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Projecting tourism climate suitability in Türkiye under climate change scenarios: insights from the summer simmer index.

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Title: Projecting tourism climate suitability in Türkiye under climate change scenarios: insights from the summer simmer index.
Authors: Deniz Adiguzel, Asli1 (AUTHOR) adadiguzel@beu.edu.tr, Zhang, Maomao1,2,3 (AUTHOR) star_mzhang@mails.ccnu.edu.cn, Kaya, Asir Yuksel4 (AUTHOR) aykaya@firat.edu.tr, Karadeniz, Enes5 (AUTHOR) enes.karadeniz@inonu.edu.tr, Mantas, Senay6 (AUTHOR) senaymantas@nevsehir.edu.tr
Source: Advances in Space Research. May2026, Vol. 77 Issue 9, p8939-8955. 17p.
Subjects: Tourism, Thermal comfort, Climate change, Atmospheric models, Tourism management
Geographic Terms: Aegean Sea Coast (Turkey), Turkey, Mediterranean Region
Abstract: Climate change is one of the most critical global environmental problems that affect tourism by leading to changing temperatures, humidity levels, and increasing the prevalence of extreme weather events. These factors will greatly affect the attractiveness of tourist destinations and the comfort of tourists. More importantly, climate change impacts on tourists' experience and perceptions of tourist destinations. This research used the Summer Simmer Index (SSI) to determine how climate change will affect tourism in seven different geographical regions of Türkiye. Temperature and relative humidity data at monthly averages was collected from CMIP6 projections for 2024, 2050, 2075, and 2100, and for two scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 from the Copernicus Climate Data Store and then processed with ArcGIS Pro 3.5.0 software. SSI maps were produced to visualize changes in summer bioclimatic comfort patterns over time. According to the most optimistic climate change scenario for Türkiye, average summer temperatures are projected to rise by 2.35 °C by 2050 and 4 °C by 2100. In this case, bioclimatic comfort zones are expected to cover 31.14% of the country's land area by 2100. Under the most pessimistic climate change scenario, average summer temperatures are projected to rise by 7.79 °C by 2100, while bioclimatic comfort zones are projected to constitute 18.59% of the country's land area. The findings indicated that under the most pessimistic scenario, the Mediterranean and Aegean Regions of Türkiye will experience the larges decline in thermal comfort; therefore, negatively impacting the sustainability of coastal tourism. However, based on their relatively moderate climates, regions such as the Black Sea, the Eastern Anatolia, and the Central Anatolia Regions may become more suitable destinations for summer tourism. The findings support the need for an evaluation of the seasonality of tourism, evaluation of visitor preferences, and development of tourism infrastructure based on anticipated climate change conditions. The results also demonstrate that SSI is a valuable tool for guiding adaptive tourism strategies under changing climate scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Advances in Space Research is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tourism%22">Tourism</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Thermal+comfort%22">Thermal comfort</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+models%22">Atmospheric models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tourism+management%22">Tourism management</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Aegean+Sea+Coast+%28Turkey%29%22">Aegean Sea Coast (Turkey)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Turkey%22">Turkey</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mediterranean+Region%22">Mediterranean Region</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Climate change is one of the most critical global environmental problems that affect tourism by leading to changing temperatures, humidity levels, and increasing the prevalence of extreme weather events. These factors will greatly affect the attractiveness of tourist destinations and the comfort of tourists. More importantly, climate change impacts on tourists' experience and perceptions of tourist destinations. This research used the Summer Simmer Index (SSI) to determine how climate change will affect tourism in seven different geographical regions of Türkiye. Temperature and relative humidity data at monthly averages was collected from CMIP6 projections for 2024, 2050, 2075, and 2100, and for two scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 from the Copernicus Climate Data Store and then processed with ArcGIS Pro 3.5.0 software. SSI maps were produced to visualize changes in summer bioclimatic comfort patterns over time. According to the most optimistic climate change scenario for Türkiye, average summer temperatures are projected to rise by 2.35 °C by 2050 and 4 °C by 2100. In this case, bioclimatic comfort zones are expected to cover 31.14% of the country's land area by 2100. Under the most pessimistic climate change scenario, average summer temperatures are projected to rise by 7.79 °C by 2100, while bioclimatic comfort zones are projected to constitute 18.59% of the country's land area. The findings indicated that under the most pessimistic scenario, the Mediterranean and Aegean Regions of Türkiye will experience the larges decline in thermal comfort; therefore, negatively impacting the sustainability of coastal tourism. However, based on their relatively moderate climates, regions such as the Black Sea, the Eastern Anatolia, and the Central Anatolia Regions may become more suitable destinations for summer tourism. The findings support the need for an evaluation of the seasonality of tourism, evaluation of visitor preferences, and development of tourism infrastructure based on anticipated climate change conditions. The results also demonstrate that SSI is a valuable tool for guiding adaptive tourism strategies under changing climate scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Advances in Space Research is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=egs&AN=192967912
RecordInfo BibRecord:
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    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1016/j.asr.2026.02.090
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 17
        StartPage: 8939
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Tourism
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Thermal comfort
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Tourism management
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Aegean Sea Coast (Turkey)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Turkey
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Mediterranean Region
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Projecting tourism climate suitability in Türkiye under climate change scenarios: insights from the summer simmer index.
        Type: main
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          Name:
            NameFull: Deniz Adiguzel, Asli
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            NameFull: Zhang, Maomao
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            NameFull: Kaya, Asir Yuksel
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            NameFull: Karadeniz, Enes
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            NameFull: Mantas, Senay
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            – D: 01
              M: 05
              Text: May2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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              Value: 77
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              Value: 9
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            – TitleFull: Advances in Space Research
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