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Water Quality deterministic and Probabilistic Health Risks Assessment using Monte Carlo Simulation: Case Study from a Semi-Arid Region.

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Title: Water Quality deterministic and Probabilistic Health Risks Assessment using Monte Carlo Simulation: Case Study from a Semi-Arid Region.
Authors: Muhammad, Said1 (AUTHOR) saidmuhammad1@gmail.com, Raza, Zeeshan2 (AUTHOR), Ali, Wajid1 (AUTHOR), Ahmad, Ashfaq3 (AUTHOR) aahmad1@ksu.edu.sa, Tokatli, Cem4 (AUTHOR), Din, Imran Ud1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Water, Air & Soil Pollution. Feb2026, Vol. 237 Issue 3, p1-19. 19p.
Subject Terms: *Water quality, *Nitrates, *Irrigation, *Composition of water, *Groundwater, *Monte Carlo method, *Hazards, *Industrial contamination
Abstract: This study comprehensively assessed the groundwater quality for drinking and irrigation, its hydrochemical characteristics, and potential health risks associated with nitrate (NO3) concentration via the oral pathway. The studied parameters were within the acceptable limits, except for TDS, turbidity, Na, K, SO4, and Cl, which exceeded the limits in 11%, 27%, 21%, 100%, 66%, and 7% of groundwater samples, respectively. Based on the water quality index (WQI), 54% of the samples were classified as good, while 42% were categorized as poor for drinking. A small percentage (2%) of each was deemed very poor or unsuitable, indicating a health risk. The sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) analysis revealed that 68% of samples were excellent for irrigation, whereas 45% and 25% were doubtful or unsuitable based on the sodium percentage (Na%). The Piper plot analysis revealed Na/K-Cl/SO4 and Na/K-HCO3 as the dominant geochemical facies. The chemical composition of groundwater was primarily influenced by natural processes such as rock-water interactions, ion exchange, and human activities. Both deterministic and probabilistic assessments suggested minimal health risks for adults and children. Sensitivity analysis highlighted the significant impact of NO3 concentration on health risks, with exposure frequency, body weight, and concentration emerging as the key influencing factors. Correlation analysis revealed that natural and anthropogenic activities were major contributors to contamination. Continuous monitoring of groundwater quality and implementing remedial actions to address contamination risks in the region are recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Database: Energy & Power Source
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Header DbId: enr
DbLabel: Energy & Power Source
An: 190506530
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
PreciseRelevancyScore: 0
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  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: Water Quality deterministic and Probabilistic Health Risks Assessment using Monte Carlo Simulation: Case Study from a Semi-Arid Region.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Muhammad%2C+Said%22">Muhammad, Said</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> saidmuhammad1@gmail.com</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Raza%2C+Zeeshan%22">Raza, Zeeshan</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ali%2C+Wajid%22">Ali, Wajid</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ahmad%2C+Ashfaq%22">Ahmad, Ashfaq</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> aahmad1@ksu.edu.sa</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Tokatli%2C+Cem%22">Tokatli, Cem</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Din%2C+Imran+Ud%22">Din, Imran Ud</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Water%2C+Air+%26+Soil+Pollution%22">Water, Air & Soil Pollution</searchLink>. Feb2026, Vol. 237 Issue 3, p1-19. 19p.
– Name: Subject
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Water+quality%22">Water quality</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Nitrates%22">Nitrates</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Irrigation%22">Irrigation</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Composition+of+water%22">Composition of water</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Groundwater%22">Groundwater</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Monte+Carlo+method%22">Monte Carlo method</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Hazards%22">Hazards</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Industrial+contamination%22">Industrial contamination</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: This study comprehensively assessed the groundwater quality for drinking and irrigation, its hydrochemical characteristics, and potential health risks associated with nitrate (NO3) concentration via the oral pathway. The studied parameters were within the acceptable limits, except for TDS, turbidity, Na, K, SO4, and Cl, which exceeded the limits in 11%, 27%, 21%, 100%, 66%, and 7% of groundwater samples, respectively. Based on the water quality index (WQI), 54% of the samples were classified as good, while 42% were categorized as poor for drinking. A small percentage (2%) of each was deemed very poor or unsuitable, indicating a health risk. The sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) analysis revealed that 68% of samples were excellent for irrigation, whereas 45% and 25% were doubtful or unsuitable based on the sodium percentage (Na%). The Piper plot analysis revealed Na/K-Cl/SO4 and Na/K-HCO3 as the dominant geochemical facies. The chemical composition of groundwater was primarily influenced by natural processes such as rock-water interactions, ion exchange, and human activities. Both deterministic and probabilistic assessments suggested minimal health risks for adults and children. Sensitivity analysis highlighted the significant impact of NO3 concentration on health risks, with exposure frequency, body weight, and concentration emerging as the key influencing factors. Correlation analysis revealed that natural and anthropogenic activities were major contributors to contamination. Continuous monitoring of groundwater quality and implementing remedial actions to address contamination risks in the region are recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1007/s11270-025-08814-1
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 19
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Water quality
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Nitrates
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Irrigation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Composition of water
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Groundwater
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Monte Carlo method
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Hazards
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Industrial contamination
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Water Quality deterministic and Probabilistic Health Risks Assessment using Monte Carlo Simulation: Case Study from a Semi-Arid Region.
        Type: main
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            NameFull: Muhammad, Said
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            NameFull: Raza, Zeeshan
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            NameFull: Ali, Wajid
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            NameFull: Ahmad, Ashfaq
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            NameFull: Tokatli, Cem
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            NameFull: Din, Imran Ud
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            – D: 01
              M: 02
              Text: Feb2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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              Value: 00496979
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              Value: 237
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              Value: 3
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Water, Air & Soil Pollution
              Type: main
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