View in EDS HTML Full Text PDF Full Text

Forecasting the evolution of the 2021 Tajogaite eruption, La Palma, with TROPOMI/PlumeTraj-derived SO2 emission rates.

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Title: Forecasting the evolution of the 2021 Tajogaite eruption, La Palma, with TROPOMI/PlumeTraj-derived SO2 emission rates.
Authors: Esse, B.1 (AUTHOR) benjamin.esse@manchester.ac.uk, Burton, M.1,2 (AUTHOR), Hayer, C.3 (AUTHOR), La Spina, G.2 (AUTHOR), Pardo Cofrades, A.1 (AUTHOR), Asensio-Ramos, M.4 (AUTHOR), Barrancos, J.4,5,6 (AUTHOR), Pérez, N.4,5 (AUTHOR)
Source: Bulletin of Volcanology. Mar2025, Vol. 87 Issue 3, p1-14. 14p.
Subject Terms: *Volcanic activity prediction, *Risk managers, *Earth sciences, *Volcanic eruptions, *Sulfur dioxide
Abstract: As global populations grow, the exposure of communities and infrastructure to volcanic hazards increases every year. Once a volcanic eruption begins, it becomes critical for risk managers to understand the likely evolution and duration of the activity to assess its impact on populations and infrastructure. Here, we report an exponential decay in satellite-derived SO2 emission rates during the 2021 eruption of Tajogaite, La Palma, Canary Islands, and show that this pattern allows a reliable and consistent forecast of the evolution of the SO2 emissions after the first third of the total eruption duration. The eruption ended when fluxes dropped to less than 6% of their fitted maximum value, providing a useful benchmark to compare with other eruptions. Using a 1-D numerical magma ascent model, we suggest that the exponentially decreasing SO2 emission trend was primarily produced by reducing magma chamber pressure as the eruption emptied the feeding reservoir. This work highlights the key role that satellite-derived SO2 emission data can play in forecasting the evolution of volcanic eruptions and how the use of magma ascent models can inform the driving mechanisms controlling the evolution of the eruption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Database: Energy & Power Source
Full text is not displayed to guests.
FullText Links:
  – Type: pdflink
Text:
  Availability: 1
Header DbId: enr
DbLabel: Energy & Power Source
An: 183974256
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
PreciseRelevancyScore: 0
IllustrationInfo
Items – Name: Title
  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: Forecasting the evolution of the 2021 Tajogaite eruption, La Palma, with TROPOMI/PlumeTraj-derived SO<subscript>2</subscript> emission rates.
– Name: Author
  Label: Authors
  Group: Au
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Esse%2C+B%2E%22">Esse, B.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> benjamin.esse@manchester.ac.uk</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Burton%2C+M%2E%22">Burton, M.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hayer%2C+C%2E%22">Hayer, C.</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22La+Spina%2C+G%2E%22">La Spina, G.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Pardo+Cofrades%2C+A%2E%22">Pardo Cofrades, A.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Asensio-Ramos%2C+M%2E%22">Asensio-Ramos, M.</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Barrancos%2C+J%2E%22">Barrancos, J.</searchLink><relatesTo>4,5,6</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Pérez%2C+N%2E%22">Pérez, N.</searchLink><relatesTo>4,5</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
– Name: TitleSource
  Label: Source
  Group: Src
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Bulletin+of+Volcanology%22">Bulletin of Volcanology</searchLink>. Mar2025, Vol. 87 Issue 3, p1-14. 14p.
– Name: Subject
  Label: Subject Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Volcanic+activity+prediction%22">Volcanic activity prediction</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Risk+managers%22">Risk managers</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Earth+sciences%22">Earth sciences</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Volcanic+eruptions%22">Volcanic eruptions</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Sulfur+dioxide%22">Sulfur dioxide</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: As global populations grow, the exposure of communities and infrastructure to volcanic hazards increases every year. Once a volcanic eruption begins, it becomes critical for risk managers to understand the likely evolution and duration of the activity to assess its impact on populations and infrastructure. Here, we report an exponential decay in satellite-derived SO2 emission rates during the 2021 eruption of Tajogaite, La Palma, Canary Islands, and show that this pattern allows a reliable and consistent forecast of the evolution of the SO2 emissions after the first third of the total eruption duration. The eruption ended when fluxes dropped to less than 6% of their fitted maximum value, providing a useful benchmark to compare with other eruptions. Using a 1-D numerical magma ascent model, we suggest that the exponentially decreasing SO2 emission trend was primarily produced by reducing magma chamber pressure as the eruption emptied the feeding reservoir. This work highlights the key role that satellite-derived SO2 emission data can play in forecasting the evolution of volcanic eruptions and how the use of magma ascent models can inform the driving mechanisms controlling the evolution of the eruption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=enr&AN=183974256
RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1007/s00445-025-01803-6
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 14
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Volcanic activity prediction
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Risk managers
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Earth sciences
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Volcanic eruptions
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Sulfur dioxide
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Forecasting the evolution of the 2021 Tajogaite eruption, La Palma, with TROPOMI/PlumeTraj-derived SO2 emission rates.
        Type: main
  BibRelationships:
    HasContributorRelationships:
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Esse, B.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Burton, M.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Hayer, C.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: La Spina, G.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Pardo Cofrades, A.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Asensio-Ramos, M.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Barrancos, J.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Pérez, N.
    IsPartOfRelationships:
      – BibEntity:
          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 03
              Text: Mar2025
              Type: published
              Y: 2025
          Identifiers:
            – Type: issn-print
              Value: 02588900
          Numbering:
            – Type: volume
              Value: 87
            – Type: issue
              Value: 3
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Bulletin of Volcanology
              Type: main
ResultId 1