A Framework for Modeling Tropical Cyclone‐Induced Compound Flooding of the Continental US: Demonstrated in New Orleans.
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| Title: | A Framework for Modeling Tropical Cyclone‐Induced Compound Flooding of the Continental US: Demonstrated in New Orleans. |
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| Authors: | Green, Joshua1,2,3 (AUTHOR) J.Green@soton.ac.uk, Neal, Jeff2,3 (AUTHOR), Haigh, Ivan D.1,2 (AUTHOR), Wilkinson, Hamish2,3 (AUTHOR), Collings, Tom2 (AUTHOR), Addor, Nans2 (AUTHOR), Quinn, Niall2 (AUTHOR), Bruneau, Nicolas4 (AUTHOR), Loridan, Thomas4 (AUTHOR), Mani, Balaji4 (AUTHOR), Pranantyo, Ignatius R.4,5 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Water Resources Research. Jun2026, Vol. 62 Issue 6, p1-33. 33p. |
| Subjects: | Tropical cyclones, Floods, Flood forecasting, River deltas, Storm surges |
| Geographic Terms: | United States, Mississippi River Delta (La.), Lake Pontchartrain (La.), New Orleans (La.) |
| Abstract: | Compound flooding involves the interaction of multiple flood processes (e.g., coastal, fluvial, and pluvial) and is modulated by several factors (e.g., weather, climate, topobathy, morphology, time‐lag). In tropical and subtropical regions globally, Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are a primary cause of compound flooding as they generate substantial rainfall runoff and elevated river discharge, in combination with strong winds and low‐pressure systems that produce storm surges and waves. In this study, we develop a novel 30 m resolution compound flood modeling framework centered around Lisflood‐FP, SCHISM‐WWIII, SFINCS, FUSE, and MizuRoute to simulate compound coastal‐fluvial‐pluvial flooding across the continental US. This framework is demonstrated by simulating compound flooding associated with 9 historical TC events in the Greater New Orleans Metropolitan Area and the surrounding Mississippi River Delta. Findings reveal several regions that regularly encounter compound flood interactions during TC events, with the most prominent being Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and surrounding coastal estuary basins. For all TC events, the average maximum flood disturbance (water level increase from baseline conditions) across sites of nonlinear compound interactions is found to be underestimated by 60% or more if flood drivers are simulated separately and summed. Relationships identified between TC characteristics and compound flood magnitude (extent and intensity) for 9 events suggest that greater compounding correlates with intense (low minimum center pressure, high rainfall rate, and high maximum wind velocity) but concentrated (low maximum wind radius) storms. Lastly, suitable performance is observed by the model framework given the complex study area, which can be replicated for future research. Plain Language Summary: Compound flooding involves the interaction of multiple flood processes (e.g., coastal, river, and rainfall), which is modulated by meteorological and landscape characteristics. In many of the world's tropical and subtropical regions, storm events are a primary cause of compound flooding as they generate intense rainfall runoff and river discharge, in combination with strong winds that produce surge and waves. In this study, we develop a novel 30 m resolution compound flood modeling framework to simulate compound coastal‐river‐rainfall flooding across the continental US. This framework is demonstrated by simulating compound flooding associated with 9 historical storm events in the Greater New Orleans Metropolitan Area and the surrounding Mississippi River Delta. Findings reveal that Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain regularly experience intense compound flooding during storm events. Furthermore, flood magnitude in areas of compound interactions is found to be underestimated by 60% or more if flood drivers are simulated separately and summed. Relationships are identified between storm characteristics and the extent and magnitude of compound flood interactions for 9 events, suggesting that greater compounding correlates with intense but concentrated storm events. Lastly, suitable performance is observed by the model framework given the complex study area, which can be replicated for future research. Key Points: Intense compound flooding is repeatedly observed at Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and several coastal estuary basinsThe intensity and extent of compound flooding are greatly underestimated when flood drivers are simulated separately and linearly summedHigh compound flooding correlates with high rain rates, low min atmospheric pressure, high max wind speed, and low max wind radius [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: | Engineering Source |
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