Estimating an upper limit for primary copper supply using empirically derived mineral resource-to-production rate relationships.
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| Title: | Estimating an upper limit for primary copper supply using empirically derived mineral resource-to-production rate relationships. |
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| Authors: | Northey, Stephen A.1 (AUTHOR) stephen.northey@uts.edu.au, Walsh, Stuart D. C.2 (AUTHOR) stuart.walsh@monash.edu, Giurco, Damien P.1 (AUTHOR) damien.giurco@uts.edu.au, Mendonca Severiano, Bernardo1 (AUTHOR) Bernardo.MendoncaSeveriano@uts.edu.au, Dominish, Elsa1 (AUTHOR) Elsa.Dominish@uts.edu.au, Mudd, Gavin M.3 (AUTHOR) gmudd@bgs.ac.uk, Jowitt, Simon M.4 (AUTHOR) sjowitt@unr.edu |
| Source: | Mineral Economics: Raw Materials Report. Mar2026, Vol. 39 Issue 1, p7-23. 17p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Mineral reserves, *Copper mining, *Monte Carlo method, *Mines & mineral resources |
| Abstract: | A theoretical upper limit for the annual primary supply rate of copper is estimated under the overoptimistic assumption that all known mineral deposits can be mined simultaneously. Factors for mineral resource and reserve-to-production relationships – often referred to as Taylor's rule – were derived for specific copper deposit types and mining methods based on data for existing mining operations. These were used to estimate potential production rates with uncertainty bounds for the remaining set of known deposits that are not currently being mined. A Monte-Carlo analysis was performed and the 90% confidence intervals for the upper limit of primary supply were determined. For the deposits (n = 407) with defined mineral reserves in 2015 (640.9 Mt Cu) this was found to be 22–27 Mt Cu/year. For the broader set of deposits (n = 2296) with resource estimates in 2015 (3,054 Mt Cu) this was found to be 59–69 Mt Cu/year. Published scenarios indicate that annual primary copper demand may reach the upper primary supply limit derived from mineral reserves by the middle of this century, but not the upper limit derived from identified mineral resources. This suggests that successful conversion of mineral resources to reserves and subsequent mine development may be able to bridge potential supply-demand gaps. Further analysis of factors not considered by this study such as social and environmental considerations and the availability of labour, equipment, energy and capital into the sector may provide further insight into the upper limits of primary copper supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Database: | Energy & Power Source |
| FullText | Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: enr DbLabel: Energy & Power Source An: 191977838 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Estimating an upper limit for primary copper supply using empirically derived mineral resource-to-production rate relationships. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Northey%2C+Stephen+A%2E%22">Northey, Stephen A.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> stephen.northey@uts.edu.au</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Walsh%2C+Stuart+D%2E+C%2E%22">Walsh, Stuart D. C.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> stuart.walsh@monash.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Giurco%2C+Damien+P%2E%22">Giurco, Damien P.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> damien.giurco@uts.edu.au</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mendonca+Severiano%2C+Bernardo%22">Mendonca Severiano, Bernardo</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> Bernardo.MendoncaSeveriano@uts.edu.au</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dominish%2C+Elsa%22">Dominish, Elsa</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> Elsa.Dominish@uts.edu.au</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mudd%2C+Gavin+M%2E%22">Mudd, Gavin M.</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> gmudd@bgs.ac.uk</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jowitt%2C+Simon+M%2E%22">Jowitt, Simon M.</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> sjowitt@unr.edu</i> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Mineral+Economics%3A+Raw+Materials+Report%22">Mineral Economics: Raw Materials Report</searchLink>. Mar2026, Vol. 39 Issue 1, p7-23. 17p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mineral+reserves%22">Mineral reserves</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Copper+mining%22">Copper mining</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Monte+Carlo+method%22">Monte Carlo method</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mines+%26+mineral+resources%22">Mines & mineral resources</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: A theoretical upper limit for the annual primary supply rate of copper is estimated under the overoptimistic assumption that all known mineral deposits can be mined simultaneously. Factors for mineral resource and reserve-to-production relationships – often referred to as Taylor's rule – were derived for specific copper deposit types and mining methods based on data for existing mining operations. These were used to estimate potential production rates with uncertainty bounds for the remaining set of known deposits that are not currently being mined. A Monte-Carlo analysis was performed and the 90% confidence intervals for the upper limit of primary supply were determined. For the deposits (n = 407) with defined mineral reserves in 2015 (640.9 Mt Cu) this was found to be 22–27 Mt Cu/year. For the broader set of deposits (n = 2296) with resource estimates in 2015 (3,054 Mt Cu) this was found to be 59–69 Mt Cu/year. Published scenarios indicate that annual primary copper demand may reach the upper primary supply limit derived from mineral reserves by the middle of this century, but not the upper limit derived from identified mineral resources. This suggests that successful conversion of mineral resources to reserves and subsequent mine development may be able to bridge potential supply-demand gaps. Further analysis of factors not considered by this study such as social and environmental considerations and the availability of labour, equipment, energy and capital into the sector may provide further insight into the upper limits of primary copper supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1007/s13563-025-00558-y Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 17 StartPage: 7 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Mineral reserves Type: general – SubjectFull: Copper mining Type: general – SubjectFull: Monte Carlo method Type: general – SubjectFull: Mines & mineral resources Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Estimating an upper limit for primary copper supply using empirically derived mineral resource-to-production rate relationships. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Northey, Stephen A. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Walsh, Stuart D. C. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Giurco, Damien P. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Mendonca Severiano, Bernardo – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Dominish, Elsa – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Mudd, Gavin M. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Jowitt, Simon M. IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 03 Text: Mar2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 21912203 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 39 – Type: issue Value: 1 Titles: – TitleFull: Mineral Economics: Raw Materials Report Type: main |
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