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Evolution of Compound Drought and Extreme Precipitation Events on the Tibetan Plateau.

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Title: Evolution of Compound Drought and Extreme Precipitation Events on the Tibetan Plateau.
Authors: Sun, Wence1,2 (AUTHOR), Yu, Zhongbo1,2 (AUTHOR), Jiang, Peng1,2,3 (AUTHOR) peng.jiang@hhu.edu.cn, Ju, Qin1,2 (AUTHOR), Yu, Lingling1,2 (AUTHOR), Xu, Xiaojie1,2 (AUTHOR), Yang, Bin3,4 (AUTHOR), Ou, Yubing1,2 (AUTHOR), DunZhu, Jiacuo5 (AUTHOR), Fu, Xiaolei6 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Climate. Jun2026, Vol. 39 Issue 12, p1-18. 18p.
Subjects: Droughts, Climate change, Uplands, Environmental risk, Monsoons, Water security, Rainstorms
Geographic Terms: Tsaidam Basin (China), Tibet (China)
Abstract: The Tibetan Plateau, often called the "Asian Water Tower," is highly sensitive to extreme droughts and intense precipitation because of its complex topography and strong monsoonal influences, which pose significant risks to regional and downstream water and ecosystem security. This study uses CMFD daily precipitation data for 1979 to 2015 and bias corrected and downscaled CMIP6 daily precipitation data for 2016 to 2100 to identify and project two types of sequential compound events: drought followed by extreme precipitation (CDEP) and extreme precipitation followed by drought (CWDE). A dynamic identification framework was applied, defining drought with a 30 day precipitation threshold, defining extreme precipitation with a 3 day threshold, and pairing events within intervals from one to three months. Our results show that the frequency of both CDEP and CWDE increases markedly with longer lag times. During the historical period, event hot spots were concentrated in the southern and central Plateau. Under future SSP scenarios, CDEP risk expands northward into interior arid regions such as Northern Tibet and the Qaidam Basin, while CWDE remains centered in the south and central Plateau but extends toward inland areas. Importantly, the increase in event frequency is not monotonic with warming; the strongest enhancement occurs under moderate emissions, specifically SSP245 and SSP370. Overall, warming and a moister atmosphere intensify the alternation between dry and wet extremes, driven by enhanced monsoonal moisture transport, orographic lifting, and stronger land-atmosphere coupling. These findings provide a scientific basis for improving drought and flood risk management and climate adaptation strategies in high mountain watersheds of the Tibetan Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Evolution of Compound Drought and Extreme Precipitation Events on the Tibetan Plateau.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sun%2C+Wence%22">Sun, Wence</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Yu%2C+Zhongbo%22">Yu, Zhongbo</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jiang%2C+Peng%22">Jiang, Peng</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> peng.jiang@hhu.edu.cn</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ju%2C+Qin%22">Ju, Qin</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Yu%2C+Lingling%22">Yu, Lingling</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Xu%2C+Xiaojie%22">Xu, Xiaojie</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Yang%2C+Bin%22">Yang, Bin</searchLink><relatesTo>3,4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ou%2C+Yubing%22">Ou, Yubing</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22DunZhu%2C+Jiacuo%22">DunZhu, Jiacuo</searchLink><relatesTo>5</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Fu%2C+Xiaolei%22">Fu, Xiaolei</searchLink><relatesTo>6</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Climate%22">Journal of Climate</searchLink>. Jun2026, Vol. 39 Issue 12, p1-18. 18p.
– Name: Subject
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Droughts%22">Droughts</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Uplands%22">Uplands</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Environmental+risk%22">Environmental risk</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Monsoons%22">Monsoons</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Water+security%22">Water security</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rainstorms%22">Rainstorms</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tsaidam+Basin+%28China%29%22">Tsaidam Basin (China)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tibet+%28China%29%22">Tibet (China)</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: The Tibetan Plateau, often called the "Asian Water Tower," is highly sensitive to extreme droughts and intense precipitation because of its complex topography and strong monsoonal influences, which pose significant risks to regional and downstream water and ecosystem security. This study uses CMFD daily precipitation data for 1979 to 2015 and bias corrected and downscaled CMIP6 daily precipitation data for 2016 to 2100 to identify and project two types of sequential compound events: drought followed by extreme precipitation (CDEP) and extreme precipitation followed by drought (CWDE). A dynamic identification framework was applied, defining drought with a 30 day precipitation threshold, defining extreme precipitation with a 3 day threshold, and pairing events within intervals from one to three months. Our results show that the frequency of both CDEP and CWDE increases markedly with longer lag times. During the historical period, event hot spots were concentrated in the southern and central Plateau. Under future SSP scenarios, CDEP risk expands northward into interior arid regions such as Northern Tibet and the Qaidam Basin, while CWDE remains centered in the south and central Plateau but extends toward inland areas. Importantly, the increase in event frequency is not monotonic with warming; the strongest enhancement occurs under moderate emissions, specifically SSP245 and SSP370. Overall, warming and a moister atmosphere intensify the alternation between dry and wet extremes, driven by enhanced monsoonal moisture transport, orographic lifting, and stronger land-atmosphere coupling. These findings provide a scientific basis for improving drought and flood risk management and climate adaptation strategies in high mountain watersheds of the Tibetan Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0306.1
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 18
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Droughts
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Uplands
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Environmental risk
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Monsoons
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Water security
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Rainstorms
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Tsaidam Basin (China)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Tibet (China)
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Evolution of Compound Drought and Extreme Precipitation Events on the Tibetan Plateau.
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            NameFull: Sun, Wence
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              M: 06
              Text: Jun2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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