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Analysis of the Variation Trends and Driving Forces of Growing-Season kNDVI in Hainan Island over the Past Three Decades.

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Title: Analysis of the Variation Trends and Driving Forces of Growing-Season kNDVI in Hainan Island over the Past Three Decades.
Authors: Li, Guangyang1,2 (AUTHOR), Chen, Zongzhu1,2,3 (AUTHOR), Wu, Tingtian1,2,3 (AUTHOR), Chen, Xiaohua1,3,4 (AUTHOR), Pan, Xiaoyan1 (AUTHOR), Li, Yuanling1,2 (AUTHOR), Chen, Yiqing1,2,3,4 (AUTHOR) yiqingchen@hnaf.ac.cn
Source: Remote Sensing. Aug2026, Vol. 18 Issue 16, p2730. 26p.
Subjects: Normalized difference vegetation index, Vegetation dynamics, Environmental history, Land use, Island ecology, Remote sensing, Restoration ecology
Abstract: Highlights: What are the main findings? Over the past three decades, the growing-season kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) in Hainan Island has demonstrated a significant overall upward trend. This growth exhibits a distinct spatial pattern, characterized by stable ecological recovery in the central mountainous areas and localized vegetation degradation along the coasts. The driving mechanisms of vegetation dynamics are governed by a complex logic of "topographical foundation, human reshaping, and extreme climate triggering." Static topographical factors dictate the baseline spatial patterns, while human activities exert a bidirectional reshaping effect ("inland greening and coastal suppression"), and recent extreme climatic events act as pulse-like short-term stressors. What are the implications of the main findings? The persistent vegetation recovery and high stability in the central mountainous regions validate the success of strict regional ecological protection policies. This confirms that targeted conservation efforts, combined with a superior natural background, effectively establish robust ecological barriers. The bidirectional reshaping effect of human activities highlights the urgent necessity for the Hainan Free Trade Port to implement precise, zoned ecological governance. This requires strict coastal development controls to mitigate urbanization risks, alongside optimized management of inland economic forests to balance ecological and economic benefits. The construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port (FTP) is guided by the core philosophy of "ecological priority and green development." To meet the practical requirements of building a "Green and Beautiful FTP," this study constructed a kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) dataset using Landsat series satellite imagery. By integrating methods including the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test, Hurst exponent, and coefficient of variation (CV), an in-depth analysis was conducted on the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and trends of growing-season vegetation in Hainan Island from 1994 to 2023. Additionally, the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) interpretation method were employed to quantitatively unravel the driving mechanisms of climatic factors and human activities on kNDVI variations. The results indicate that: (1) Over the past three decades, the overall kNDVI of Hainan Island has exhibited a significant upward trend, characterized spatially by an evolution pattern of "stable recovery in the central region and localized degradation along the coast." (2) The vegetation evolution demonstrates strong persistence and is highly consistent with community stability. The high stability in the central mountainous areas stems from a superior natural background and strict ecological protection; the transition zone is jointly influenced by vegetation types and anthropogenic management; meanwhile the coastal areas exhibit significant degradation characteristics driven by high-intensity human disturbances. (3) The analysis of driving mechanisms reveals a complex control logic of "topographical foundation—human reshaping—extreme climate triggering." Static topographical factors, such as elevation and slope, occupy an absolute dominant position; human activities, represented by rubber plantation expansion and urbanization, exert a bidirectional reshaping effect characterized by "inland greening and coastal suppression"; furthermore, extreme drought and high temperatures in the later stages of the study demonstrated a significant pulse-like impact, exacerbating the risks of short-term climatic stress. This study clarifies the core patterns of vegetation evolution in Hainan Island, validates the effectiveness of ecological policies, and provides a quantitative scientific basis for ecological conservation and sustainable development in tropical island regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Remote Sensing is the property of MDPI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Analysis of the Variation Trends and Driving Forces of Growing-Season kNDVI in Hainan Island over the Past Three Decades.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Remote+Sensing%22">Remote Sensing</searchLink>. Aug2026, Vol. 18 Issue 16, p2730. 26p.
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  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Highlights: What are the main findings? Over the past three decades, the growing-season kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) in Hainan Island has demonstrated a significant overall upward trend. This growth exhibits a distinct spatial pattern, characterized by stable ecological recovery in the central mountainous areas and localized vegetation degradation along the coasts. The driving mechanisms of vegetation dynamics are governed by a complex logic of "topographical foundation, human reshaping, and extreme climate triggering." Static topographical factors dictate the baseline spatial patterns, while human activities exert a bidirectional reshaping effect ("inland greening and coastal suppression"), and recent extreme climatic events act as pulse-like short-term stressors. What are the implications of the main findings? The persistent vegetation recovery and high stability in the central mountainous regions validate the success of strict regional ecological protection policies. This confirms that targeted conservation efforts, combined with a superior natural background, effectively establish robust ecological barriers. The bidirectional reshaping effect of human activities highlights the urgent necessity for the Hainan Free Trade Port to implement precise, zoned ecological governance. This requires strict coastal development controls to mitigate urbanization risks, alongside optimized management of inland economic forests to balance ecological and economic benefits. The construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port (FTP) is guided by the core philosophy of "ecological priority and green development." To meet the practical requirements of building a "Green and Beautiful FTP," this study constructed a kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) dataset using Landsat series satellite imagery. By integrating methods including the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test, Hurst exponent, and coefficient of variation (CV), an in-depth analysis was conducted on the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and trends of growing-season vegetation in Hainan Island from 1994 to 2023. Additionally, the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) interpretation method were employed to quantitatively unravel the driving mechanisms of climatic factors and human activities on kNDVI variations. The results indicate that: (1) Over the past three decades, the overall kNDVI of Hainan Island has exhibited a significant upward trend, characterized spatially by an evolution pattern of "stable recovery in the central region and localized degradation along the coast." (2) The vegetation evolution demonstrates strong persistence and is highly consistent with community stability. The high stability in the central mountainous areas stems from a superior natural background and strict ecological protection; the transition zone is jointly influenced by vegetation types and anthropogenic management; meanwhile the coastal areas exhibit significant degradation characteristics driven by high-intensity human disturbances. (3) The analysis of driving mechanisms reveals a complex control logic of "topographical foundation—human reshaping—extreme climate triggering." Static topographical factors, such as elevation and slope, occupy an absolute dominant position; human activities, represented by rubber plantation expansion and urbanization, exert a bidirectional reshaping effect characterized by "inland greening and coastal suppression"; furthermore, extreme drought and high temperatures in the later stages of the study demonstrated a significant pulse-like impact, exacerbating the risks of short-term climatic stress. This study clarifies the core patterns of vegetation evolution in Hainan Island, validates the effectiveness of ecological policies, and provides a quantitative scientific basis for ecological conservation and sustainable development in tropical island regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Remote Sensing is the property of MDPI and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.3390/rs18162730
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 26
        StartPage: 2730
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      – SubjectFull: Normalized difference vegetation index
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Vegetation dynamics
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      – SubjectFull: Environmental history
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Land use
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      – TitleFull: Analysis of the Variation Trends and Driving Forces of Growing-Season kNDVI in Hainan Island over the Past Three Decades.
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