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Comments on "Mediterranean Drying by a Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Trend over the Last 65 Years Is an Extreme Outlier in the CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble".

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Title: Comments on "Mediterranean Drying by a Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Trend over the Last 65 Years Is an Extreme Outlier in the CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble".
Authors: Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.1,2 (AUTHOR), Domínguez-Castro, Fernando1,2 (AUTHOR), Beguería, Santiago2,3 (AUTHOR), Halifa-Marin, Amar1,2 (AUTHOR), Lima, Miguel M.4 (AUTHOR), Trigo, Ricardo4 (AUTHOR), Gimeno, Luis5,6,7 (AUTHOR), García-Herrera, Ricardo8,9 (AUTHOR), Lionello, Piero10 (AUTHOR), Brunetti, Michele11 (AUTHOR), Tramblay, Yves12 (AUTHOR), Maugeri, Maurizio13 (AUTHOR), Gonzalez-Hidalgo, José Carlos2,14,15 (AUTHOR), Azorin-Molina, Cesar16 (AUTHOR), Cheval, Sorin17 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Climate. May2026, Vol. 39 Issue 10, p2829-2845. 17p.
Subjects: North Atlantic oscillation, Precipitation variability, Atmospheric circulation, Weather & climate change, Atmospheric models, Climate reconstruction (Research)
Geographic Terms: Mediterranean Sea
Abstract: This comment addresses the interpretation of recent findings reported by Seager et al., who identify widespread winter drying across the Mediterranean region during 1959–2023 and link this signal to a positive trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), characterized as an extreme outlier in the CMIP6 multimodel ensemble. Given the strong interannual and multidecadal variability that typifies Mediterranean hydroclimate, we argue that these conclusions require careful reassessment within a broader temporal and dynamical framework. Using evidence from high-density homogenized station observations, instrumental NAO indices extending back to the early nineteenth century, CMIP6 historical and preindustrial control simulations, and multiple paleoclimate NAO reconstructions, we evaluate the robustness of both the reported precipitation and NAO trends. We show that the winter drying identified for the 1959–2023 period is highly sensitive to the choice of the starting decade and largely reflects the influence of anomalously wet conditions during the 1960s. When longer records are considered, Mediterranean winter precipitation is dominated by variability rather than by a persistent basinwide trend. Similarly, the positive NAO trend over the last 65 years is shown to be consistent with internal atmospheric variability. Comparable multidecadal NAO trends and decades with strongly negative NAO values occur repeatedly in unforced model simulations and in proxy-based reconstructions over the last several centuries, indicating that the recent evolution of the NAO is not exceptional in a long-term context. This comment emphasizes the importance of distinguishing short-term variability from long-term change when interpreting observational trends in highly variable regions. We stress that recent observations should not be overinterpreted as evidence of an unprecedented or forced shift in Mediterranean winter precipitation or NAO behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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Header DbId: egs
DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 193865947
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PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
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Items – Name: Title
  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: Comments on "Mediterranean Drying by a Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Trend over the Last 65 Years Is an Extreme Outlier in the CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble".
– Name: Author
  Label: Authors
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Vicente-Serrano%2C+Sergio+M%2E%22">Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Domínguez-Castro%2C+Fernando%22">Domínguez-Castro, Fernando</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Beguería%2C+Santiago%22">Beguería, Santiago</searchLink><relatesTo>2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Halifa-Marin%2C+Amar%22">Halifa-Marin, Amar</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Lima%2C+Miguel+M%2E%22">Lima, Miguel M.</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Trigo%2C+Ricardo%22">Trigo, Ricardo</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Gimeno%2C+Luis%22">Gimeno, Luis</searchLink><relatesTo>5,6,7</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22García-Herrera%2C+Ricardo%22">García-Herrera, Ricardo</searchLink><relatesTo>8,9</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Lionello%2C+Piero%22">Lionello, Piero</searchLink><relatesTo>10</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Brunetti%2C+Michele%22">Brunetti, Michele</searchLink><relatesTo>11</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Tramblay%2C+Yves%22">Tramblay, Yves</searchLink><relatesTo>12</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Maugeri%2C+Maurizio%22">Maugeri, Maurizio</searchLink><relatesTo>13</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Gonzalez-Hidalgo%2C+José+Carlos%22">Gonzalez-Hidalgo, José Carlos</searchLink><relatesTo>2,14,15</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Azorin-Molina%2C+Cesar%22">Azorin-Molina, Cesar</searchLink><relatesTo>16</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Cheval%2C+Sorin%22">Cheval, Sorin</searchLink><relatesTo>17</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Climate%22">Journal of Climate</searchLink>. May2026, Vol. 39 Issue 10, p2829-2845. 17p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22North+Atlantic+oscillation%22">North Atlantic oscillation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Precipitation+variability%22">Precipitation variability</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+circulation%22">Atmospheric circulation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Weather+%26+climate+change%22">Weather & climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+models%22">Atmospheric models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+reconstruction+%28Research%29%22">Climate reconstruction (Research)</searchLink>
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  Label: Geographic Terms
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mediterranean+Sea%22">Mediterranean Sea</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: This comment addresses the interpretation of recent findings reported by Seager et al., who identify widespread winter drying across the Mediterranean region during 1959–2023 and link this signal to a positive trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), characterized as an extreme outlier in the CMIP6 multimodel ensemble. Given the strong interannual and multidecadal variability that typifies Mediterranean hydroclimate, we argue that these conclusions require careful reassessment within a broader temporal and dynamical framework. Using evidence from high-density homogenized station observations, instrumental NAO indices extending back to the early nineteenth century, CMIP6 historical and preindustrial control simulations, and multiple paleoclimate NAO reconstructions, we evaluate the robustness of both the reported precipitation and NAO trends. We show that the winter drying identified for the 1959–2023 period is highly sensitive to the choice of the starting decade and largely reflects the influence of anomalously wet conditions during the 1960s. When longer records are considered, Mediterranean winter precipitation is dominated by variability rather than by a persistent basinwide trend. Similarly, the positive NAO trend over the last 65 years is shown to be consistent with internal atmospheric variability. Comparable multidecadal NAO trends and decades with strongly negative NAO values occur repeatedly in unforced model simulations and in proxy-based reconstructions over the last several centuries, indicating that the recent evolution of the NAO is not exceptional in a long-term context. This comment emphasizes the importance of distinguishing short-term variability from long-term change when interpreting observational trends in highly variable regions. We stress that recent observations should not be overinterpreted as evidence of an unprecedented or forced shift in Mediterranean winter precipitation or NAO behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1175/JCLI-D-26-0055.1
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 17
        StartPage: 2829
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: North Atlantic oscillation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Precipitation variability
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric circulation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Weather & climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate reconstruction (Research)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Mediterranean Sea
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Comments on "Mediterranean Drying by a Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Trend over the Last 65 Years Is an Extreme Outlier in the CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble".
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            NameFull: Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.
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            – D: 15
              M: 05
              Text: May2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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