Global and regional climate modes modulate armed conflict risk.
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| Title: | Global and regional climate modes modulate armed conflict risk. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Bagwell, Tyler E.1 tyler.e.bagwell@rice.edu, Dee, Sylvia G.2, Luo, Xinyue3, Stravato, Anna4, Saikumar, Divya5, Viens, Frederi1, Lee, Bomi K.6, O'Brien, Diana Z.7, Mankin, Justin S.8 |
| Source: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 5/19/2026, Vol. 123 Issue 20, p1-12. 75p. |
| Subjects: | El Niño, Modes of variability (Climatology), Climate change, War, Social stability |
| Geographic Terms: | Southeast Asia, Horn of Africa |
| Abstract: | Because of their impacts on droughts, famines, and floods, modes of climate variability can shape patterns of social instability. Yet the mechanisms linking climate variability to armed conflict remain contested, especially relative to the myriad sociopolitical and economic determinants of conflict. A key challenge is that most studies rely on coarse, state-level data and treat climatic teleconnections as invariant. As such, it is unknown whether there are distinct climate hazards that select for conflict risk; whether conflict scales with climate hazard exposure; and whether such associations exist for more regional forms of climate variability. Here we leverage empirical modeling using a highresolution gridded dataset of armed conflicts and the natural experiment afforded by two major climate modes--the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)--to clarify how systematic hydroclimatic anomalies influence conflict emergence. Our results reveal the following: First, conflict risk heightens during El Niño, but ENSO-associated risk does not scale linearly with teleconnection strength; and, evidence for threshold behavior varies with spatial aggregation. Second, El Niño-related increases in conflict risk arise through its dry teleconnections, with limited evidence for wet teleconnections. Finally, the more regionally confined IOD also influences conflict, with both positive and negative phases elevating risk in strongly teleconnected regions, namely the Horn of Africa and Southeast Asia. These results reveal that modes of climate variability can differentially shape conflict risk, offering insight into societies' vulnerabilities to natural climate fluctuations and, by extension, anthropogenic climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America is the property of National Academy of Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
| FullText | Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 194071173 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Global and regional climate modes modulate armed conflict risk. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bagwell%2C+Tyler+E%2E%22">Bagwell, Tyler E.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> tyler.e.bagwell@rice.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dee%2C+Sylvia+G%2E%22">Dee, Sylvia G.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Luo%2C+Xinyue%22">Luo, Xinyue</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Stravato%2C+Anna%22">Stravato, Anna</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Saikumar%2C+Divya%22">Saikumar, Divya</searchLink><relatesTo>5</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Viens%2C+Frederi%22">Viens, Frederi</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Lee%2C+Bomi+K%2E%22">Lee, Bomi K.</searchLink><relatesTo>6</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22O'Brien%2C+Diana+Z%2E%22">O'Brien, Diana Z.</searchLink><relatesTo>7</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mankin%2C+Justin+S%2E%22">Mankin, Justin S.</searchLink><relatesTo>8</relatesTo> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Proceedings+of+the+National+Academy+of+Sciences+of+the+United+States+of+America%22">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</searchLink>. 5/19/2026, Vol. 123 Issue 20, p1-12. 75p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22El+Niño%22">El Niño</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Modes+of+variability+%28Climatology%29%22">Modes of variability (Climatology)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22War%22">War</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Social+stability%22">Social stability</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Southeast+Asia%22">Southeast Asia</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Horn+of+Africa%22">Horn of Africa</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Because of their impacts on droughts, famines, and floods, modes of climate variability can shape patterns of social instability. Yet the mechanisms linking climate variability to armed conflict remain contested, especially relative to the myriad sociopolitical and economic determinants of conflict. A key challenge is that most studies rely on coarse, state-level data and treat climatic teleconnections as invariant. As such, it is unknown whether there are distinct climate hazards that select for conflict risk; whether conflict scales with climate hazard exposure; and whether such associations exist for more regional forms of climate variability. Here we leverage empirical modeling using a highresolution gridded dataset of armed conflicts and the natural experiment afforded by two major climate modes--the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)--to clarify how systematic hydroclimatic anomalies influence conflict emergence. Our results reveal the following: First, conflict risk heightens during El Niño, but ENSO-associated risk does not scale linearly with teleconnection strength; and, evidence for threshold behavior varies with spatial aggregation. Second, El Niño-related increases in conflict risk arise through its dry teleconnections, with limited evidence for wet teleconnections. Finally, the more regionally confined IOD also influences conflict, with both positive and negative phases elevating risk in strongly teleconnected regions, namely the Horn of Africa and Southeast Asia. These results reveal that modes of climate variability can differentially shape conflict risk, offering insight into societies' vulnerabilities to natural climate fluctuations and, by extension, anthropogenic climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America is the property of National Academy of Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1073/pnas.2532935123 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 75 StartPage: 1 Subjects: – SubjectFull: El Niño Type: general – SubjectFull: Modes of variability (Climatology) Type: general – SubjectFull: Climate change Type: general – SubjectFull: War Type: general – SubjectFull: Social stability Type: general – SubjectFull: Southeast Asia Type: general – SubjectFull: Horn of Africa Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Global and regional climate modes modulate armed conflict risk. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Bagwell, Tyler E. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Dee, Sylvia G. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Luo, Xinyue – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Stravato, Anna – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Saikumar, Divya – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Viens, Frederi – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Lee, Bomi K. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: O'Brien, Diana Z. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Mankin, Justin S. IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 19 M: 05 Text: 5/19/2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 00278424 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 123 – Type: issue Value: 20 Titles: – TitleFull: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Type: main |
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