Global assessment of socio-economic drought events at the subnational scale: a comparative analysis of combined versus single drought indicators.
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| Title: | Global assessment of socio-economic drought events at the subnational scale: a comparative analysis of combined versus single drought indicators. |
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| Authors: | Kulkarni, Sneha1 (AUTHOR) snehakulkarni@g.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp, Sawada, Yohei1 (AUTHOR), Bayissa, Yared2 (AUTHOR), Wardlow, Brian3 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Hydrology & Earth System Sciences. 2025, Vol. 29 Issue 18, p4341-4370. 30p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Droughts, *Area studies, *Vegetation monitoring, *Drought forecasting |
| Geographic Terms: | Sub-Saharan Africa, India |
| Abstract: | The accurate assessment of the propagation of drought hazards to socio-economic impacts poses a significant challenge and is still less explored. To address this, we analysed a subnational disaster dataset called Geocoded Disaster (GDIS) and evaluated the skills of multiple drought indices to pinpoint global drought areas identified by GDIS. For the comparative analysis, a widely used standardised precipitation index (SPI), normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), standardised soil moisture index (SSMI), and standardised temperature index (STI) were globally computed at the subnational level for the period 2001–2021. Out of 1641 drought events recorded in GDIS, NDVI identified 1541 (93.9 %), SPI 1458 (88.8 %), STI 1439 (87.7 %), and SSMI 1376 (83.9 %). NDVI showed better performance in highly vegetated areas due to its sensitivity to precipitation and soil moisture and its inverse relationship with temperature. Recognising the limitations of single-input drought indices in capturing the complex propagation of droughts, we also introduced a novel combined drought indicator (CDI), which integrates meteorological (rainfall and temperature) and agricultural (NDVI and soil moisture) anomalies using a weighted approach to identify droughts and plays a key role in minimising inaccuracies in drought assessment. CDI successfully identified 1550 (94.5 %) of the GDIS documented drought events, outperforming all individual indices. Based on CDI, the highest frequency of severe droughts (greater than seven events) was observed in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. It also captured persistent droughts in Argentina, Brazil, the Horn of Africa, western India, and North China – areas that are highly vulnerable to socio-economic droughts. Our findings highlight the importance of using CDI for improved identification of socio-economic drought events and for prioritising regions at greater risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Database: | Energy & Power Source |
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| Header | DbId: enr DbLabel: Energy & Power Source An: 188459274 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Global assessment of socio-economic drought events at the subnational scale: a comparative analysis of combined versus single drought indicators. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kulkarni%2C+Sneha%22">Kulkarni, Sneha</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> snehakulkarni@g.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sawada%2C+Yohei%22">Sawada, Yohei</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bayissa%2C+Yared%22">Bayissa, Yared</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wardlow%2C+Brian%22">Wardlow, Brian</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Hydrology+%26+Earth+System+Sciences%22">Hydrology & Earth System Sciences</searchLink>. 2025, Vol. 29 Issue 18, p4341-4370. 30p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Droughts%22">Droughts</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Area+studies%22">Area studies</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Vegetation+monitoring%22">Vegetation monitoring</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Drought+forecasting%22">Drought forecasting</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Sub-Saharan+Africa%22">Sub-Saharan Africa</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22India%22">India</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: The accurate assessment of the propagation of drought hazards to socio-economic impacts poses a significant challenge and is still less explored. To address this, we analysed a subnational disaster dataset called Geocoded Disaster (GDIS) and evaluated the skills of multiple drought indices to pinpoint global drought areas identified by GDIS. For the comparative analysis, a widely used standardised precipitation index (SPI), normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), standardised soil moisture index (SSMI), and standardised temperature index (STI) were globally computed at the subnational level for the period 2001–2021. Out of 1641 drought events recorded in GDIS, NDVI identified 1541 (93.9 %), SPI 1458 (88.8 %), STI 1439 (87.7 %), and SSMI 1376 (83.9 %). NDVI showed better performance in highly vegetated areas due to its sensitivity to precipitation and soil moisture and its inverse relationship with temperature. Recognising the limitations of single-input drought indices in capturing the complex propagation of droughts, we also introduced a novel combined drought indicator (CDI), which integrates meteorological (rainfall and temperature) and agricultural (NDVI and soil moisture) anomalies using a weighted approach to identify droughts and plays a key role in minimising inaccuracies in drought assessment. CDI successfully identified 1550 (94.5 %) of the GDIS documented drought events, outperforming all individual indices. Based on CDI, the highest frequency of severe droughts (greater than seven events) was observed in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. It also captured persistent droughts in Argentina, Brazil, the Horn of Africa, western India, and North China – areas that are highly vulnerable to socio-economic droughts. Our findings highlight the importance of using CDI for improved identification of socio-economic drought events and for prioritising regions at greater risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.5194/hess-29-4341-2025 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 30 StartPage: 4341 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Droughts Type: general – SubjectFull: Area studies Type: general – SubjectFull: Vegetation monitoring Type: general – SubjectFull: Drought forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Sub-Saharan Africa Type: general – SubjectFull: India Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Global assessment of socio-economic drought events at the subnational scale: a comparative analysis of combined versus single drought indicators. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Kulkarni, Sneha – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Sawada, Yohei – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Bayissa, Yared – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Wardlow, Brian IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 15 M: 09 Text: 2025 Type: published Y: 2025 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 10275606 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 29 – Type: issue Value: 18 Titles: – TitleFull: Hydrology & Earth System Sciences Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
