Climate-Adaptive Urban Planning: Quantitative Assessment of Drought Impact and Practical Strategies for Climate-Resilient Urban Green Spaces.
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| Title: | Climate-Adaptive Urban Planning: Quantitative Assessment of Drought Impact and Practical Strategies for Climate-Resilient Urban Green Spaces. |
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| Authors: | Chavoshi Borujeni, Sattar1 (AUTHOR) sattar.chavoshiborujeni@student.uts.edu.au, Huete, Alfredo1,2 (AUTHOR), Pradhan, Biswajeet2,3 (AUTHOR), Nouri, Hamideh3,4 (AUTHOR), Abbasi, Neda4,5 (AUTHOR), Nagler, Pamela1,5 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Remote Sensing. Aug2026, Vol. 18 Issue 15, p2531. 33p. |
| Subjects: | Temperature effect, Normalized difference vegetation index, Climate change adaptation, Green infrastructure, Urban plants, Droughts, Drought-tolerant plants |
| Geographic Terms: | Adelaide (S. Aust.), Australia |
| Abstract: | Highlights: What are the main findings? Satellite-derived vegetation indices revealed substantial declines in urban grassland greenness during prolonged drought, with the most pronounced deficits occurring in summer; time-series decomposition and anomaly analyses further demonstrated that these impacts persisted over multiple years, indicating sustained ecological stress rather than short-term climatic fluctuations. Temperature exerted a stronger and more consistent influence on vegetation condition than rainfall, while the focus on grass-dominated urban green spaces enhanced the detection of climate sensitivity; collectively, these findings support the concept of "urban greenery drought," whereby heat stress drives vegetation decline despite the presence of irrigation and rainfall inputs. What are the implications of the main findings? Urban green space management may benefit from considering temperature alongside water availability, as temperature was found to be a stronger driver of NDVI variability than rainfall. Measures such as the use of heat-tolerant and drought-resistant species, adaptive irrigation scheduling, and urban design approaches that reduce heat exposure may contribute to maintaining vegetation condition during periods of combined heat and drought stress. The greater drought sensitivity of shallow-rooted lawn vegetation and the observed incomplete post-drought recovery highlight differences in vegetation responses within urban green spaces. These findings suggest that management approaches tailored to vegetation characteristics, together with water-sensitive urban design, alternative water sources, and long-term green infrastructure planning, may support vegetation function and urban cooling under projected increases in drought frequency and climatic aridity. Urban green spaces (UGSs) are vital for enhancing a city's resilience and livability; however, their functionality is increasingly jeopardized by drought, particularly in water-scarce regions. This study evaluates drought impact on UGSs in Metropolitan Adelaide, Australia, a representative semi-arid urban system, using satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series data spanning 2000–2020. Vegetation dynamics were analyzed through Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess (STL), standardized anomaly assessment, lagged Pearson correlation, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, and Mann–Kendall trend analysis. To isolate climatically sensitive signals, 29 urban lawn patches were examined separately from mixed urban canopy, given their shallow root systems and direct dependence on surface moisture. NDVI declined by approximately 0.09 units during the Millennium Drought (2001–2009), with summer greenness deficits reaching 24% below the 20-year benchmark. Temperature was the dominant driver of lawn NDVI variability (r = −0.863, R2 = 74.5%), substantially exceeding the effect of rainfall (r = 0.156, R2 = 2.4%). El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles modulated vegetation responses, with La Niña years supporting recovery and El Niño years amplifying decline. Post-drought recovery remained incomplete, with NDVI deficits of 8–20% persisting through 2020; full recovery was observed only in 2017, coinciding with the highest recorded summer rainfall. No significant directional trend was detected over the full study period (Mann–Kendall τ = 0.005, p = 0.908). These findings demonstrate that heat, rather than water limitation alone, is the primary driver of vegetation stress in urban systems, highlighting the benefits of integrated management strategies that address both warming and moisture deficits to sustain urban green infrastructure under future climate conditions. We introduce the concept of "urban greenery drought," referring to a form of vegetation stress in managed urban landscapes where greenness is reduced primarily by elevated temperature and atmospheric demand despite water availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: | Engineering Source |
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