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Evaluating climate change induced water stress: A case study of the Lower Cape Fear basin, NC.

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Title: Evaluating climate change induced water stress: A case study of the Lower Cape Fear basin, NC.
Authors: Griffin, Michael T.1 griffinmi09@ecu.edu, Montz, Burrell E.1 montzb@ecu.edu, Arrigo, Jennifer S.2 jarrigo@cuahsi.org
Source: Applied Geography. Jun2013, Vol. 40, p115-128. 14p.
Subjects: Climate change, Physiological stress, Fresh water, Water shortages, Effect of human beings on climate change, Water supply, Hydrology
Geographic Terms: Fear, Cape (N.C.)
Abstract: Abstract: With the possibility of future fresh water shortages increasing, a methodology that incorporates climatic and anthropogenic factors is needed. This research estimates future water availability in the Lower Cape Fear basin using changes in climate, land use, and population growth. The USGS Thornthwaite monthly water balance model is used with estimates of climate change and land use change parameters to assess future water resources based on predicted monthly fluxes of the water balance. The southern United States is a rapidly growing region. Trends present in the population data are used to produce future estimates of population for the basin. Precipitation and temperature estimates based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions and current climatology are inputs to the model. Projected increases in impervious surface cover due to population growth and urbanization are incorporated through the model runoff factor. Water stress indicators are used to categorize the sub-watersheds as water rich, water stressed, or water scarce. Scenarios incorporating regional predictions of climate change indicate a decrease in summer soil moisture minima and increases in summer water deficits. Ensemble runs indicate a shift toward water stress in the Lower Cape Fear River basin, due to a warming climate as well as increased demand. While climate change has a significant impact on water resources, population growth was found to have the most substantial impact. The methods and findings have application to water managers at local and regional levels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
Copyright of Applied Geography is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
FullText Text:
  Availability: 0
Header DbId: egs
DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 89217087
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
PreciseRelevancyScore: 0
IllustrationInfo
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  Label: Title
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  Data: Evaluating climate change induced water stress: A case study of the Lower Cape Fear basin, NC.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Griffin%2C+Michael+T%2E%22">Griffin, Michael T.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> griffinmi09@ecu.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Montz%2C+Burrell+E%2E%22">Montz, Burrell E.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> montzb@ecu.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Arrigo%2C+Jennifer+S%2E%22">Arrigo, Jennifer S.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo><i> jarrigo@cuahsi.org</i>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Applied+Geography%22">Applied Geography</searchLink>. Jun2013, Vol. 40, p115-128. 14p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Physiological+stress%22">Physiological stress</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Fresh+water%22">Fresh water</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Water+shortages%22">Water shortages</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Effect+of+human+beings+on+climate+change%22">Effect of human beings on climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Water+supply%22">Water supply</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Hydrology%22">Hydrology</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Fear%2C+Cape+%28N%2EC%2E%29%22">Fear, Cape (N.C.)</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Abstract: With the possibility of future fresh water shortages increasing, a methodology that incorporates climatic and anthropogenic factors is needed. This research estimates future water availability in the Lower Cape Fear basin using changes in climate, land use, and population growth. The USGS Thornthwaite monthly water balance model is used with estimates of climate change and land use change parameters to assess future water resources based on predicted monthly fluxes of the water balance. The southern United States is a rapidly growing region. Trends present in the population data are used to produce future estimates of population for the basin. Precipitation and temperature estimates based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions and current climatology are inputs to the model. Projected increases in impervious surface cover due to population growth and urbanization are incorporated through the model runoff factor. Water stress indicators are used to categorize the sub-watersheds as water rich, water stressed, or water scarce. Scenarios incorporating regional predictions of climate change indicate a decrease in summer soil moisture minima and increases in summer water deficits. Ensemble runs indicate a shift toward water stress in the Lower Cape Fear River basin, due to a warming climate as well as increased demand. While climate change has a significant impact on water resources, population growth was found to have the most substantial impact. The methods and findings have application to water managers at local and regional levels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Applied Geography is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=egs&AN=89217087
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        Value: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.02.009
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 14
        StartPage: 115
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Physiological stress
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Fresh water
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Water shortages
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Effect of human beings on climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Water supply
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Hydrology
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Fear, Cape (N.C.)
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Evaluating climate change induced water stress: A case study of the Lower Cape Fear basin, NC.
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            NameFull: Griffin, Michael T.
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            NameFull: Montz, Burrell E.
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            NameFull: Arrigo, Jennifer S.
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            – D: 01
              M: 06
              Text: Jun2013
              Type: published
              Y: 2013
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