Short-Term Polar Motion Forecast Based on the Holt-Winters Algorithm and Angular Momenta of Global Surficial Geophysical Fluids.
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| Title: | Short-Term Polar Motion Forecast Based on the Holt-Winters Algorithm and Angular Momenta of Global Surficial Geophysical Fluids. |
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| Authors: | Luo, Jiesi1 (AUTHOR), Chen, Wei1 (AUTHOR) wchen@sgg.whu.edu.cn, Ray, Jim2 (AUTHOR), Li, Jiancheng1 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Surveys in Geophysics. Dec2022, Vol. 43 Issue 6, p1929-1945. 17p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Angular momentum (Mechanics), *Seawater, *Forecasting, *Long-range weather forecasting, *Algorithms, *Rotation of the earth, *Fluids |
| Abstract: | By taking into account the variable free polar motion (PM) known as the Chandler wobble (CW) and irregular forced PM excited by quasi-periodic changes in atmosphere, oceans and land water (described by the data of effective angular momenta EAM), we propose a short-term PM forecast method based on the Holt-Winters (HW) additive algorithm (termed as the HW-VCW method, with VCW denoting variable CW). In this method, the variable CW period is determined by minimizing the differences between PM observations and EAM-derived PM for every 8-year sliding timespan. Compared to the X- and Y-pole forecast errors (ΔPMX and ΔPMY) of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) Bulletin A, our results derived from operational EAM can reduce ΔPMX by up to 38.4% and ΔPMY by up to 34.3% for forecasts ranging from 1 to 30 days. Further, we prove that using EAM forecast instead of operational EAM in the HW-VCW method can achieve similar accuracies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Database: | Energy & Power Source |
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| Header | DbId: enr DbLabel: Energy & Power Source An: 159794043 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Short-Term Polar Motion Forecast Based on the Holt-Winters Algorithm and Angular Momenta of Global Surficial Geophysical Fluids. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Luo%2C+Jiesi%22">Luo, Jiesi</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Chen%2C+Wei%22">Chen, Wei</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> wchen@sgg.whu.edu.cn</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ray%2C+Jim%22">Ray, Jim</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Li%2C+Jiancheng%22">Li, Jiancheng</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Surveys+in+Geophysics%22">Surveys in Geophysics</searchLink>. Dec2022, Vol. 43 Issue 6, p1929-1945. 17p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Angular+momentum+%28Mechanics%29%22">Angular momentum (Mechanics)</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Seawater%22">Seawater</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Forecasting%22">Forecasting</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Long-range+weather+forecasting%22">Long-range weather forecasting</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Algorithms%22">Algorithms</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rotation+of+the+earth%22">Rotation of the earth</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Fluids%22">Fluids</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: By taking into account the variable free polar motion (PM) known as the Chandler wobble (CW) and irregular forced PM excited by quasi-periodic changes in atmosphere, oceans and land water (described by the data of effective angular momenta EAM), we propose a short-term PM forecast method based on the Holt-Winters (HW) additive algorithm (termed as the HW-VCW method, with VCW denoting variable CW). In this method, the variable CW period is determined by minimizing the differences between PM observations and EAM-derived PM for every 8-year sliding timespan. Compared to the X- and Y-pole forecast errors (ΔPMX and ΔPMY) of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) Bulletin A, our results derived from operational EAM can reduce ΔPMX by up to 38.4% and ΔPMY by up to 34.3% for forecasts ranging from 1 to 30 days. Further, we prove that using EAM forecast instead of operational EAM in the HW-VCW method can achieve similar accuracies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| PLink | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=enr&AN=159794043 |
| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1007/s10712-022-09733-0 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 17 StartPage: 1929 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Angular momentum (Mechanics) Type: general – SubjectFull: Seawater Type: general – SubjectFull: Forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Long-range weather forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Algorithms Type: general – SubjectFull: Rotation of the earth Type: general – SubjectFull: Fluids Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Short-Term Polar Motion Forecast Based on the Holt-Winters Algorithm and Angular Momenta of Global Surficial Geophysical Fluids. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Luo, Jiesi – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Chen, Wei – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Ray, Jim – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Li, Jiancheng IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 12 Text: Dec2022 Type: published Y: 2022 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 01693298 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 43 – Type: issue Value: 6 Titles: – TitleFull: Surveys in Geophysics Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
