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Evaluating the long-term influence of climate change on rainfall erosivity in the Jhelum Catchment: a GCM-based analysis.

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Title: Evaluating the long-term influence of climate change on rainfall erosivity in the Jhelum Catchment: a GCM-based analysis.
Authors: Islam, Shahid Ul1,2 (AUTHOR) shahid@bgsbu.ac.in, Chakma, Sumedha1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Environment, Development & Sustainability. Mar2026, Vol. 28 Issue 3, p7425-7442. 18p.
Subject Terms: *General circulation model, *Soil erosion, *Watersheds, *Atmospheric models, *Climate change, *Climate change models, *Land management
Geographic Terms: India
Abstract: This study aims to assess the long-term impacts of climate change on rainfall erosivity in the Jhelum Catchment, India. The primary research question addresses the temporal variation in erosivity under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, employing General Circulation Models (GCM) from the CMIP6 phase. Six GCMs, including ACCESS-CM2, CanESM5, INM-CM5-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR, were utilized to analyze rainfall erosivity. The study explores the correlation between erosivity and climate change by incorporating SSP scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) over the period 2020 to 2090. The methodology involves a detailed examination of model correlations and statistical precision. The study reveals a progressive rise in Rainfall Erosivity (R) values, indicating heightened susceptibility to soil erosion from 2020 to 2090. Notably, IPSL-CM6A-LR and MPI-ESM1-2-HR models exhibit positive correlations with IMD precipitation, establishing their suitability for analyzing climate change effects in the Jhelum Catchment. The average R value increases from 798.804 (MJ-mm/ha/h/yr) in 2020 to projected values of 1551.57 by 2090 under SSP585, highlighting the substantial impact of climate change on erosivity. The results underscores the urgency of addressing climate-induced soil erosion in the Jhelum Catchment. The implications extend beyond local contexts, providing valuable insights for global climate change resilience. By enhancing our understanding of erosivity dynamics, this research contributes to interdisciplinary efforts and calls for proactive measures in sustainable land management and environmental policy. Highlights: The research investigates climate change's direct impact on rainfall erosivity in the Jhelum Catchment, emphasizing factors like intensity, duration, and frequency. Conducted in the data-deficit Jhelum Catchment, the study, utilizing GCMs, identifies IPSL-CM6A-LR and MPI-ESM1-2-HR models for comprehensive analysis of future rainfall erosivity trends. Temporal analysis from 2020 to 2090 reveals a progressive increase in Rainfall Erosivity (R) values, urging urgent mitigation efforts to address heightened soil erosion risks. Under SSP scenarios, the study presents specific erosivity values, emphasizing the substantial impact of climate change on the Jhelum Catchment, necessitating targeted strategies for sustainable land management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Database: Energy & Power Source
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An: 192418073
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PubType: Academic Journal
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  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: Evaluating the long-term influence of climate change on rainfall erosivity in the Jhelum Catchment: a GCM-based analysis.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Islam%2C+Shahid+Ul%22">Islam, Shahid Ul</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> shahid@bgsbu.ac.in</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Chakma%2C+Sumedha%22">Chakma, Sumedha</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Environment%2C+Development+%26+Sustainability%22">Environment, Development & Sustainability</searchLink>. Mar2026, Vol. 28 Issue 3, p7425-7442. 18p.
– Name: Subject
  Label: Subject Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22General+circulation+model%22">General circulation model</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Soil+erosion%22">Soil erosion</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Watersheds%22">Watersheds</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+models%22">Atmospheric models</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change+models%22">Climate change models</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Land+management%22">Land management</searchLink>
– Name: SubjectGeographic
  Label: Geographic Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22India%22">India</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: This study aims to assess the long-term impacts of climate change on rainfall erosivity in the Jhelum Catchment, India. The primary research question addresses the temporal variation in erosivity under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, employing General Circulation Models (GCM) from the CMIP6 phase. Six GCMs, including ACCESS-CM2, CanESM5, INM-CM5-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR, were utilized to analyze rainfall erosivity. The study explores the correlation between erosivity and climate change by incorporating SSP scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) over the period 2020 to 2090. The methodology involves a detailed examination of model correlations and statistical precision. The study reveals a progressive rise in Rainfall Erosivity (R) values, indicating heightened susceptibility to soil erosion from 2020 to 2090. Notably, IPSL-CM6A-LR and MPI-ESM1-2-HR models exhibit positive correlations with IMD precipitation, establishing their suitability for analyzing climate change effects in the Jhelum Catchment. The average R value increases from 798.804 (MJ-mm/ha/h/yr) in 2020 to projected values of 1551.57 by 2090 under SSP585, highlighting the substantial impact of climate change on erosivity. The results underscores the urgency of addressing climate-induced soil erosion in the Jhelum Catchment. The implications extend beyond local contexts, providing valuable insights for global climate change resilience. By enhancing our understanding of erosivity dynamics, this research contributes to interdisciplinary efforts and calls for proactive measures in sustainable land management and environmental policy. Highlights: The research investigates climate change's direct impact on rainfall erosivity in the Jhelum Catchment, emphasizing factors like intensity, duration, and frequency. Conducted in the data-deficit Jhelum Catchment, the study, utilizing GCMs, identifies IPSL-CM6A-LR and MPI-ESM1-2-HR models for comprehensive analysis of future rainfall erosivity trends. Temporal analysis from 2020 to 2090 reveals a progressive increase in Rainfall Erosivity (R) values, urging urgent mitigation efforts to address heightened soil erosion risks. Under SSP scenarios, the study presents specific erosivity values, emphasizing the substantial impact of climate change on the Jhelum Catchment, necessitating targeted strategies for sustainable land management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1007/s10668-024-05286-x
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 18
        StartPage: 7425
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: General circulation model
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Soil erosion
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Watersheds
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Land management
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: India
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Evaluating the long-term influence of climate change on rainfall erosivity in the Jhelum Catchment: a GCM-based analysis.
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          Name:
            NameFull: Islam, Shahid Ul
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          Name:
            NameFull: Chakma, Sumedha
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          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 03
              Text: Mar2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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              Value: 28
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            – TitleFull: Environment, Development & Sustainability
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