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Non‐Perennial, Yet Predictable: Hierarchical Stream Activation Enables the Prediction of Channel Network Dynamics in Sporadically Monitored Catchments.

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Title: Non‐Perennial, Yet Predictable: Hierarchical Stream Activation Enables the Prediction of Channel Network Dynamics in Sporadically Monitored Catchments.
Authors: Barone, Francesca1 (AUTHOR), Durighetto, Nicola1 (AUTHOR), Botter, Gianluca1 (AUTHOR) gianluca.botter@dicea.unipd.it
Source: Water Resources Research. Jun2026, Vol. 62 Issue 6, p1-19. 19p.
Subjects: Ephemeral streams, Spatiotemporal processes, Watershed management, Water management, Hydrologic models, Streamflow
Abstract: Predicting the dynamics of non‐perennial river networks is essential for hydrological modeling and water resource management. Yet, long‐term monitoring campaigns remains logistically challenging, particularly in remote and poorly accessible regions. This study investigates whether the long‐term spatio‐temporal patterns of stream wetting and drying in a poorly accessible headwater catchment—the Focobon basin—can be inferred based on a limited number of sporadic field observations. To this end, we leverage the hierarchical activation principle, which posits that intermittent stream networks follow a consistent sequence of activation and deactivation: more persistent reaches tend to flow earlier during rainfall events and dry later during recessions. We combine this principle with dense monitoring data from a nearby and more accessible catchment, the Valfredda basin, where stream network dynamics have been extensively surveyed in the last 7 years. Our results show that the hierarchical principle not only holds within each individual catchment but also applies across the two catchments when considered as a single hydrologic system, with predictive accuracies exceeding 95% $95\%$ in all cases. This result reveals a structural coherence in stream dynamics across neighboring valleys, despite heterogeneity in elevation, aspect, land cover, and monitoring frequency. Using this framework, we successfully reconstructed the stream network dynamics in the Focobon basin during periods lacking direct observations, revealing that the basin is almost entirely non‐perennial. The proposed approach enables more efficient design of field campaigns, supports intermittent stream monitoring in data‐scarce or inaccessible basins, and offers a valuable tool for interpreting hydrological behavior under changing climate conditions. Key Points: Hierarchical structuring of channel dynamics applies across catchments, despite differences in geology, morphology and land coverThe hierarchical model enables spatial transfer of surface flow and channel activation timing across catchmentsThe application on two Alpine catchments reveals that one of them experienced a complete dry‐out while it was not monitored [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Database: Engineering Source
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Abstract:Predicting the dynamics of non‐perennial river networks is essential for hydrological modeling and water resource management. Yet, long‐term monitoring campaigns remains logistically challenging, particularly in remote and poorly accessible regions. This study investigates whether the long‐term spatio‐temporal patterns of stream wetting and drying in a poorly accessible headwater catchment—the Focobon basin—can be inferred based on a limited number of sporadic field observations. To this end, we leverage the hierarchical activation principle, which posits that intermittent stream networks follow a consistent sequence of activation and deactivation: more persistent reaches tend to flow earlier during rainfall events and dry later during recessions. We combine this principle with dense monitoring data from a nearby and more accessible catchment, the Valfredda basin, where stream network dynamics have been extensively surveyed in the last 7 years. Our results show that the hierarchical principle not only holds within each individual catchment but also applies across the two catchments when considered as a single hydrologic system, with predictive accuracies exceeding 95% $95\%$ in all cases. This result reveals a structural coherence in stream dynamics across neighboring valleys, despite heterogeneity in elevation, aspect, land cover, and monitoring frequency. Using this framework, we successfully reconstructed the stream network dynamics in the Focobon basin during periods lacking direct observations, revealing that the basin is almost entirely non‐perennial. The proposed approach enables more efficient design of field campaigns, supports intermittent stream monitoring in data‐scarce or inaccessible basins, and offers a valuable tool for interpreting hydrological behavior under changing climate conditions. Key Points: Hierarchical structuring of channel dynamics applies across catchments, despite differences in geology, morphology and land coverThe hierarchical model enables spatial transfer of surface flow and channel activation timing across catchmentsThe application on two Alpine catchments reveals that one of them experienced a complete dry‐out while it was not monitored [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:00431397
DOI:10.1029/2025WR041656