View in EDS HTML Full Text PDF Full Text

Scale and seasonal dependent sensitivity of hydrologic projections in the Colorado River Basin to different downscaling methods.

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Title: Scale and seasonal dependent sensitivity of hydrologic projections in the Colorado River Basin to different downscaling methods.
Authors: Currier, William Ryan1 (AUTHOR) william.r.currier@noaa.gov, Abel, Mimi Rose1 (AUTHOR), Smith, Rebecca2 (AUTHOR), Prairie, Jim3 (AUTHOR), Baker, Sarah3 (AUTHOR), Butler, Alan2 (AUTHOR), Gutmann, Ethan D.4 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Hydrometeorology. May2026, Vol. 27 Issue 5, p1-13. 13p.
Subjects: Downscaling (Climatology), Streamflow, Watersheds, Atmospheric models, Meteorological precipitation, Hydrological forecasting, Water supply, Temperature
Geographic Terms: Colorado River Watershed (Colo.-Mexico)
Abstract: This study created future streamflow projections using dynamically downscaled precipitation and temperature projections from the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR) model and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model. These more physically realistic projections were compared with VIC simulations based on the widely utilized LOcalized Constructed Analog (LOCA) statistical downscaling method to evaluate how downscaling choices influence water supply estimates. ICAR's annual streamflow change at Lees Ferry, AZ was higher than LOCA in the ensemble mean due to equal influences from precipitation and temperature. However, annual streamflow changes at Lees Ferry were not significantly different between downscaling methods despite significant differences in precipitation and temperature as there was still a substantial spread and there were not systematic differences between downscaling methods across Earth System Models. Similar streamflow projections were the result of different seasonal and spatial patterns. For example, while ICAR projected less cool-season precipitation than LOCA at high elevations (>3000 m), summer precipitation projections, which are often characterized as more uncertain, differed substantially between downscaling methods and increased ICAR's streamflow projections relative to LOCA. Furthermore, downscaling decisions were more likely to affect streamflow projections at the local scale rather than the regional scale as 25–32% of the smaller catchments within the Upper Basin showed significant differences between downscaling methods in annual streamflow changes. Finally, this study considers the uncertainty and confidence in the process representation of precipitation and temperature, emphasizing how spatial and seasonal differences in these variables—and the ways their underlying processes are represented—directly influence streamflow projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Hydrometeorology is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
Full text is not displayed to guests.
FullText Links:
  – Type: pdflink
Text:
  Availability: 1
Header DbId: egs
DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 194578172
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
PreciseRelevancyScore: 0
IllustrationInfo
Items – Name: Title
  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: Scale and seasonal dependent sensitivity of hydrologic projections in the Colorado River Basin to different downscaling methods.
– Name: Author
  Label: Authors
  Group: Au
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Currier%2C+William+Ryan%22">Currier, William Ryan</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> william.r.currier@noaa.gov</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Abel%2C+Mimi+Rose%22">Abel, Mimi Rose</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Smith%2C+Rebecca%22">Smith, Rebecca</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Prairie%2C+Jim%22">Prairie, Jim</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Baker%2C+Sarah%22">Baker, Sarah</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Butler%2C+Alan%22">Butler, Alan</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Gutmann%2C+Ethan+D%2E%22">Gutmann, Ethan D.</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
– Name: TitleSource
  Label: Source
  Group: Src
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Hydrometeorology%22">Journal of Hydrometeorology</searchLink>. May2026, Vol. 27 Issue 5, p1-13. 13p.
– Name: Subject
  Label: Subjects
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Downscaling+%28Climatology%29%22">Downscaling (Climatology)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Streamflow%22">Streamflow</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Watersheds%22">Watersheds</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+models%22">Atmospheric models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Meteorological+precipitation%22">Meteorological precipitation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Hydrological+forecasting%22">Hydrological forecasting</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Water+supply%22">Water supply</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Temperature%22">Temperature</searchLink>
– Name: SubjectGeographic
  Label: Geographic Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Colorado+River+Watershed+%28Colo%2E-Mexico%29%22">Colorado River Watershed (Colo.-Mexico)</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: This study created future streamflow projections using dynamically downscaled precipitation and temperature projections from the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR) model and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model. These more physically realistic projections were compared with VIC simulations based on the widely utilized LOcalized Constructed Analog (LOCA) statistical downscaling method to evaluate how downscaling choices influence water supply estimates. ICAR's annual streamflow change at Lees Ferry, AZ was higher than LOCA in the ensemble mean due to equal influences from precipitation and temperature. However, annual streamflow changes at Lees Ferry were not significantly different between downscaling methods despite significant differences in precipitation and temperature as there was still a substantial spread and there were not systematic differences between downscaling methods across Earth System Models. Similar streamflow projections were the result of different seasonal and spatial patterns. For example, while ICAR projected less cool-season precipitation than LOCA at high elevations (>3000 m), summer precipitation projections, which are often characterized as more uncertain, differed substantially between downscaling methods and increased ICAR's streamflow projections relative to LOCA. Furthermore, downscaling decisions were more likely to affect streamflow projections at the local scale rather than the regional scale as 25–32% of the smaller catchments within the Upper Basin showed significant differences between downscaling methods in annual streamflow changes. Finally, this study considers the uncertainty and confidence in the process representation of precipitation and temperature, emphasizing how spatial and seasonal differences in these variables—and the ways their underlying processes are represented—directly influence streamflow projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Hydrometeorology is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=egs&AN=194578172
RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1175/JHM-D-25-0155.1
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 13
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Downscaling (Climatology)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Streamflow
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Watersheds
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Meteorological precipitation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Hydrological forecasting
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Water supply
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Temperature
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Colorado River Watershed (Colo.-Mexico)
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Scale and seasonal dependent sensitivity of hydrologic projections in the Colorado River Basin to different downscaling methods.
        Type: main
  BibRelationships:
    HasContributorRelationships:
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Currier, William Ryan
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Abel, Mimi Rose
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Smith, Rebecca
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Prairie, Jim
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Baker, Sarah
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Butler, Alan
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Gutmann, Ethan D.
    IsPartOfRelationships:
      – BibEntity:
          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 05
              Text: May2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
          Identifiers:
            – Type: issn-print
              Value: 1525755X
          Numbering:
            – Type: volume
              Value: 27
            – Type: issue
              Value: 5
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Journal of Hydrometeorology
              Type: main
ResultId 1