Predicting Irrigated Rice Soil–Water Conditions Using Multispectral Remote Sensing and Machine Learning in Semi-Arid Australia.

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Title: Predicting Irrigated Rice Soil–Water Conditions Using Multispectral Remote Sensing and Machine Learning in Semi-Arid Australia.
Authors: Tondato, Brenno1 (AUTHOR) b.tondato@deakin.edu.au, Tercete, Gustavo1 (AUTHOR), Maia, Rodrigo Filev1 (AUTHOR), Hornbuckle, John1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Remote Sensing. Aug2026, Vol. 18 Issue 15, p2504. 27p.
Subjects: Multispectral imaging, Machine learning, Irrigation management, Irrigation efficiency, Arid regions, Soil moisture, Rice farming, Vegetation greenness
Geographic Terms: Australia
Abstract: Highlights: What are the main findings? Remote sensing bands A R V I ,   W e t n e s s ,   P S R I ,   P S R I 2 ,   S T R ,   G V M I and V S D I were the most informative of the 156 remote sensing features identified in the literature. However, soil–water condition predictions are mainly driven by vegetation-sensitive indices of A R V I ,  P S R I 2 ,   a n d   G V M I . The "Saturated" and "Dry" soil–water conditions were mostly accurately predicted during the initial and final rice growing stages, with a predominance of "Flooded" predictions during the late vegetative and reproductive stages. What are the implications of the main findings? Selected multi-spectral remote sensing indices represent a set of features that encode information about different soil–water conditions in irrigated rice and can be used in irrigation management applications. The model could be used as a retrospective diagnostic tool at different water levels in the initial and final stages, as well as to support conservative irrigation practices. Further investigation is required to improve predictions during late vegetative and reproductive stages when considering water-saving irrigation practices. Detecting soil–water conditions ranging from dry to fully ponded in rice fields using solely multispectral remote sensing is crucial for irrigation water management practices focused on water savings in Semi-Arid Australia. To this end, this research employed the Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (mRMR) algorithm to identify a set of multispectral remote sensing indices for use with Machine Learning (ML) to predict three soil–water conditions in irrigated rice: "Flooded", "Saturated", and "Dry". Two models were developed: Model 1, using the most frequently used remote sensing indices in the literature; Model 2, including multispectral variables selected by the mRMR algorithm. Model 2 achieved the highest performance, with an accuracy of 0.64 and a k a p p a of 0.46, and ROC-AUC values of 0.87, 0.62, and 0.83 for "Flooded", "Saturated", and "Dry", respectively. All models exhibit high confusion rates between "Flooded" and "Saturated" conditions, suggesting that multispectral remote sensing doesn't provide sufficient information to distinguish these soil–water conditions. The SHAP analysis revealed that vegetation-sensitive indices encoding information on crop biomass, plant moisture, and senescence status were the primary drivers of soil–water condition prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Remote Sensing is the property of MDPI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Predicting Irrigated Rice Soil–Water Conditions Using Multispectral Remote Sensing and Machine Learning in Semi-Arid Australia.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Multispectral+imaging%22">Multispectral imaging</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Machine+learning%22">Machine learning</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Irrigation+management%22">Irrigation management</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Irrigation+efficiency%22">Irrigation efficiency</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Arid+regions%22">Arid regions</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Soil+moisture%22">Soil moisture</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rice+farming%22">Rice farming</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Vegetation+greenness%22">Vegetation greenness</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Australia%22">Australia</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Highlights: What are the main findings? Remote sensing bands A R V I ,   W e t n e s s ,   P S R I ,   P S R I 2 ,   S T R ,   G V M I and V S D I were the most informative of the 156 remote sensing features identified in the literature. However, soil–water condition predictions are mainly driven by vegetation-sensitive indices of A R V I ,  P S R I 2 ,   a n d   G V M I . The "Saturated" and "Dry" soil–water conditions were mostly accurately predicted during the initial and final rice growing stages, with a predominance of "Flooded" predictions during the late vegetative and reproductive stages. What are the implications of the main findings? Selected multi-spectral remote sensing indices represent a set of features that encode information about different soil–water conditions in irrigated rice and can be used in irrigation management applications. The model could be used as a retrospective diagnostic tool at different water levels in the initial and final stages, as well as to support conservative irrigation practices. Further investigation is required to improve predictions during late vegetative and reproductive stages when considering water-saving irrigation practices. Detecting soil–water conditions ranging from dry to fully ponded in rice fields using solely multispectral remote sensing is crucial for irrigation water management practices focused on water savings in Semi-Arid Australia. To this end, this research employed the Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (mRMR) algorithm to identify a set of multispectral remote sensing indices for use with Machine Learning (ML) to predict three soil–water conditions in irrigated rice: "Flooded", "Saturated", and "Dry". Two models were developed: Model 1, using the most frequently used remote sensing indices in the literature; Model 2, including multispectral variables selected by the mRMR algorithm. Model 2 achieved the highest performance, with an accuracy of 0.64 and a k a p p a of 0.46, and ROC-AUC values of 0.87, 0.62, and 0.83 for "Flooded", "Saturated", and "Dry", respectively. All models exhibit high confusion rates between "Flooded" and "Saturated" conditions, suggesting that multispectral remote sensing doesn't provide sufficient information to distinguish these soil–water conditions. The SHAP analysis revealed that vegetation-sensitive indices encoding information on crop biomass, plant moisture, and senescence status were the primary drivers of soil–water condition prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Remote Sensing is the property of MDPI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.3390/rs18152504
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 27
        StartPage: 2504
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Multispectral imaging
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Machine learning
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Irrigation management
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Irrigation efficiency
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Arid regions
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Soil moisture
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Rice farming
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Vegetation greenness
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Australia
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Predicting Irrigated Rice Soil–Water Conditions Using Multispectral Remote Sensing and Machine Learning in Semi-Arid Australia.
        Type: main
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          Name:
            NameFull: Tondato, Brenno
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            NameFull: Tercete, Gustavo
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            NameFull: Maia, Rodrigo Filev
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            NameFull: Hornbuckle, John
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            – D: 01
              M: 08
              Text: Aug2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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            – TitleFull: Remote Sensing
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