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Changes in the temperature-mortality relationship in France: Limited evidence of adaptation to a new climate.

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Title: Changes in the temperature-mortality relationship in France: Limited evidence of adaptation to a new climate.
Authors: Pascal, Mathilde1 (AUTHOR) Mathilde.Pascal@santepubliquefrance.fr, Wagner, Vérène1 (AUTHOR), Corso, Magali1 (AUTHOR)
Source: International Journal of Biometeorology. Apr2023, Vol. 67 Issue 4, p725-734. 10p.
Subject Terms: *Climate change & health, *Temperature distribution, *Climate change, *Confidence intervals, *Percentiles
Geographic Terms: France
Abstract: Context: Documenting trends in the health impacts of ambient temperature is key to supporting adaptation strategies to climate change. This paper explores changes in the temperature-related mortality in 18 French urban centers between 1970 and 2015. Method: A multicentric time-series design with time-varying distributed lag nonlinear models was adopted to model the shape of the relationship and assess temporal changes in risks and impacts. Results: The general shape of the temperature-mortality relationship did not change over time, except for an increasing risk at very low percentiles and a decreasing risk at very high percentiles. The relative risk at the 99.9th percentile compared to the 50th percentile of the 1970–2015 temperature distribution decreased from 2.33 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.95:2.79] in 1975 to 1.33 [95% CI: 1.14:1.55] in 2015. Between 1970 and 2015, 302,456 [95% CI: 292,723:311,392] deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperatures, corresponding to 5.5% [95% CI: 5.3:5.6] of total mortality. This burden decreased progressively, representing 7.2% [95% CI: 6.7:7.7] of total mortality in the 1970s to 3.4% [95% CI: 3.2:3.6] in the 2000s. However, the contribution of hot temperatures to this burden (higher than the 90th percentile) increased. Discussion: Despite the decreasing relative risk, the fraction of mortality attributable to extreme heat increased between 1970 and 2015, thus highlighting the need for proactive adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Database: Energy & Power Source
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DbLabel: Energy & Power Source
An: 162871050
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  Data: Changes in the temperature-mortality relationship in France: Limited evidence of adaptation to a new climate.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Pascal%2C+Mathilde%22">Pascal, Mathilde</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> Mathilde.Pascal@santepubliquefrance.fr</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wagner%2C+Vérène%22">Wagner, Vérène</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Corso%2C+Magali%22">Corso, Magali</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22International+Journal+of+Biometeorology%22">International Journal of Biometeorology</searchLink>. Apr2023, Vol. 67 Issue 4, p725-734. 10p.
– Name: Subject
  Label: Subject Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change+%26+health%22">Climate change & health</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Temperature+distribution%22">Temperature distribution</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Confidence+intervals%22">Confidence intervals</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Percentiles%22">Percentiles</searchLink>
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  Label: Geographic Terms
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22France%22">France</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Context: Documenting trends in the health impacts of ambient temperature is key to supporting adaptation strategies to climate change. This paper explores changes in the temperature-related mortality in 18 French urban centers between 1970 and 2015. Method: A multicentric time-series design with time-varying distributed lag nonlinear models was adopted to model the shape of the relationship and assess temporal changes in risks and impacts. Results: The general shape of the temperature-mortality relationship did not change over time, except for an increasing risk at very low percentiles and a decreasing risk at very high percentiles. The relative risk at the 99.9th percentile compared to the 50th percentile of the 1970–2015 temperature distribution decreased from 2.33 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.95:2.79] in 1975 to 1.33 [95% CI: 1.14:1.55] in 2015. Between 1970 and 2015, 302,456 [95% CI: 292,723:311,392] deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperatures, corresponding to 5.5% [95% CI: 5.3:5.6] of total mortality. This burden decreased progressively, representing 7.2% [95% CI: 6.7:7.7] of total mortality in the 1970s to 3.4% [95% CI: 3.2:3.6] in the 2000s. However, the contribution of hot temperatures to this burden (higher than the 90th percentile) increased. Discussion: Despite the decreasing relative risk, the fraction of mortality attributable to extreme heat increased between 1970 and 2015, thus highlighting the need for proactive adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=enr&AN=162871050
RecordInfo BibRecord:
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    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1007/s00484-023-02451-1
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 10
        StartPage: 725
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Climate change & health
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Temperature distribution
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Confidence intervals
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Percentiles
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: France
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Changes in the temperature-mortality relationship in France: Limited evidence of adaptation to a new climate.
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            NameFull: Pascal, Mathilde
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          Name:
            NameFull: Wagner, Vérène
      – PersonEntity:
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            NameFull: Corso, Magali
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          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 04
              Text: Apr2023
              Type: published
              Y: 2023
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              Value: 67
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              Value: 4
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            – TitleFull: International Journal of Biometeorology
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