Verification of Probabilistic SPC Convective Outlooks from 2002–2023 Using Probabilistic Contingency Tables and Optical Flow Displacement.
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| Title: | Verification of Probabilistic SPC Convective Outlooks from 2002–2023 Using Probabilistic Contingency Tables and Optical Flow Displacement. |
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| Authors: | Epstein, Miles1 (AUTHOR) milesep@uw.edu, Anderson-Frey, Alex1 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Weather & Forecasting. May2026, Vol. 41 Issue 5, p1-16. 16p. |
| Subjects: | Contingency tables, Motion estimation (Signal processing), United States. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Forecasting, Severe storms, Weather forecasting, Thunderstorms, Thunderstorm forecasting |
| Abstract: | The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center issues daily Convective Outlooks outlining spatial risk levels for severe thunderstorms with up to eight days of lead time. Since 2002, categorical Outlooks area function of the hazard-specific (hail, wind, and tornado) probabilistic Outlooks, which forecast the probability that each of these hazards will occur at a severe level within 25 miles of a given point. We develop two methods for evaluating gridded probabilistic Day 1 Outlook fields against their associated Local Storm Reports (LSRs) and Practically Perfect Hindcasts (PPH; smoothed LSRs): probabilistic contingency tables and optical flow displacement. Probabilistic contingency tables reveal a trend toward underforecasting over the study period (2002–2023), strongest for wind. These results are based on storm coverage (using an imperfect storm report dataset) and do not reflect forecast intensity or user perception of forecasts. This finding highlights the nuanced considerations involved in issuing and verifying Convective Outlooks. Next, an optical flow displacement method demonstrates utility in depicting how an Outlook could be deformed to better match PPH. Analysis across this study period reveals small spatial biases in Outlooks on moderate- and high-risk days, most notably that hail Outlooks tend to be centered too far east while wind Outlooks tend to be centered too far west relative to PPH. These findings may help guide forecasters in issuing Convective Outlooks and act as a basis for future research on Convective Outlooks and thunderstorm dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Weather & Forecasting is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
| FullText | Links: – Type: pdflink Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 194578058 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Verification of Probabilistic SPC Convective Outlooks from 2002–2023 Using Probabilistic Contingency Tables and Optical Flow Displacement. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Epstein%2C+Miles%22">Epstein, Miles</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> milesep@uw.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Anderson-Frey%2C+Alex%22">Anderson-Frey, Alex</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Weather+%26+Forecasting%22">Weather & Forecasting</searchLink>. May2026, Vol. 41 Issue 5, p1-16. 16p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Contingency+tables%22">Contingency tables</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Motion+estimation+%28Signal+processing%29%22">Motion estimation (Signal processing)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22United+States%2E+National+Oceanic+%26+Atmospheric+Administration%22">United States. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Forecasting%22">Forecasting</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Severe+storms%22">Severe storms</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Weather+forecasting%22">Weather forecasting</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Thunderstorms%22">Thunderstorms</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Thunderstorm+forecasting%22">Thunderstorm forecasting</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center issues daily Convective Outlooks outlining spatial risk levels for severe thunderstorms with up to eight days of lead time. Since 2002, categorical Outlooks area function of the hazard-specific (hail, wind, and tornado) probabilistic Outlooks, which forecast the probability that each of these hazards will occur at a severe level within 25 miles of a given point. We develop two methods for evaluating gridded probabilistic Day 1 Outlook fields against their associated Local Storm Reports (LSRs) and Practically Perfect Hindcasts (PPH; smoothed LSRs): probabilistic contingency tables and optical flow displacement. Probabilistic contingency tables reveal a trend toward underforecasting over the study period (2002–2023), strongest for wind. These results are based on storm coverage (using an imperfect storm report dataset) and do not reflect forecast intensity or user perception of forecasts. This finding highlights the nuanced considerations involved in issuing and verifying Convective Outlooks. Next, an optical flow displacement method demonstrates utility in depicting how an Outlook could be deformed to better match PPH. Analysis across this study period reveals small spatial biases in Outlooks on moderate- and high-risk days, most notably that hail Outlooks tend to be centered too far east while wind Outlooks tend to be centered too far west relative to PPH. These findings may help guide forecasters in issuing Convective Outlooks and act as a basis for future research on Convective Outlooks and thunderstorm dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Weather & Forecasting is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1175/WAF-D-25-0085.1 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 16 StartPage: 1 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Contingency tables Type: general – SubjectFull: Motion estimation (Signal processing) Type: general – SubjectFull: United States. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration Type: general – SubjectFull: Forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Severe storms Type: general – SubjectFull: Weather forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Thunderstorms Type: general – SubjectFull: Thunderstorm forecasting Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Verification of Probabilistic SPC Convective Outlooks from 2002–2023 Using Probabilistic Contingency Tables and Optical Flow Displacement. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Epstein, Miles – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Anderson-Frey, Alex IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 05 Text: May2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 08828156 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 41 – Type: issue Value: 5 Titles: – TitleFull: Weather & Forecasting Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
