Unlocking Seasonal Capacity Value: A Sub-Annual Capacity Market for Economic Robustness.
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| Title: | Unlocking Seasonal Capacity Value: A Sub-Annual Capacity Market for Economic Robustness. |
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| Authors: | Meng, Qingmeng1 (AUTHOR), Zhang, Shuailong2 (AUTHOR) zhangsl23@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn, Zhao, Xingquan3 (AUTHOR), Zou, Peng4 (AUTHOR), Zhi, Huiqiang1 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Energies (19961073). Apr2026, Vol. 19 Issue 8, p1924. 23p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Renewable energy sources, *Economic equilibrium, *Energy industries, *Energy consumption |
| Abstract: | As variable renewable energy penetration increases, resource adequacy becomes strongly seasonal, while annual accreditation can mask temporal reliability differences. This paper proposes a Sub-Annual Capacity Market and compares it with an Annual Capacity Market and an uncapped Energy-Only benchmark. Capacity credits are calculated using a marginal ELCC formulation based on Expected Energy Not Served and embedded into phase-specific clearing constraints. Using a Shanxi case study, we examine both deterministic and stochastic settings with 151 jointly perturbed load and renewable scenarios. Results show that ACM and SubACM can both approximate EO outcomes when parameters are well calibrated, but SubACM yields more stable economic performance under uncertainty, with 29% lower cost-deviation standard deviation and 67% fewer tail-risk scenarios, as confirmed by formal dispersion tests. The main benefit of sub-annual design is improved temporal alignment between capacity payments and physical reliability contribution, rather than guaranteed large average cost reductions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Database: | Energy & Power Source |
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| FullText | Links: – Type: pdflink Text: Availability: 1 |
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| Header | DbId: enr DbLabel: Energy & Power Source An: 193438264 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Unlocking Seasonal Capacity Value: A Sub-Annual Capacity Market for Economic Robustness. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Meng%2C+Qingmeng%22">Meng, Qingmeng</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zhang%2C+Shuailong%22">Zhang, Shuailong</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> zhangsl23@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zhao%2C+Xingquan%22">Zhao, Xingquan</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zou%2C+Peng%22">Zou, Peng</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zhi%2C+Huiqiang%22">Zhi, Huiqiang</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Energies+%2819961073%29%22">Energies (19961073)</searchLink>. Apr2026, Vol. 19 Issue 8, p1924. 23p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Renewable+energy+sources%22">Renewable energy sources</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Economic+equilibrium%22">Economic equilibrium</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Energy+industries%22">Energy industries</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Energy+consumption%22">Energy consumption</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: As variable renewable energy penetration increases, resource adequacy becomes strongly seasonal, while annual accreditation can mask temporal reliability differences. This paper proposes a Sub-Annual Capacity Market and compares it with an Annual Capacity Market and an uncapped Energy-Only benchmark. Capacity credits are calculated using a marginal ELCC formulation based on Expected Energy Not Served and embedded into phase-specific clearing constraints. Using a Shanxi case study, we examine both deterministic and stochastic settings with 151 jointly perturbed load and renewable scenarios. Results show that ACM and SubACM can both approximate EO outcomes when parameters are well calibrated, but SubACM yields more stable economic performance under uncertainty, with 29% lower cost-deviation standard deviation and 67% fewer tail-risk scenarios, as confirmed by formal dispersion tests. The main benefit of sub-annual design is improved temporal alignment between capacity payments and physical reliability contribution, rather than guaranteed large average cost reductions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| PLink | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=enr&AN=193438264 |
| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.3390/en19081924 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 23 StartPage: 1924 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Renewable energy sources Type: general – SubjectFull: Economic equilibrium Type: general – SubjectFull: Energy industries Type: general – SubjectFull: Energy consumption Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Unlocking Seasonal Capacity Value: A Sub-Annual Capacity Market for Economic Robustness. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Meng, Qingmeng – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Zhang, Shuailong – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Zhao, Xingquan – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Zou, Peng – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Zhi, Huiqiang IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 15 M: 04 Text: Apr2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 19961073 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 19 – Type: issue Value: 8 Titles: – TitleFull: Energies (19961073) Type: main |
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