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Creep-shock fatigue reliability assessment of electronic component structures based on Bayesian estimation.

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Title: Creep-shock fatigue reliability assessment of electronic component structures based on Bayesian estimation.
Authors: Ma, Shuai1 (AUTHOR), Sun, Yi1 (AUTHOR) sunyi@hit.edu.cn, Nan, Yifei1 (AUTHOR), Liu, Yizhi1 (AUTHOR), Yang, Zhiqiang1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Materials Science: Materials in Electronics. May2026, Vol. 37 Issue 13, p1-28. 28p.
Subjects: Reliability of electronics, Creep (Materials), Mechanical shock, Material fatigue, Ball grid array technology, Bayes' estimation, Finite element method
Abstract: To address the reliability issues of electronic components in reusable spacecraft under coupled high-temperature creep and pyrotechnic shock environments, this study takes ball grid array (BGA) solder joints as an example and proposes a creep-shock fatigue damage assessment method extending from deterministic to probabilistic approaches. First, a high-temperature creep-shock coupled test system is established to obtain life data of BGA solder joints under various combinations of creep dwell time and shock loads. Finite element analysis is conducted by combining the evolving power spectral density shock damage model and the Wen–Tu creep damage model to quantitatively characterize the creep damage and shock damage components under different operating conditions. On this basis, a creep-shock fatigue interaction diagram is constructed, and a nonlinear failure envelope applicable to BGA solder joints is established. Through the unified fitting of failure data from multiple conditions, consistent life prediction for different conditions is achieved, balancing safety and economy in engineering applications. Furthermore, to address the issues of limited experimental sample size and life dispersion, a method combining Bootstrap and Bayesian estimation is introduced to identify the Weibull life distribution parameters. Based on Latin hypercube sampling, random damage sampling simulations are performed to construct a probabilistic damage assessment chart containing probability equipotential lines of different confidence levels, which explicitly defines the safe design region and recommended envelopes under target reliability constraints. The research results provide a systematic method and engineering basis for the life design and reliability assessment of spacecraft electronic components under complex thermo-mechanical environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Materials Science: Materials in Electronics is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
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Header DbId: egs
DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 193394564
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PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
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  Label: Title
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  Data: Creep-shock fatigue reliability assessment of electronic component structures based on Bayesian estimation.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Reliability+of+electronics%22">Reliability of electronics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Creep+%28Materials%29%22">Creep (Materials)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mechanical+shock%22">Mechanical shock</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Material+fatigue%22">Material fatigue</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ball+grid+array+technology%22">Ball grid array technology</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Bayes'+estimation%22">Bayes' estimation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Finite+element+method%22">Finite element method</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: To address the reliability issues of electronic components in reusable spacecraft under coupled high-temperature creep and pyrotechnic shock environments, this study takes ball grid array (BGA) solder joints as an example and proposes a creep-shock fatigue damage assessment method extending from deterministic to probabilistic approaches. First, a high-temperature creep-shock coupled test system is established to obtain life data of BGA solder joints under various combinations of creep dwell time and shock loads. Finite element analysis is conducted by combining the evolving power spectral density shock damage model and the Wen–Tu creep damage model to quantitatively characterize the creep damage and shock damage components under different operating conditions. On this basis, a creep-shock fatigue interaction diagram is constructed, and a nonlinear failure envelope applicable to BGA solder joints is established. Through the unified fitting of failure data from multiple conditions, consistent life prediction for different conditions is achieved, balancing safety and economy in engineering applications. Furthermore, to address the issues of limited experimental sample size and life dispersion, a method combining Bootstrap and Bayesian estimation is introduced to identify the Weibull life distribution parameters. Based on Latin hypercube sampling, random damage sampling simulations are performed to construct a probabilistic damage assessment chart containing probability equipotential lines of different confidence levels, which explicitly defines the safe design region and recommended envelopes under target reliability constraints. The research results provide a systematic method and engineering basis for the life design and reliability assessment of spacecraft electronic components under complex thermo-mechanical environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Materials Science: Materials in Electronics is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1007/s10854-026-17409-3
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 28
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Reliability of electronics
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Creep (Materials)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Mechanical shock
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Material fatigue
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ball grid array technology
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Bayes' estimation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Finite element method
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Creep-shock fatigue reliability assessment of electronic component structures based on Bayesian estimation.
        Type: main
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          Name:
            NameFull: Ma, Shuai
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            NameFull: Sun, Yi
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            NameFull: Nan, Yifei
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            NameFull: Liu, Yizhi
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            NameFull: Yang, Zhiqiang
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            – D: 01
              M: 05
              Text: May2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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              Value: 37
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              Value: 13
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            – TitleFull: Journal of Materials Science: Materials in Electronics
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