Nowcasting Floods in Detailed Scales Considering the Uncertainties Associated with impact-based Practical Applications.
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| Title: | Nowcasting Floods in Detailed Scales Considering the Uncertainties Associated with impact-based Practical Applications. |
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| Authors: | Bellos, Vasilis1 (AUTHOR) vbellos@env.duth.gr, Costanzo, Carmelina2 (AUTHOR), Kalogiros, John3 (AUTHOR), Ahmadian, Reza4 (AUTHOR), Rozos, Evangelos3 (AUTHOR), Costabile, Pierfranco2 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Water Resources Management. Jun2025, Vol. 39 Issue 8, p4205-4225. 21p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Rainfall simulators, *Atmospheric sciences, *Weather forecasting, *Weather, *Rainfall |
| Abstract: | Impact-based nowcasting systems at detailed scales, to the street level, have become essential in flood risk management. This is achieved by focusing on predicting the impacts of flood events rather than merely forecasting weather conditions. This approach leverages advancements in 2D hydrodynamic modelling, high-performance computing (HPC), and detailed rainfall forecasting to improve the precision of early warning systems. However, its real-world implementation is hindered by challenges such as the coarse temporal resolution of weather forecasts and inherent modelling uncertainties. This study investigates the uncertainties and challenges associated with impact-based nowcasting systems, using the Mandra town (Greece) as a case study. We demonstrate the feasibility of applying a comprehensive framework that integrates 2D hydrodynamic modelling, HPC, and temporally disaggregated rainfall forecasting. Our findings show that the Alternating Block Method (ABM) effectively captures storm dynamics, mitigating significant underestimations that arise from coarser forecast inputs. Additionally, we assess various flood impact indices to manage modelling uncertainties. Our results highlight that similarities exist in the flood indices when storms are mild with short return periods. However, discrepancies between indices increase with storms of longer return periods, underscoring the critical need for careful index selection. This research provides new insights into enhancing flood nowcasting accuracy and effectiveness, particularly in small to medium-sized catchments. Moreover, it offers evidence that the scientific community along with the stakeholders such as Civil Protection, local governments, and others should focus orient their efforts on more reliable flood indices, as the discrepancies between the methodologies investigated increase with the severity of the events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Database: | Energy & Power Source |
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| Header | DbId: enr DbLabel: Energy & Power Source An: 186289322 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Nowcasting Floods in Detailed Scales Considering the Uncertainties Associated with impact-based Practical Applications. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bellos%2C+Vasilis%22">Bellos, Vasilis</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> vbellos@env.duth.gr</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Costanzo%2C+Carmelina%22">Costanzo, Carmelina</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kalogiros%2C+John%22">Kalogiros, John</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ahmadian%2C+Reza%22">Ahmadian, Reza</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Rozos%2C+Evangelos%22">Rozos, Evangelos</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Costabile%2C+Pierfranco%22">Costabile, Pierfranco</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Water+Resources+Management%22">Water Resources Management</searchLink>. Jun2025, Vol. 39 Issue 8, p4205-4225. 21p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rainfall+simulators%22">Rainfall simulators</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+sciences%22">Atmospheric sciences</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Weather+forecasting%22">Weather forecasting</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Weather%22">Weather</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rainfall%22">Rainfall</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Impact-based nowcasting systems at detailed scales, to the street level, have become essential in flood risk management. This is achieved by focusing on predicting the impacts of flood events rather than merely forecasting weather conditions. This approach leverages advancements in 2D hydrodynamic modelling, high-performance computing (HPC), and detailed rainfall forecasting to improve the precision of early warning systems. However, its real-world implementation is hindered by challenges such as the coarse temporal resolution of weather forecasts and inherent modelling uncertainties. This study investigates the uncertainties and challenges associated with impact-based nowcasting systems, using the Mandra town (Greece) as a case study. We demonstrate the feasibility of applying a comprehensive framework that integrates 2D hydrodynamic modelling, HPC, and temporally disaggregated rainfall forecasting. Our findings show that the Alternating Block Method (ABM) effectively captures storm dynamics, mitigating significant underestimations that arise from coarser forecast inputs. Additionally, we assess various flood impact indices to manage modelling uncertainties. Our results highlight that similarities exist in the flood indices when storms are mild with short return periods. However, discrepancies between indices increase with storms of longer return periods, underscoring the critical need for careful index selection. This research provides new insights into enhancing flood nowcasting accuracy and effectiveness, particularly in small to medium-sized catchments. Moreover, it offers evidence that the scientific community along with the stakeholders such as Civil Protection, local governments, and others should focus orient their efforts on more reliable flood indices, as the discrepancies between the methodologies investigated increase with the severity of the events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| PLink | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=enr&AN=186289322 |
| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1007/s11269-024-03988-5 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 21 StartPage: 4205 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Rainfall simulators Type: general – SubjectFull: Atmospheric sciences Type: general – SubjectFull: Weather forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Weather Type: general – SubjectFull: Rainfall Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Nowcasting Floods in Detailed Scales Considering the Uncertainties Associated with impact-based Practical Applications. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Bellos, Vasilis – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Costanzo, Carmelina – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Kalogiros, John – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Ahmadian, Reza – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Rozos, Evangelos – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Costabile, Pierfranco IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 06 Text: Jun2025 Type: published Y: 2025 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 09204741 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 39 – Type: issue Value: 8 Titles: – TitleFull: Water Resources Management Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
