ASEAN-4 -China FDI and Vertical Intra-Industry Trade Links Amid the US-China Trade War—A Spatial Panel Analysis.
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| Title: | ASEAN-4 -China FDI and Vertical Intra-Industry Trade Links Amid the US-China Trade War—A Spatial Panel Analysis. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Chin, Mui Yin1 (AUTHOR) chinmy@tarc.edu.my, Ong, Sheue Li2 (AUTHOR), Foo, Lee Peng1 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | SAGE Open. Jan-Mar2026, Vol. 16 Issue 1, p1-14. 14p. |
| Subject Terms: | Supply chains, Foreign investments, Southeast Asians, Panel analysis, International economic integration, China-United States relations |
| Geographic Terms: | China |
| Company/Entity: | ASEAN |
| Abstract: | The global trade landscape has been reshaped by complex production networks, leading to the international fragmentation of manufacturing, where countries specialize in different production stages and rely heavily on foreign inputs. This fragmentation makes economic shocks capable of rippling across regions. As a leading player in regional production networks, China has accelerated this process, particularly through trade with ASEAN countries. However, the US-China trade war has disrupted these networks, creating economic uncertainties. This study goes beyond country-level analysis to examine how the trade war and the relocation of Chinese FDI to ASEAN-4 affect vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT) between ASEAN-4 and the US, employing spatial econometric techniques to address a gap in the literature. The findings indicate that Chinese FDI significantly boosts VIIT, suggesting that relocating FDI to ASEAN-4 can help mitigate the trade war's impact on China. Moreover, there is a positive and significant spatial VIIT, implying that trade expansion in one ASEAN-4 member country generates spillover effects across the region, underscoring the importance of resilient and diversified supply chains. However, the negative impacts of spatial FDI and GDP reveal ongoing competition within ASEAN-4, indicating that China and ASEAN-4 should carefully strategize to avoid adverse spillovers and promote deeper regional integration. Accordingly, ASEAN policymakers, particularly guiding initiatives like the ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint 2025, should revise strategies to ensure comprehensive integration among member countries rather than fostering competition, supporting mutual benefits from shared participation in regional supply chains. JEL Classification Codes: C21, F14. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of SAGE Open is the property of Sage Publications Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Education Research Complete |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: ASEAN-4 -China FDI and Vertical Intra-Industry Trade Links Amid the US-China Trade War—A Spatial Panel Analysis. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Chin%2C+Mui+Yin%22">Chin, Mui Yin</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> chinmy@tarc.edu.my</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ong%2C+Sheue+Li%22">Ong, Sheue Li</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Foo%2C+Lee+Peng%22">Foo, Lee Peng</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22SAGE+Open%22">SAGE Open</searchLink>. Jan-Mar2026, Vol. 16 Issue 1, p1-14. 14p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Supply+chains%22">Supply chains</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Foreign+investments%22">Foreign investments</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Southeast+Asians%22">Southeast Asians</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Panel+analysis%22">Panel analysis</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22International+economic+integration%22">International economic integration</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22China-United+States+relations%22">China-United States relations</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22China%22">China</searchLink> – Name: SubjectCompany Label: Company/Entity Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22ASEAN%22">ASEAN</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: The global trade landscape has been reshaped by complex production networks, leading to the international fragmentation of manufacturing, where countries specialize in different production stages and rely heavily on foreign inputs. This fragmentation makes economic shocks capable of rippling across regions. As a leading player in regional production networks, China has accelerated this process, particularly through trade with ASEAN countries. However, the US-China trade war has disrupted these networks, creating economic uncertainties. This study goes beyond country-level analysis to examine how the trade war and the relocation of Chinese FDI to ASEAN-4 affect vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT) between ASEAN-4 and the US, employing spatial econometric techniques to address a gap in the literature. The findings indicate that Chinese FDI significantly boosts VIIT, suggesting that relocating FDI to ASEAN-4 can help mitigate the trade war's impact on China. Moreover, there is a positive and significant spatial VIIT, implying that trade expansion in one ASEAN-4 member country generates spillover effects across the region, underscoring the importance of resilient and diversified supply chains. However, the negative impacts of spatial FDI and GDP reveal ongoing competition within ASEAN-4, indicating that China and ASEAN-4 should carefully strategize to avoid adverse spillovers and promote deeper regional integration. Accordingly, ASEAN policymakers, particularly guiding initiatives like the ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint 2025, should revise strategies to ensure comprehensive integration among member countries rather than fostering competition, supporting mutual benefits from shared participation in regional supply chains. JEL Classification Codes: C21, F14. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of SAGE Open is the property of Sage Publications Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1177/21582440251410197 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 14 StartPage: 1 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Supply chains Type: general – SubjectFull: Foreign investments Type: general – SubjectFull: Southeast Asians Type: general – SubjectFull: Panel analysis Type: general – SubjectFull: International economic integration Type: general – SubjectFull: China-United States relations Type: general – SubjectFull: China Type: general – SubjectFull: ASEAN Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: ASEAN-4 -China FDI and Vertical Intra-Industry Trade Links Amid the US-China Trade War—A Spatial Panel Analysis. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Chin, Mui Yin – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Ong, Sheue Li – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Foo, Lee Peng IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 01 Text: Jan-Mar2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 21582440 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 16 – Type: issue Value: 1 Titles: – TitleFull: SAGE Open Type: main |
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