Uncertainty-aware order tracking using interval-valued spectral estimators.

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Bibliographic Details
Title: Uncertainty-aware order tracking using interval-valued spectral estimators.
Authors: Mohammad, Suleiman Ibrahim1, Yogeesh N.1,2 yogeesh.r@gmail.com, Abdullah, Mustafa3, Varghese, Rosemary4, Vasudevan, Asokan5, Ashalatha K. S.6
Source: Sound & Vibration. 2026, Vol. 60 Issue 2, p1-20. 20p.
Subjects: Interval analysis, Power spectra, Statistics, Fault diagnosis, Rotating machinery, Signal frequency estimation, Signal processing
Abstract: Order tracking is central to diagnosing rotating machinery under variable speed; however, both tachometer-based and tacholess pipelines typically return point estimates of the order spectrum and therefore under-represent uncertainty due to speed estimation error, phase integration drift, resampling jitter, and finite-record spectral variance. This study develops an uncertainty-aware order tracking framework in which the diagnostic output is an interval-valued order power spectral density (PSD) envelope. The angular speed is modeled as an unknown-but-bounded process ω(t) ∈ [ω-(t), ω+(t)], which induces bounds on angular position ϑ(t) ∈ [ϑ-(t), ϑ+(t)]. These bounds are propagated through angle-domain resampling and a Welch-type spectral estimator to obtain order-wise PSD bounds S(m) ∈ [S-(m), S+(m)], together with interval band metrics formed by order-band integration and log-level reporting. A numerical run-up case study with physically plausible harmonic content and broadband noise shows that low-order components can remain stable in peak location, whereas higher orders exhibit measurable peak-shift intervals consistent with phase-warp amplification under bounded mapping uncertainty. The results also quantify a practical coverage-width trade-off: fast endpoint envelopes can lose inclusion under larger uncertainty, indicating when multi-map sampling or tighter set membership bounding should be applied. Overall, the proposed interval-valued spectral estimators enable decision-relevant reporting of uncertainty for order-based health indicators and reduce the risk of overconfident fault declarations in variable-speed condition monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Database: Engineering Source
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