The forecasting efficiency under different selected regions by Pattern Informatics Method and seismic potential estimation in the North-South Seismic Zone.
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| Title: | The forecasting efficiency under different selected regions by Pattern Informatics Method and seismic potential estimation in the North-South Seismic Zone. |
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| Authors: | Weixi Tian1 tianweixi20@mails.ucas.ac.cn, Yongxian Zhang2 yxzhseis@sina.com |
| Source: | Earthquake Science. Aug2024, Vol. 37 Issue 4, p368-382. 15p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Earthquake magnitude, *Earthquake prediction, *Earthquake zones, *Earthquake hazard analysis, *Receiver operating characteristic curves, *Spatiotemporal processes, *Earthquakes, *Forecasting |
| Geographic Terms: | Turkey, Indonesia |
| Abstract: | In 2022, four earthquakes with MS ≥6.0 including the Menyuan MS 6.9 and Luding MS 6.8 earthquakes occurred in the NorthSouth Seismic Zone (NSSZ), which demonstrated high and strong seismicity. Pattern Informatics (PI) method, as an effective long and medium term earthquake forecasting method, has been applied to the strong earthquake forecasting in Chinese mainland and results have shown the positive performance. The earthquake catalog with magnitude above MS 3.0 since 1970 provided by China Earthquake Networks Center was employed in this study and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) method was applied to test the forecasting efficiency of the PI method in each selected region related to the North-South Seismic Zone systematically. Based on this, we selected the area with the best ROC testing result and analyzed the evolution process of the PI hotspot map reflecting the small seismic activity pattern prior to the Menyuan MS 6.9 and Luding MS 6.8 earthquakes. A “forward” forecast for the area was carried out to assess seismic risk. The study shows the following. 1) PI forecasting has higher forecasting efficiency in the selected study region where the difference of seismicity in any place of the region is smaller. 2) In areas with smaller differences of seismicity, the activity pattern of small earthquakes prior to the Menyuan MS 6.9 and Luding MS 6.8 earthquakes can be obtained by analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution process of the PI hotspot map. 3) The hotspot evolution in and around the southern Tazang fault in the study area is similar to that prior to the strong earthquakes, which suggests the possible seismic hazard in the future. This study could provide some ideas to the seismic hazard assessment in other regions with high seismicity, such as Japan, California, Turkey, and Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Database: | Energy & Power Source |
| FullText | Links: – Type: pdflink Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: enr DbLabel: Energy & Power Source An: 178448896 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: The forecasting efficiency under different selected regions by Pattern Informatics Method and seismic potential estimation in the North-South Seismic Zone. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Weixi+Tian%22">Weixi Tian</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> tianweixi20@mails.ucas.ac.cn</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Yongxian+Zhang%22">Yongxian Zhang</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo><i> yxzhseis@sina.com</i> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Earthquake+Science%22">Earthquake Science</searchLink>. Aug2024, Vol. 37 Issue 4, p368-382. 15p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Earthquake+magnitude%22">Earthquake magnitude</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Earthquake+prediction%22">Earthquake prediction</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Earthquake+zones%22">Earthquake zones</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Earthquake+hazard+analysis%22">Earthquake hazard analysis</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Receiver+operating+characteristic+curves%22">Receiver operating characteristic curves</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Spatiotemporal+processes%22">Spatiotemporal processes</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Earthquakes%22">Earthquakes</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Forecasting%22">Forecasting</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Turkey%22">Turkey</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Indonesia%22">Indonesia</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: In 2022, four earthquakes with MS ≥6.0 including the Menyuan MS 6.9 and Luding MS 6.8 earthquakes occurred in the NorthSouth Seismic Zone (NSSZ), which demonstrated high and strong seismicity. Pattern Informatics (PI) method, as an effective long and medium term earthquake forecasting method, has been applied to the strong earthquake forecasting in Chinese mainland and results have shown the positive performance. The earthquake catalog with magnitude above MS 3.0 since 1970 provided by China Earthquake Networks Center was employed in this study and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) method was applied to test the forecasting efficiency of the PI method in each selected region related to the North-South Seismic Zone systematically. Based on this, we selected the area with the best ROC testing result and analyzed the evolution process of the PI hotspot map reflecting the small seismic activity pattern prior to the Menyuan MS 6.9 and Luding MS 6.8 earthquakes. A “forward” forecast for the area was carried out to assess seismic risk. The study shows the following. 1) PI forecasting has higher forecasting efficiency in the selected study region where the difference of seismicity in any place of the region is smaller. 2) In areas with smaller differences of seismicity, the activity pattern of small earthquakes prior to the Menyuan MS 6.9 and Luding MS 6.8 earthquakes can be obtained by analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution process of the PI hotspot map. 3) The hotspot evolution in and around the southern Tazang fault in the study area is similar to that prior to the strong earthquakes, which suggests the possible seismic hazard in the future. This study could provide some ideas to the seismic hazard assessment in other regions with high seismicity, such as Japan, California, Turkey, and Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1016/j.eqs.2024.04.006 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 15 StartPage: 368 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Earthquake magnitude Type: general – SubjectFull: Earthquake prediction Type: general – SubjectFull: Earthquake zones Type: general – SubjectFull: Earthquake hazard analysis Type: general – SubjectFull: Receiver operating characteristic curves Type: general – SubjectFull: Spatiotemporal processes Type: general – SubjectFull: Earthquakes Type: general – SubjectFull: Forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Turkey Type: general – SubjectFull: Indonesia Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: The forecasting efficiency under different selected regions by Pattern Informatics Method and seismic potential estimation in the North-South Seismic Zone. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Weixi Tian – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Yongxian Zhang IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 08 Text: Aug2024 Type: published Y: 2024 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 16744519 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 37 – Type: issue Value: 4 Titles: – TitleFull: Earthquake Science Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
