Revealing Weekly-Scale Drivers of North American Winter Storm Track Variability Using a Causal Discovery Framework.
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| Title: | Revealing Weekly-Scale Drivers of North American Winter Storm Track Variability Using a Causal Discovery Framework. |
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| Authors: | SHAN HE1 heshan9@alumni.sysu.edu.cn, CHANG, EDMUND K. M.1, CHENG ZHENG1, JAEYEON LEE2, XIAOSONG YANG3 |
| Source: | Journal of Climate. Jun2026, Vol. 39 Issue 11, p1-15. 15p. |
| Subjects: | Causal models, Atmospheric circulation, Rossby waves, North Atlantic oscillation, Weather forecasting, Ocean temperature, Vertical wind shear |
| Geographic Terms: | North America, United States, Pacific Coast (U.S.), North Pacific Ocean, Atlantic Ocean |
| Abstract: | Storm tracks frequently produce winter weather extremes across North America. However, their weekly-scale variability remains challenging to explain, since atmospheric and oceanic processes, both local and remote, interact in complex ways. This study uses a causal discovery framework to pinpoint and evaluate the drivers of the North American winter storm track activity on a weekly scale. Unlike correlation-based statistical methods, causal discovery methods factor in confounders and time dependence, enabling them to distinguish true drivers from spurious associations. By incorporating a resampling procedure, the framework quantifies the degree of confidence for candidate drivers, thus revealing the most probable pathways influencing the storm track variability. The two strongest pathways are analyzed. The first arises from anomalous atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific. This anomaly excites a quasi-stationary Rossby wave train to affect the vertical wind shear over the U.S. West Coast one week later. Hence, the downstream baroclinic development changes, thereby altering the storm track activity over central–eastern North America. The second pathway involves rapid air–sea coupling over the North Atlantic, where the low-level wind anomalies related to the North Atlantic Oscillation alter surface heat fluxes to induce a tripolar pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies one week later. This SST tripole then affects the baroclinicity upstream and thus the storm track activity over northern North America. By isolating different processes that drive storm track variability, the framework could enhance our understanding and prediction of midlatitude weather as well as climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 194578134 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Revealing Weekly-Scale Drivers of North American Winter Storm Track Variability Using a Causal Discovery Framework. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22SHAN+HE%22">SHAN HE</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> heshan9@alumni.sysu.edu.cn</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22CHANG%2C+EDMUND+K%2E+M%2E%22">CHANG, EDMUND K. M.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22CHENG+ZHENG%22">CHENG ZHENG</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22JAEYEON+LEE%22">JAEYEON LEE</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22XIAOSONG+YANG%22">XIAOSONG YANG</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Climate%22">Journal of Climate</searchLink>. Jun2026, Vol. 39 Issue 11, p1-15. 15p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Causal+models%22">Causal models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+circulation%22">Atmospheric circulation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rossby+waves%22">Rossby waves</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22North+Atlantic+oscillation%22">North Atlantic oscillation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Weather+forecasting%22">Weather forecasting</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ocean+temperature%22">Ocean temperature</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Vertical+wind+shear%22">Vertical wind shear</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22North+America%22">North America</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22United+States%22">United States</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Pacific+Coast+%28U%2ES%2E%29%22">Pacific Coast (U.S.)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22North+Pacific+Ocean%22">North Pacific Ocean</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atlantic+Ocean%22">Atlantic Ocean</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Storm tracks frequently produce winter weather extremes across North America. However, their weekly-scale variability remains challenging to explain, since atmospheric and oceanic processes, both local and remote, interact in complex ways. This study uses a causal discovery framework to pinpoint and evaluate the drivers of the North American winter storm track activity on a weekly scale. Unlike correlation-based statistical methods, causal discovery methods factor in confounders and time dependence, enabling them to distinguish true drivers from spurious associations. By incorporating a resampling procedure, the framework quantifies the degree of confidence for candidate drivers, thus revealing the most probable pathways influencing the storm track variability. The two strongest pathways are analyzed. The first arises from anomalous atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific. This anomaly excites a quasi-stationary Rossby wave train to affect the vertical wind shear over the U.S. West Coast one week later. Hence, the downstream baroclinic development changes, thereby altering the storm track activity over central–eastern North America. The second pathway involves rapid air–sea coupling over the North Atlantic, where the low-level wind anomalies related to the North Atlantic Oscillation alter surface heat fluxes to induce a tripolar pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies one week later. This SST tripole then affects the baroclinicity upstream and thus the storm track activity over northern North America. By isolating different processes that drive storm track variability, the framework could enhance our understanding and prediction of midlatitude weather as well as climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
| PLink | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=egs&AN=194578134 |
| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0497.1 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 15 StartPage: 1 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Causal models Type: general – SubjectFull: Atmospheric circulation Type: general – SubjectFull: Rossby waves Type: general – SubjectFull: North Atlantic oscillation Type: general – SubjectFull: Weather forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Ocean temperature Type: general – SubjectFull: Vertical wind shear Type: general – SubjectFull: North America Type: general – SubjectFull: United States Type: general – SubjectFull: Pacific Coast (U.S.) Type: general – SubjectFull: North Pacific Ocean Type: general – SubjectFull: Atlantic Ocean Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Revealing Weekly-Scale Drivers of North American Winter Storm Track Variability Using a Causal Discovery Framework. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: SHAN HE – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: CHANG, EDMUND K. M. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: CHENG ZHENG – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: JAEYEON LEE – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: XIAOSONG YANG IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 06 Text: Jun2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 08948755 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 39 – Type: issue Value: 11 Titles: – TitleFull: Journal of Climate Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
