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Unforced interannual to decadal variability of global radiation imbalance: Role of low clouds.

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Title: Unforced interannual to decadal variability of global radiation imbalance: Role of low clouds.
Authors: Miyamoto, Ayumu1 (AUTHOR) aymiyamoto@ucsd.edu, Xie, Shang-Ping1 (AUTHOR), Deser, Clara2 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Climate. May2026, Vol. 39 Issue 10, p1-15. 15p.
Subjects: El Niño, Stratus clouds, Ocean temperature, Climate feedbacks, Climate change, Radiative forcing
Geographic Terms: Pacific Ocean
Abstract: The global-mean radiation imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (GMTOA) is an important indicator of the climate response to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. Natural variability perturbs this radiation imbalance on interannual and decadal timescales, confounding the externally forced signal. However, limited observations hinder efforts to understand the mechanisms of internally generated radiation imbalance. This study investigates the natural variability of global TOA radiation using a 500-year preindustrial coupled simulation with the Community Earth System Model version 2, and a corresponding atmospheric model simulation forced with daily sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice from the coupled run. GMTOA variations lead those in tropical Pacific SST and global-mean surface temperature by 90° in phase, and are attributed to timescale-dependent SST patterns and associated low-cloud radiative effects. Interannual GMTOA peaks are driven by the development and decay of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which induce low-cloud anomalies that are maximized over the equatorial northeast Pacific. In contrast, decadal GMTOA variability stems from variations in eastern subtropical low cloud decks coupled with underlying SST anomalies. These low cloud-SST co-variations are triggered by stochastic extratropical atmospheric variability. This timescale dependence reflects the characteristics of these drivers: the amplitude of ENSO peaks at interannual timescales due to tropical ocean dynamics, whereas extratropical stochastic forcing on SST becomes increasingly important on decadal and longer timescales. Recent satellite observations of GMTOA corroborate both mechanisms. This study underscores the importance of subtropical low cloud-SST co-variations driven by extratropical atmospheric forcing in unforced variability of global energy imbalance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Label: Title
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  Data: Unforced interannual to decadal variability of global radiation imbalance: Role of low clouds.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Climate%22">Journal of Climate</searchLink>. May2026, Vol. 39 Issue 10, p1-15. 15p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22El+Niño%22">El Niño</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Stratus+clouds%22">Stratus clouds</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ocean+temperature%22">Ocean temperature</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+feedbacks%22">Climate feedbacks</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Radiative+forcing%22">Radiative forcing</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Pacific+Ocean%22">Pacific Ocean</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: The global-mean radiation imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (GMTOA) is an important indicator of the climate response to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. Natural variability perturbs this radiation imbalance on interannual and decadal timescales, confounding the externally forced signal. However, limited observations hinder efforts to understand the mechanisms of internally generated radiation imbalance. This study investigates the natural variability of global TOA radiation using a 500-year preindustrial coupled simulation with the Community Earth System Model version 2, and a corresponding atmospheric model simulation forced with daily sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice from the coupled run. GMTOA variations lead those in tropical Pacific SST and global-mean surface temperature by 90° in phase, and are attributed to timescale-dependent SST patterns and associated low-cloud radiative effects. Interannual GMTOA peaks are driven by the development and decay of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which induce low-cloud anomalies that are maximized over the equatorial northeast Pacific. In contrast, decadal GMTOA variability stems from variations in eastern subtropical low cloud decks coupled with underlying SST anomalies. These low cloud-SST co-variations are triggered by stochastic extratropical atmospheric variability. This timescale dependence reflects the characteristics of these drivers: the amplitude of ENSO peaks at interannual timescales due to tropical ocean dynamics, whereas extratropical stochastic forcing on SST becomes increasingly important on decadal and longer timescales. Recent satellite observations of GMTOA corroborate both mechanisms. This study underscores the importance of subtropical low cloud-SST co-variations driven by extratropical atmospheric forcing in unforced variability of global energy imbalance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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        Value: 10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0320.1
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: El Niño
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Stratus clouds
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ocean temperature
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate feedbacks
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Radiative forcing
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Pacific Ocean
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Unforced interannual to decadal variability of global radiation imbalance: Role of low clouds.
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            NameFull: Miyamoto, Ayumu
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            NameFull: Xie, Shang-Ping
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            NameFull: Deser, Clara
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            – D: 15
              M: 05
              Text: May2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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