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Investigating ionospheric TEC variations in solar and geomagnetic influences across solar activity phases.

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Title: Investigating ionospheric TEC variations in solar and geomagnetic influences across solar activity phases.
Authors: Hassan, Ziyadat1,2 (AUTHOR) ziyadathassan@gmail.com, Abidin, Zamri Zainal1 (AUTHOR) zzaa@um.edu.my, Nazri, Affan Adly1 (AUTHOR), Baharin, Nursyazela Badrina1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Advances in Space Research. May2026, Vol. 77 Issue 10, p10352-10365. 14p.
Subjects: Solar cycle, Solar activity, Ionospheric electron density, Solar radiation, Statistical correlation, Geomagnetism, Ionospheric techniques, Solar wind
Abstract: This study examines the variability of ionospheric total electron content (VTEC) in response to solar and geomagnetic drivers across solar cycles 23 to 25. While the dominant effect of solar radiation on VTEC is well-known, a comprehensive understanding of how these relationships and their time-lags vary across distinct solar cycle phases and across cycles of differing intensity has been lacking. Using global VTEC data from the Chinese Academy of Sciences Global Ionospheric Maps (CASG) and solar-geophysical indices from NASA's OMNI dataset spanning from 1998 to 2025, this study bridges that gap by quantifying correlation strengths and time-lag relationships between VTEC and parameters such as F 10.7 solar flux, R sunspot number, Kp, Ap, and Dst indices, and solar wind properties. Results show that solar proxies, particularly F 10.7 and R sunspot number, exhibit the strongest, most consistent correlations with VTEC, especially during the ascending and descending phases of the solar cycle, with a characteristic ∼ 2 -day lag attributed to thermospheric oxygen dynamics and ionospheric recombination processes. In contrast, geomagnetic indices exhibit weaker and phase-dependent correlations, while direct correlations between solar wind parameters and global VTEC are weak, as their influence is primarily mediated by geomagnetic activity and exhibits strong regional and temporal heterogeneity. Phase-resolved analyses further reveal that geomagnetic activity plays a more prominent role during transitional phases, while maximum and minimum periods are dominated by EUV variability and non-solar drivers, respectively. These findings highlight the necessity of incorporating solar phase and time-lag dependencies in ionospheric modelling and forecasting efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Advances in Space Research is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 193312380
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  Data: Investigating ionospheric TEC variations in solar and geomagnetic influences across solar activity phases.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hassan%2C+Ziyadat%22">Hassan, Ziyadat</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> ziyadathassan@gmail.com</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Abidin%2C+Zamri+Zainal%22">Abidin, Zamri Zainal</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> zzaa@um.edu.my</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Nazri%2C+Affan+Adly%22">Nazri, Affan Adly</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Baharin%2C+Nursyazela+Badrina%22">Baharin, Nursyazela Badrina</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Solar+cycle%22">Solar cycle</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Solar+activity%22">Solar activity</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ionospheric+electron+density%22">Ionospheric electron density</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Solar+radiation%22">Solar radiation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Statistical+correlation%22">Statistical correlation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Geomagnetism%22">Geomagnetism</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ionospheric+techniques%22">Ionospheric techniques</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Solar+wind%22">Solar wind</searchLink>
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  Label: Abstract
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  Data: This study examines the variability of ionospheric total electron content (VTEC) in response to solar and geomagnetic drivers across solar cycles 23 to 25. While the dominant effect of solar radiation on VTEC is well-known, a comprehensive understanding of how these relationships and their time-lags vary across distinct solar cycle phases and across cycles of differing intensity has been lacking. Using global VTEC data from the Chinese Academy of Sciences Global Ionospheric Maps (CASG) and solar-geophysical indices from NASA's OMNI dataset spanning from 1998 to 2025, this study bridges that gap by quantifying correlation strengths and time-lag relationships between VTEC and parameters such as F 10.7 solar flux, R sunspot number, Kp, Ap, and Dst indices, and solar wind properties. Results show that solar proxies, particularly F 10.7 and R sunspot number, exhibit the strongest, most consistent correlations with VTEC, especially during the ascending and descending phases of the solar cycle, with a characteristic ∼ 2 -day lag attributed to thermospheric oxygen dynamics and ionospheric recombination processes. In contrast, geomagnetic indices exhibit weaker and phase-dependent correlations, while direct correlations between solar wind parameters and global VTEC are weak, as their influence is primarily mediated by geomagnetic activity and exhibits strong regional and temporal heterogeneity. Phase-resolved analyses further reveal that geomagnetic activity plays a more prominent role during transitional phases, while maximum and minimum periods are dominated by EUV variability and non-solar drivers, respectively. These findings highlight the necessity of incorporating solar phase and time-lag dependencies in ionospheric modelling and forecasting efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Advances in Space Research is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1016/j.asr.2026.02.030
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 14
        StartPage: 10352
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Solar cycle
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Solar activity
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ionospheric electron density
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Solar radiation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Statistical correlation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Geomagnetism
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ionospheric techniques
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Solar wind
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Investigating ionospheric TEC variations in solar and geomagnetic influences across solar activity phases.
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            NameFull: Hassan, Ziyadat
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            NameFull: Abidin, Zamri Zainal
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            NameFull: Nazri, Affan Adly
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            NameFull: Baharin, Nursyazela Badrina
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            – D: 15
              M: 05
              Text: May2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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              Value: 77
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              Value: 10
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            – TitleFull: Advances in Space Research
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