Modelling ecosystem response in the climate change era: the potential distribution of Natura 2000 priority habitat types in Greece under future climate scenarios.
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| Title: | Modelling ecosystem response in the climate change era: the potential distribution of Natura 2000 priority habitat types in Greece under future climate scenarios. |
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| Authors: | Kouris, Alexandros D.1 (AUTHOR), Kallimanis, Athanasios S.2 (AUTHOR), Dimopoulos, Panayotis3 (AUTHOR), Kokkoris, Ioannis P.1 (AUTHOR) ipkokkoris@upatras.gr |
| Source: | Ecological Modelling. Sep2026, Vol. 519, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p. |
| Subjects: | Natura 2000 (Network), Climate change, Ecological resilience, Conservation of natural resources, Species distribution, Biodiversity |
| Geographic Terms: | Greece |
| Abstract: | • Most Priority Habitat types of Greece face adverse conditions due to climate change. • Dune forests face complete loss of potential areas in future projections. • Temporary ponds and calcareous fens are predicted to be unaffected by climate change. • SDMs methodological framework seems to capture complex inter-habitat mechanics. • Management practices should be tailored with consideration of habitat type. Natura 2000 priority habitat types of Greece face significant threats due to climate change. This study tests and demonstrates how distribution modelling predicts priority habitat types' potential distribution, under various socio-economic scenario pathways extending to the year 2080, by employing MaxEnt species distribution modelling in order to capture habitat-wide climatic and anthropogenic dependencies. Across 10 priority habitat types in this study (10 out of the 18 found in Greece), model training outputs good-to-excellent predictive performance scores, which in turn reveal substantial heterogeneity in future range dynamics. By 2080, seven of the ten habitat types are projected to experience a suitable area contraction, with three (Wooded dunes with Pinus pinea and/or Pinus pinaster [2270], Species-rich Nardus grasslands, on siliceous substrates in mountain areas [6230], and (Sub-)Mediterranean pine forests with endemic blackpines [9530]) projected to lose >90% of suitable area, whereas the remaining types appear comparatively stable or show net expansion. Notably, 2270 is projected to lose all suitable area under all scenarios. Additionally, projected gains in suitability frequently occur far from current ranges and may fall partially outside present-day distributions, indicating potential spatial mismatch and management challenges. This study highlights the urgency for conservation management adapted to the needs of each habitat type in the frame of documented climate change impact, and provides a crucial tool for the implementation of biodiversity policies and strategies for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on priority habitat types, from the local- to European- scale. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Ecological Modelling is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
| FullText | Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 194447418 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Modelling ecosystem response in the climate change era: the potential distribution of Natura 2000 priority habitat types in Greece under future climate scenarios. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kouris%2C+Alexandros+D%2E%22">Kouris, Alexandros D.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kallimanis%2C+Athanasios+S%2E%22">Kallimanis, Athanasios S.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dimopoulos%2C+Panayotis%22">Dimopoulos, Panayotis</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kokkoris%2C+Ioannis+P%2E%22">Kokkoris, Ioannis P.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> ipkokkoris@upatras.gr</i> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Ecological+Modelling%22">Ecological Modelling</searchLink>. Sep2026, Vol. 519, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Natura+2000+%28Network%29%22">Natura 2000 (Network)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ecological+resilience%22">Ecological resilience</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Conservation+of+natural+resources%22">Conservation of natural resources</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Species+distribution%22">Species distribution</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Biodiversity%22">Biodiversity</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Greece%22">Greece</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: • Most Priority Habitat types of Greece face adverse conditions due to climate change. • Dune forests face complete loss of potential areas in future projections. • Temporary ponds and calcareous fens are predicted to be unaffected by climate change. • SDMs methodological framework seems to capture complex inter-habitat mechanics. • Management practices should be tailored with consideration of habitat type. Natura 2000 priority habitat types of Greece face significant threats due to climate change. This study tests and demonstrates how distribution modelling predicts priority habitat types' potential distribution, under various socio-economic scenario pathways extending to the year 2080, by employing MaxEnt species distribution modelling in order to capture habitat-wide climatic and anthropogenic dependencies. Across 10 priority habitat types in this study (10 out of the 18 found in Greece), model training outputs good-to-excellent predictive performance scores, which in turn reveal substantial heterogeneity in future range dynamics. By 2080, seven of the ten habitat types are projected to experience a suitable area contraction, with three (Wooded dunes with Pinus pinea and/or Pinus pinaster [2270], Species-rich Nardus grasslands, on siliceous substrates in mountain areas [6230], and (Sub-)Mediterranean pine forests with endemic blackpines [9530]) projected to lose >90% of suitable area, whereas the remaining types appear comparatively stable or show net expansion. Notably, 2270 is projected to lose all suitable area under all scenarios. Additionally, projected gains in suitability frequently occur far from current ranges and may fall partially outside present-day distributions, indicating potential spatial mismatch and management challenges. This study highlights the urgency for conservation management adapted to the needs of each habitat type in the frame of documented climate change impact, and provides a crucial tool for the implementation of biodiversity policies and strategies for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on priority habitat types, from the local- to European- scale. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Ecological Modelling is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111633 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 1 StartPage: N.PAG Subjects: – SubjectFull: Natura 2000 (Network) Type: general – SubjectFull: Climate change Type: general – SubjectFull: Ecological resilience Type: general – SubjectFull: Conservation of natural resources Type: general – SubjectFull: Species distribution Type: general – SubjectFull: Biodiversity Type: general – SubjectFull: Greece Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Modelling ecosystem response in the climate change era: the potential distribution of Natura 2000 priority habitat types in Greece under future climate scenarios. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Kouris, Alexandros D. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Kallimanis, Athanasios S. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Dimopoulos, Panayotis – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Kokkoris, Ioannis P. IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 09 Text: Sep2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 03043800 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 519 Titles: – TitleFull: Ecological Modelling Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
