Potential Climate Change Risks to Meeting Zimbabwe's NDC Goals and How to Become Resilient.
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| Title: | Potential Climate Change Risks to Meeting Zimbabwe's NDC Goals and How to Become Resilient. |
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| Authors: | Howells, Mark1,2 (AUTHOR) M.I.Howells@lboro.ac.uk, Boehlert, Brent3,4 (AUTHOR) BBoehlert@indecon.com, Benitez, Pablo César5 (AUTHOR) pbenitez@worldbank.org |
| Source: | Energies (19961073). Sep2021, Vol. 14 Issue 18, p5827-5827. 1p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Climate change, *Renewable natural resources, *Energy industries, *Energy consumption, *Renewable energy sources, *Greenhouse gas mitigation |
| Geographic Terms: | Zimbabwe |
| Abstract: | Almost all countries have committed to develop Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to reduce GHG emissions. They determine the level of GHG mitigation that, as a nation, they will commit to reducing. Zimbabwe has ambitious and laudable GHG mitigation targets. Compared to a coal-based future, emissions will be reduced by 33% per capita by 2030. If historical climate conditions continue, it can do this at low or negative cost if suitable sources of climate financing are in place. The NDC plots a positive future. However, much of Zimbabwe's NDC mitigation center on hydropower generation and other measures that are dangerously vulnerable to climate change. Should the climate change in accordance with recent projections, these investments will be at risk, severely constraining electricity supply and causing high degrees of economic damage. This paper uses the Open-Source energy Modelling SYStem (OSeMOSYS) to consider two adaptation pathways that address this vulnerability. In the first, the country turns to a historically accessible option, namely the deployment of coal. In so doing, the electrical system is made more resilient, but emissions ramp up. The second pathway 'climate proofs' the power sector by boosting solar and wind capacity, using hydropower to provide balance for these new renewable resources, and introducing significant energy efficiency measures. This second pathway would require a set of extra accompanying investments and changes to the power market rules, but allows for both system resilience and NDC targets to be met. The paper shows that Zimbabwe's low emissions growth can be made resilient, and while this path promises strong benefits, it also requires strong commitment and political will. From this paper insights are drawn and requirements for future analysis are made. Two critical insights are that: (i) NDCs that focus on mitigation should include resilience in their design. If they do not, they can introduce deep vulnerability; (ii) a departure from historical electricity market structures appears to hold potential for strong environmental, cost and reliability gains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Database: | Energy & Power Source |
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| Header | DbId: enr DbLabel: Energy & Power Source An: 152656993 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Potential Climate Change Risks to Meeting Zimbabwe's NDC Goals and How to Become Resilient. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Howells%2C+Mark%22">Howells, Mark</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> M.I.Howells@lboro.ac.uk</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Boehlert%2C+Brent%22">Boehlert, Brent</searchLink><relatesTo>3,4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> BBoehlert@indecon.com</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Benitez%2C+Pablo+César%22">Benitez, Pablo César</searchLink><relatesTo>5</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> pbenitez@worldbank.org</i> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Energies+%2819961073%29%22">Energies (19961073)</searchLink>. Sep2021, Vol. 14 Issue 18, p5827-5827. 1p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Renewable+natural+resources%22">Renewable natural resources</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Energy+industries%22">Energy industries</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Energy+consumption%22">Energy consumption</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Renewable+energy+sources%22">Renewable energy sources</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Greenhouse+gas+mitigation%22">Greenhouse gas mitigation</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Zimbabwe%22">Zimbabwe</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Almost all countries have committed to develop Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to reduce GHG emissions. They determine the level of GHG mitigation that, as a nation, they will commit to reducing. Zimbabwe has ambitious and laudable GHG mitigation targets. Compared to a coal-based future, emissions will be reduced by 33% per capita by 2030. If historical climate conditions continue, it can do this at low or negative cost if suitable sources of climate financing are in place. The NDC plots a positive future. However, much of Zimbabwe's NDC mitigation center on hydropower generation and other measures that are dangerously vulnerable to climate change. Should the climate change in accordance with recent projections, these investments will be at risk, severely constraining electricity supply and causing high degrees of economic damage. This paper uses the Open-Source energy Modelling SYStem (OSeMOSYS) to consider two adaptation pathways that address this vulnerability. In the first, the country turns to a historically accessible option, namely the deployment of coal. In so doing, the electrical system is made more resilient, but emissions ramp up. The second pathway 'climate proofs' the power sector by boosting solar and wind capacity, using hydropower to provide balance for these new renewable resources, and introducing significant energy efficiency measures. This second pathway would require a set of extra accompanying investments and changes to the power market rules, but allows for both system resilience and NDC targets to be met. The paper shows that Zimbabwe's low emissions growth can be made resilient, and while this path promises strong benefits, it also requires strong commitment and political will. From this paper insights are drawn and requirements for future analysis are made. Two critical insights are that: (i) NDCs that focus on mitigation should include resilience in their design. If they do not, they can introduce deep vulnerability; (ii) a departure from historical electricity market structures appears to hold potential for strong environmental, cost and reliability gains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.3390/en14185827 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 1 StartPage: 5827 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Climate change Type: general – SubjectFull: Renewable natural resources Type: general – SubjectFull: Energy industries Type: general – SubjectFull: Energy consumption Type: general – SubjectFull: Renewable energy sources Type: general – SubjectFull: Greenhouse gas mitigation Type: general – SubjectFull: Zimbabwe Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Potential Climate Change Risks to Meeting Zimbabwe's NDC Goals and How to Become Resilient. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Howells, Mark – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Boehlert, Brent – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Benitez, Pablo César IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 15 M: 09 Text: Sep2021 Type: published Y: 2021 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 19961073 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 14 – Type: issue Value: 18 Titles: – TitleFull: Energies (19961073) Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
