, p569-583. 15p.
Subjects: Rip currents, Bathymetry, Topography, Water waves, Computer simulation, Ocean waves
Geographic Terms: Outer Banks (N.C.), North Carolina
Abstract: A rip-current prediction model based on Boussinesq numerical simulations using FUNWAVE (a fully nonlinear Boussinesq wave model) that quantifies rip-current likelihoods is applied to two nearshore bathymetries on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, near the town of Duck. The model is skillful (Brier skill score > 0.5) in reproducing the maximum offshore-directed currents observed with 28 current meters deployed across and along the surfzone for 1 month. During ∼1 week within the application period, the observed surfzone bathymetry evolved from relatively alongshore uniform to alongshore inhomogeneous with channels and crescentic sandbars, affecting the likelihood of dangerous rip currents with the same incident wave conditions. Although the maximum difference in rip-current likelihoods between the two bathymetries reached approximately 20%, the hazard indices, predicted by averaging likelihoods from a wide range of observed incident wave conditions, varied by only 6%–7%. The results suggest that at beaches with evolving bathymetry, conservative rip-current warnings should be based on 3D survey data collected during periods of greater alongshore inhomogeneity, when the strongest rip currents are expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Weather & Forecasting is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
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Header DbId: egs
DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 192792894
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PubTypeId: academicJournal
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  Label: Title
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  Data: Rip-Current Likelihoods and Predictions on Two Different Bathymetries Observed within 1 Week on the Same Beach in Duck, North Carolina.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Choi%2C+Junwoo%22">Choi, Junwoo</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Elgar%2C+Steve%22">Elgar, Steve</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Weather+%26+Forecasting%22">Weather & Forecasting</searchLink>. Mar2026, Vol. 41 Issue 3, p569-583. 15p.
– Name: Subject
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rip+currents%22">Rip currents</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Bathymetry%22">Bathymetry</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Topography%22">Topography</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Water+waves%22">Water waves</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Computer+simulation%22">Computer simulation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ocean+waves%22">Ocean waves</searchLink>
– Name: SubjectGeographic
  Label: Geographic Terms
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Outer+Banks+%28N%2EC%2E%29%22">Outer Banks (N.C.)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22North+Carolina%22">North Carolina</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: A rip-current prediction model based on Boussinesq numerical simulations using FUNWAVE (a fully nonlinear Boussinesq wave model) that quantifies rip-current likelihoods is applied to two nearshore bathymetries on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, near the town of Duck. The model is skillful (Brier skill score > 0.5) in reproducing the maximum offshore-directed currents observed with 28 current meters deployed across and along the surfzone for 1 month. During ∼1 week within the application period, the observed surfzone bathymetry evolved from relatively alongshore uniform to alongshore inhomogeneous with channels and crescentic sandbars, affecting the likelihood of dangerous rip currents with the same incident wave conditions. Although the maximum difference in rip-current likelihoods between the two bathymetries reached approximately 20%, the hazard indices, predicted by averaging likelihoods from a wide range of observed incident wave conditions, varied by only 6%–7%. The results suggest that at beaches with evolving bathymetry, conservative rip-current warnings should be based on 3D survey data collected during periods of greater alongshore inhomogeneity, when the strongest rip currents are expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Weather & Forecasting is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1175/WAF-D-25-0066.1
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 15
        StartPage: 569
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Rip currents
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Bathymetry
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Topography
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Water waves
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Computer simulation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ocean waves
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Outer Banks (N.C.)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: North Carolina
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Rip-Current Likelihoods and Predictions on Two Different Bathymetries Observed within 1 Week on the Same Beach in Duck, North Carolina.
        Type: main
  BibRelationships:
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      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Choi, Junwoo
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Elgar, Steve
    IsPartOfRelationships:
      – BibEntity:
          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 03
              Text: Mar2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
          Identifiers:
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              Value: 08828156
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              Value: 41
            – Type: issue
              Value: 3
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Weather & Forecasting
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