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ICEEMDAN-Informer: An Ionospheric foF2 Model at four locations along the American Meridian (60°W) sector.

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Title: ICEEMDAN-Informer: An Ionospheric foF2 Model at four locations along the American Meridian (60°W) sector.
Authors: Zhang, Renzhong1 (AUTHOR), Xu, Wukun2,3 (AUTHOR), Li, Wang1,2,3 (AUTHOR) liwang@kust.edu.cn, Zhao, Dongsheng1 (AUTHOR), Zhang, Kefei1,2,3 (AUTHOR)
Source: Advances in Space Research. Sep2026, Vol. 78 Issue 6, p6393-6409. 17p.
Subjects: Magnetic storms, Space environment, Shortwave radio
Abstract: The American meridian sector (60°W) is an important observation region of the International Meridian Circle Program (IMCP). Short-term forecasting of the ionospheric F2-layer critical frequency (foF2) in this region is of great significance for space weather monitoring and high-frequency (HF) communication support. To address the pronounced nonlinear and nonstationary characteristics of foF2 series and the limited accuracy of single deep learning models under different geomagnetic conditions, this study develops an improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN)-Informer hybrid model. The model first decomposes the original foF2 series using ICEEMDAN to reduce its nonstationarity and complexity, then employs Informer to capture long-term temporal dependencies in each component, and finally obtains the forecasting results through component reconstruction. This study uses foF2 observations from four ionosonde stations along the 60°W American meridian sector from 2000 to 2019 and introduces multiple solar-geomagnetic parameters as auxiliary inputs. The results show that, in the year-round validation for 2019, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the ICEEMDAN-Informer model ranges from 0.22 to 0.35 MHz at the four stations, with correlation coefficient (CC) values exceeding 0.97, outperforming the Informer, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and International Reference Ionosphere 2020 (IRI-2020) models. During geomagnetically quiet periods, the model yields a forecast bias within ±0.5 MHz. During multiple moderate geomagnetic storm events, the CC values remain around 0.99, demonstrating strong stability and generalization capability. The ICEEMDAN-Informer model maintains good stability across different stations and geomagnetic conditions, providing a useful reference for ionospheric parameter modeling and space weather applications along the IMCP observation chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Advances in Space Research is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: ICEEMDAN-Informer: An Ionospheric foF2 Model at four locations along the American Meridian (60°W) sector.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zhang%2C+Renzhong%22">Zhang, Renzhong</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Xu%2C+Wukun%22">Xu, Wukun</searchLink><relatesTo>2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Li%2C+Wang%22">Li, Wang</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> liwang@kust.edu.cn</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zhao%2C+Dongsheng%22">Zhao, Dongsheng</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zhang%2C+Kefei%22">Zhang, Kefei</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Advances+in+Space+Research%22">Advances in Space Research</searchLink>. Sep2026, Vol. 78 Issue 6, p6393-6409. 17p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Magnetic+storms%22">Magnetic storms</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Space+environment%22">Space environment</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Shortwave+radio%22">Shortwave radio</searchLink>
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  Data: The American meridian sector (60°W) is an important observation region of the International Meridian Circle Program (IMCP). Short-term forecasting of the ionospheric F2-layer critical frequency (foF2) in this region is of great significance for space weather monitoring and high-frequency (HF) communication support. To address the pronounced nonlinear and nonstationary characteristics of foF2 series and the limited accuracy of single deep learning models under different geomagnetic conditions, this study develops an improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN)-Informer hybrid model. The model first decomposes the original foF2 series using ICEEMDAN to reduce its nonstationarity and complexity, then employs Informer to capture long-term temporal dependencies in each component, and finally obtains the forecasting results through component reconstruction. This study uses foF2 observations from four ionosonde stations along the 60°W American meridian sector from 2000 to 2019 and introduces multiple solar-geomagnetic parameters as auxiliary inputs. The results show that, in the year-round validation for 2019, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the ICEEMDAN-Informer model ranges from 0.22 to 0.35 MHz at the four stations, with correlation coefficient (CC) values exceeding 0.97, outperforming the Informer, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and International Reference Ionosphere 2020 (IRI-2020) models. During geomagnetically quiet periods, the model yields a forecast bias within ±0.5 MHz. During multiple moderate geomagnetic storm events, the CC values remain around 0.99, demonstrating strong stability and generalization capability. The ICEEMDAN-Informer model maintains good stability across different stations and geomagnetic conditions, providing a useful reference for ionospheric parameter modeling and space weather applications along the IMCP observation chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Advances in Space Research is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.1016/j.asr.2026.07.048
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      – SubjectFull: Shortwave radio
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              Text: Sep2026
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