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A Dynamic Grey-Stochastic Model for Creep Degradation Analysis of Ceramic Matrix Composites with Limited Data.

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Title: A Dynamic Grey-Stochastic Model for Creep Degradation Analysis of Ceramic Matrix Composites with Limited Data.
Authors: Zhang, Shiyun1,2, Fang, Zhigeng1,2 zhigengfang@163.com, Yang, Yifan1,2, Du, Yangyang1,2, Tao, Liangyan1,2, Song, Zhengyu3, Wang, Xiaowei3
Source: Journal of Grey System. 2026, Vol. 38 Issue 2, p70-81. 12p.
Subjects: Ceramic-matrix composites, Stochastic processes, Uncertainty (Information theory), Strains & stresses (Mechanics)
Abstract: Aiming at the problems of scarce data, poor dynamic adaptability of models, and difficulty in uncertainty quantification faced in the prediction of high-temperature creep performance of SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composites for aero-engines, this paper proposes a degradation trajectory model integrating the metabolic GM(1,1) model, stochastic process, and grey cloud theory. By dynamically updating the data sequence, the model captures the creep trend in real time, and uses the grey cloud model to quantify the randomness and fuzziness in the creep process, realizing the cloud droplet distribution characterization of the performance degradation range. Case analysis shows that the proposed model outperforms traditional methods in both prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification capability, providing an effective tool for the life assessment and reliability design of blade materials under extreme environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Grey System is the property of Research Information Ltd. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
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Header DbId: egs
DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 193832190
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PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
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  Label: Title
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  Data: A Dynamic Grey-Stochastic Model for Creep Degradation Analysis of Ceramic Matrix Composites with Limited Data.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Grey+System%22">Journal of Grey System</searchLink>. 2026, Vol. 38 Issue 2, p70-81. 12p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ceramic-matrix+composites%22">Ceramic-matrix composites</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Stochastic+processes%22">Stochastic processes</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Uncertainty+%28Information+theory%29%22">Uncertainty (Information theory)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Strains+%26+stresses+%28Mechanics%29%22">Strains & stresses (Mechanics)</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Aiming at the problems of scarce data, poor dynamic adaptability of models, and difficulty in uncertainty quantification faced in the prediction of high-temperature creep performance of SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composites for aero-engines, this paper proposes a degradation trajectory model integrating the metabolic GM(1,1) model, stochastic process, and grey cloud theory. By dynamically updating the data sequence, the model captures the creep trend in real time, and uses the grey cloud model to quantify the randomness and fuzziness in the creep process, realizing the cloud droplet distribution characterization of the performance degradation range. Case analysis shows that the proposed model outperforms traditional methods in both prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification capability, providing an effective tool for the life assessment and reliability design of blade materials under extreme environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Grey System is the property of Research Information Ltd. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 12
        StartPage: 70
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      – SubjectFull: Ceramic-matrix composites
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Stochastic processes
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      – SubjectFull: Uncertainty (Information theory)
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              Text: 2026
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